2015 Vuelta stage 5: Rota > Alcalá de Guadaíra 167.3km

[Flamin]

The peloton spends another day in Andalucía. This time they head inland, passing through the capital Sevilla and finishing in Alcalá de Guadaira, a few kilometers further east.

Not much to say here. The last 750m are at 4%. Fast run-in before the last k, with a roundabout at approx. 700m followed by a 90° left turn at 500m.

Sagan FTW.

 

[jsem94]

Sagan has been really strong. Can't really see him being beaten on this finale.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Hopefully Degenkolb, while Sagan keeps on going to 2nd place finishes, with stage 3 having been the outlier...

 

[Escarabajo]

Sagan FTW!!

 

[Valv.Piti]

Once again, a completely flat lead in, unfortunately.

I guess Valv wont even bother. That means either Sagan or Degen I suppose, maybe Bouhanni. Sagan is the clear cut favorite (I havent even checked the odds, could imagine them being under 2,5, even), so imma stick with him.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Welp, looks like one it's best I don't watch.

Allez Nacer. Club Slovak Barbosa like a baby seal.

 

[Descender]

Re:

Sagan has been really strong. Can't really see him being beaten on this finale.

He'll find a way to be second again like the bona fide loser he is.

 

[Tank Engine]

Re:

Sagan has been really strong. Can't really see him being beaten on this finale.

Me predicting a Sagan win often leads to such wonders But this is about as Saganesque as you can get.

2. Johnie D
3. Bouhanni

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Welp, looks like one it's best I don't watch.

Allez Nacer. Club Slovak Barbosa like a baby seal.

Nacer will win by by TKO (lead hook).

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Sagan has been really strong. Can't really see him being beaten on this finale.

He'll find a way to be second again like the bona fide loser he is.

Loser? Over the last 5 years he has 69 wins. I think only Cavendish has more victories than Sagan in this period (I haven't checked though).

Prediction time:

1. Sagan
2. Bouhanni
3. Degenkolb
4. Ewan
5. Sbaragli

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

Welp, looks like one it's best I don't watch.

Allez Nacer. Club Slovak Barbosa like a baby seal.

Nacer will win by by TKO (lead hook).

Make it fish hook, and we have a deal.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Sagan. Fastest sprinter (sorry Bouhanni) and overall the strongest rider in this Vuelta. Almost did it today on territory not favouring him, so surely tomorrow cannot go wrong.

 

[Mr.White]

Nacer for me, Sagan will feel today's effort

 

[Descender]

Re: Re:

Sagan has been really strong. Can't really see him being beaten on this finale.

He'll find a way to be second again like the bona fide loser he is.

Loser? Over the last 5 years he has 69 wins. I think only Cavendish has more victories than Sagan in this period (I haven't checked though).

Prediction time:

1. Sagan
2. Bouhanni
3. Degenkolb
4. Ewan
5. Sbaragli

Cavendish has actually won meaningful stuff and not *** himself every time an important moment comes.

 

[Red Rick]

Wait, I didn't realise it was time to piss on Sagan again for no reason

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Sagan has been really strong. Can't really see him being beaten on this finale.

He'll find a way to be second again like the bona fide loser he is.

Loser? Over the last 5 years he has 69 wins. I think only Cavendish has more victories than Sagan in this period (I haven't checked though).

Prediction time:

1. Sagan
2. Bouhanni
3. Degenkolb
4. Ewan
5. Sbaragli

Cavendish has actually won meaningful stuff and not **** himself every time an important moment comes.

He won plenty enough for his 25yrs of age...

 

[Jspear]

1. Sagan
2. Degenkolb
3. Bouhanni
4. Sbaragli
5. Drucker

 

[BigMac]

Re:

Wait, I didn't realise it was time to piss on Sagan again for no reason

Descender literally only descends upon this forum to slag off one of Sagan or Costa.

It's funny to be fair.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Sagan has been really strong. Can't really see him being beaten on this finale.

He'll find a way to be second again like the bona fide loser he is.

Loser? Over the last 5 years he has 69 wins. I think only Cavendish has more victories than Sagan in this period (I haven't checked though).

Prediction time:

1. Sagan
2. Bouhanni
3. Degenkolb
4. Ewan
5. Sbaragli

Since 2011, Cavendish has 82 wins, Sagan 69, Greipel 61 and Kittel 60.

During this period:
[*]Cavendish - World RR and 22 Grand Tour Stage Wins (+ Scheldeprijs)
[*]Sagan - 7 Grand Tour Stage Wins and 2 Big Classics (Gent-Wevelgem & E3)
[*]Greipel - 11 Grand Tour Stage Wins (+ Vattenfall if anyone actually counts that as a big classic)
[*]Kittel - 10 Grand Tour Stage Wins (+ 3x Scheldeprijs)

So as far as victories are concerned, Sagan lags behind a bit in terms of prestige of his wins in the last 4.5 years. Then if you start considering the points classification at GTs (which obviously doesn't count as a victory as far as the stats go, but are clearly major prizes):

[*]Cavendish - TdF Green Jersey, Giro Red Jersey (to complete his set)
[*]Sagan - 4x TdF Green Jersey
[*]Greipel - Nada
[*]Kittel - Nada

Then, as far as being a 'bona fide loser' goes, you're clearly lacking and have no chance of winning. Well if you consider near misses, Sagan has been on the podium at:

Amstel Gold, RVV, MSR, Strade Bianche.

He has also been in the top 10 at the worlds RR when he's not had any course that's really been suited to him (and at PR, though the way it panned out, that was quite favourable to him)

 

[roundabout]

Somewhat funny to read about WC courses not being really suited to him considering his characteristics.

And he got his best WC result on a course that's arguably the least suited to him, so his lack of WC results are not because of the routes used.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

Somewhat funny to read about WC courses not being really suited to him considering his characteristics.

And he got his best WC result on a course that's arguably the least suited to him, so his lack of WC results are not because of the routes used.

In fairness, though I can't really understand how, say, Ponferrada wasn't suited to him, the most clearly suited WC course to him since he turned pro was in his neo-pro year so it isn't surprising that he wasn't able to win that year.

 

[Gigs_98]

I would be really surprised if sagan doesnt win tomorrow. An easy uphill bunch sprint is the absolute best you can do to him, as a race organizer.

 

[De Snelle Duif]

Re: Re:

[quote="Hugo Koblet
Prediction time:

1. Sagan
2. Bouhanni
3. Degenkolb
4. Ewan
5. Sbaragli[/quote]

Prediciting Sbaragli for a minor placing is too easy

I think Rojas will be there too, and Goncalves seems to have good form.

 

[42x16ss]

Ewan to really get amongst it, top 3 minimum. It's taken the very top sprinters (Cav, Kristoff, Kittel, Greipel) to beat him, and it's still early, so fatigue shouldn't be an issue.

 

[Stelvio]

There is also a roundabout with a single-lane passage with ~100 meters to go. The last bit also looks like it gets a little bit steeper, best to keep a little reserve for that. The finish is on top of the hill: Valverde scouting