2014 TDF Green Jersey

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I though this was worth discussion now Sagan seem to be coming off the boil (in general, but particularly in bunch sprints).

The scoring system is heavily biased in favour of pan flat sprinters, so he was already relying on a lack of a dominant flat sprinter, such as we've seen the last 2 years, and his ability to finish top 4 every relevant stage + taking points where others can't.

If Cav or Kittel can lock out the flat wins, it's looking a lot more questionable whether Sagan can finish top 3/4 often enough to make his lumpy advantage count this year.

 

[SKSemtex]

I voted yes. If Kittel will be unbeatable in all flat stages and Degenkolb will be able to take from Sagan most of the mountain points, then yes, HIS green jersey can be in danger but he will still be able to get it.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

4th place takes 19 points less than 1st in a sprint stage, whilst the sort of stage he can win and the sprinters can't bags 30 or 20 points. Given the ratio of the two, he really does need to be 4th or better most days.

 

[Jspear]

Even with a "weaker" Sagan, I still think he'll win the green jersey. The past two years he has completely dominated the jersey. No one was even close to competing with him. I could see someone getting closer, but I don't think anyone will beat him. And the fact remains he could come to the Tour as strong as ever....we just don't know.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Even with a "weaker" Sagan, I still think he'll win the green jersey. The past two years he has completely dominated the jersey. No one was even close to competing with him. I could see someone getting closer, but I don't think anyone will beat him. And the fact remains he could come to the Tour as strong as ever....we just don't know.

He's won 2 years where there was no dominant sprinter.

If there was one, he would have been struggling to win rather than dominating. As with most things, I suspect people are struggling to comprehend the future being different to the recent past here, because the scoring system is extremely unfavourable for him if Kittel or Cav get on a roll.

 

[SKSemtex]

He's won 2 years where there was no dominant sprinter.

If there was one, he would have been struggling to win rather than dominating. As with most things, I suspect people are struggling to comprehend the future being different to the recent past here, because the scoring system is extremely unfavourable for him if Kittel or Cav get on a roll.

On the other hand this year route looks much more to his favour than last year. (at least from the pieces of info we have so far). I still hope Kittel will not take more then 4 stages and that will decide. If he takes more yes he might take it.
It is hard to imagine this year Cav rolling more then Kittel.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

On the other hand this year route looks much more to his favour than last year. (at least from the pieces of info we have so far). I still hope Kittel will not take more then 4 stages and that will decide. If he takes more yes he might take it.
It is hard to imagine this year Cav rolling more then Kittel.

I know it's popular folk knowledge that Cav is past it, but the reality is he won more GT stages than anyone last year (despite being ill for the Tour), scored more CQ points than in any other year of his career, and has won more races than any other sprinter so far this year. If he's past it, Kittel needs to get a shift one because he's less than 3 years younger so the end is nigh...

 

[SKSemtex]

Ooo I know very well what is Cav capable of. I rely on him. He is Sagans main "domestique" in his fight against Kittel for this fight for green.

 

[RedheadDane]

I definitely think Sagan can still take it.
A weaker Sagan might simply mean that he'll "only" win with about 20 points, as opposed to his 97 point margen to Cav last year.

 

[Jspear]

He's won 2 years where there was no dominant sprinter.

If there was one, he would have been struggling to win rather than dominating. As with most things, I suspect people are struggling to comprehend the future being different to the recent past here, because the scoring system is extremely unfavourable for him if Kittel or Cav get on a roll.

I don't think there will a very dominant sprinter this year either. I personally think the sprints will be divided up between several "top" sprinters.

 

[thequestionmark]

Last year Kittel wasn't interested in the green jersey. He never participated at the intermediate sprints. He won most of the stages. Don't see him contesting the green jersey this year.

If Cavendish doesn't win at least 5 stages, Sagan gets the jersey.

 

[VeloHuman]

The rise of Kittel is great news for Sagan. Cavendish now finds points harder to come by on the pan-flat stages, but Kittel himself won't really challenge for green because he's not versatile enough.

 

[kingjr]

Greipel might want to give it a serious shot this year, don't see him winning it though, Sagan to take it for a 3rd time.

 

[SKSemtex]

A lot might depend on team dedication to "leaving Sagan". I wonder if we can see the similar dedication as in stage 7 last year.

 

[TANK91]

It will be Kittel i so hope it isn't though so disrespectful, im ill? Ha ha Kittel you chicken you won two stages and pulled out o you got the set you thought im not going to Italy.

 

[orangerider]

Sagan has a good chance. The pancake flat stages will be won between Kittel and Cavendish, with Greipel taking in a stage or two when they both get caught out, so no sprint domination this year. We all know Cavendish just sits up when he knows he's going to lose and Kittel and Greipel have no chance of Green. Sagan knows the Tour well and he isn't going to come into it taking it lightly.

 

[Pricey_sky]

I still think Sagan will take the jersey, it would take a sprinter to win 5/6 stages to put real pressure on him and I just can't see it. Kittel and Cav will win their fair share and Greipel will win one too. However without any of them dominating they just end up taking points off each other.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I'm hoping to see Demare targeting the green jersey. Tall order this year, but I can see him being a main player in the future.

This year, Sagan will dominate again.

 

[SafeBet]

If Giro version of Kittel shows up (with a better train) he's taking the green jersey home, along with some 4 or 5 wins.

 

[bikeracer33]

Last year Kittel wasn't interested in the green jersey. He never participated at the intermediate sprints. He won most of the stages. Don't see him contesting the green jersey this year.

If Cavendish doesn't win at least 5 stages, Sagan gets the jersey.

Kittel again says he isn't interested in the green jersey this year. All he wants is stage wins. I think Sagan has the firepower to literally fight for it this time since it wont be as easy as in past years.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

It will be Kittel i so hope it isn't though so disrespectful, im ill? Ha ha Kittel you chicken you won two stages and pulled out o you got the set you thought im not going to Italy.

I actually don't understand what you mean here. I got it until "chicken", after that I have no clue whatsoever what you mean.

But just as Kittel has been mentioned, I can't imagine Kittel pulling out with no good reason so early when there were still two "easy" sage wins before any serious stage. Why would he or Giant do that? Tomorrow he could have been out of the time limit if he wanted to quit, only going for stage wins. But only doing 3 days doesn't make sense what so ever, even if he wanted to quit the race before it got hard. Personally I was pretty sure he'd quit early, but that early on purpose? No way, it doesn't make any sense.

 

[roundabout]

4th place takes 19 points less than 1st in a sprint stage, whilst the sort of stage he can win and the sprinters can't bags 30 or 20 points. Given the ratio of the two, he really does need to be 4th or better most days.

The cobbled stage is rated a flat stage

Nancy should be as well (not 100% sure about that).

If all goes well for Sagan he can gain significant points on his competition on those 2 "sprint" stages alone.

 

[Netserk]

And then there's stage 2, 9 (I know a break will take it and it has a long flat part in the end, but maybe Cav won't be in the peloton for the bunch sprint behind), 11 & 12.

 

[Pentacycle]

Alexander Kristoff not in the poll? He's got a better shot at this than Greipel and Kittel IMO.

 

[staubsauger]

It's a shame Kittel pulled out of the Giro. He totally owned the competition and might won 5 stages already by now, putting out a Pettachi be like performance.

Let's watch out what he can do at the Tour. Cav seems to be back on fire as well. It's gonna be a tough time for Sagan