2019 Giro CQ game

Some of you already know all this, and just need the nod to get started, but it is great to have new players.

Your team
You need to name 8 riders who will be on the startline for the Giro, and who have a total CQ value for the 12 months to 5th May (the Sunday before the start) of 3500 or less. Those prices are as reported in the CQ download published on 6th May.
If you pick a rider who is not on the final startlist, or your team is overbudget, I will use the next cheapest replacement from the same team, or the cheapest rider in the game if that isn't possible.[sup]1[/sup]
There is a spreadsheet available on Dropbox that will help you get your 8 men within budget, and arrange it for submission.

Entering the game
Send your team to me by PM on either Velorooms or Cycling News forums. If you do not have sufficient posts to your name at CN, then you will find no such restriction at Velorooms. (I sent my team to Koronin on Monday evening, but had to change it when Osorio was removed from the line-up)
Please send your riders' names only (not the price, not their team, preferably not even a following space) in CQ format (Surname then forename, both family names for Spanish and Portuguese riders). If you use the spreadsheet, that will be easy.
Entries must be sent in before the race starts, which is 16:45 local time on 11th May. If you don't wait until the last moment, I will have a better chance of warning you if there is a problem with the team.

The game
Your riders will get points for stage positions (70 for the winner, down to 1 for 10th), for starting a stage in the pink jersey (18 points) and for their standings in the points and mountains categories (but not the U25s) with points given on the same scale, and GC standing (ranging from 500 for the leader to 16 for 50th, and 15 for everyone else). Those standings points can obviously increase or decrease, and gradually become a closer indication of what the final scores will be as the race goes on.
I will update daily, allowing you to become very optimistic until your top performers eventually drop away and/or withdraw from the race.

There is a secondary competition, which I will do differently from previous years, and for which I will probably try to find some name other than the cyclamen ranking. Every one of our teams will have a score each day which is the sum of stage points, perhaps pink jersey points, and fluctuations in the three standings competitions: the top ten teams will gain points, in the same scale as stage points, which will comprise the subsidiary competition. This is similar to the Green points sub-ranking I ran in the recent Spring Classics game.

Enjoy the game, and good luck to your team.


[size=8pt][1]: If 2 riders are joint cheapest, I'll use the first one alphabetically. With the teams now confirmed, you risk ending up with Sho Hatsuyama of Nippo Vini Fantini.[/size]

Entries (to Saturday morning, still 6 and a bit hours from the timestamp of this for last minute entries)
AmisVelo
ArchieBoy
Armchair_Cyclist
BicycleBoy
BikeRacer33
BluesInTheBottle
Bminchow
Carlo_Algatrensig
ChrisDK
Comodoro
Del1962
DJSprtsch
Fauniera
Flo
GodChild
Josedin
JustSomeGuy
Karaev
Kazistuta
Koronin
Laarsland
Leadbelly
LosBrolin
Mellow_Velo
Minessa
Nathanptz
Otoxiep87
Rote_Laterne
SafeBet
Salvarani
Scrool07
Search
Shalgo
Squire
Tobydawq
Torcia86
TotalPackage
Triley36
Vladimir
Will10
Yellow_Knight

If you go 24 hours after sending me your team without seeing it here, it might be worth sending me a follow-up PM or mentioning it on the thread.
 
Re:

Koronin said:
As a note, Valverde himself made the announcement that due to his injury he will not be racing the Giro as he hasn't healed enough yet.
I'm going to guess that yours is the only team whose selection that might have affected, but thanks for the heads up. I aim to revisit the selector spreadsheet once a day to update it.
 
Re: Re:

Armchair cyclist said:
Koronin said:
As a note, Valverde himself made the announcement that due to his injury he will not be racing the Giro as he hasn't healed enough yet.
I'm going to guess that yours is the only team whose selection that might have affected, but thanks for the heads up. I aim to revisit the selector spreadsheet once a day to update it.

Surprisingly not as due to his disastrous winter/spring I don't have much confidence in him doing anything at all the rest of the season.
 
Re:

SafeBet said:
Only 3 teams didn't pick a 700+ point rider in 2018, and roughly half of them picked 2. I'm curious to see who will follow this kind of strategy this year.
But the true lesson from last year is that you needed to have Yates on your team to win so that should be everybody's first pick
 
Re: Re:

Tigerion said:
SafeBet said:
Only 3 teams didn't pick a 700+ point rider in 2018, and roughly half of them picked 2. I'm curious to see who will follow this kind of strategy this year.
But the true lesson from last year is that you needed to have Yates on your team to win so that should be everybody's first pick
There's the slight problem he's twice as expensive now :(
 
The start list is now confirmed, barring last minute replacements due to injury or other unforeseen situation.

11 teams have been entered for the game so far, nominating 36 riders, 5 of whom are on more than half the teams. One team has the maximum possible popularity ranking at present.

There have been more riders costing over 700 points selected than costing under 100.
 
21 teams in so far. Three riders are way ahead of the rest in terms of popularity, and one of them is an almost universal pick.

I am out on Saturday and Sunday, so if you want to be warned of any problem with your team and have a chance to change it, I will need to have it by mid-morning on Saturday.

It also means that I will probably not do the full listing of teams and analysis until late on Sunday, maybe Monday, and Saturday results might be brief, or delayed.
 
This morning's inbox brings the game up to 41 teams so far, with time left for those who like leaving things until the last minute.

I will only have odd bits of time to get in front of my computer for the next few days, and my poor typing and hit and miss Excel skills mean that I don't produce data very efficiently.

So team lists, rider popularity tables, similarity of major picks, and even the results of the first couple of stages will on an uncertain schedule, unless...

If anyone thinks they can make sense of a rather raw version of the spreadsheet, and post some useful data here and on Velorooms, then contact me within the next 20 minutes or so, and I'll give you the dropbox link.
 
45 teams in the end, 72 different riders

Riders sorted by price, unique picks have an asterisk


Amis Velo

NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
SIVAKOV Pavel
VILLELLA Davide *
BATTAGLIN Enrico
O'CONNOR Ben

Archie Boy
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio
NIBALI Vincenzo
MASNADA Fausto
LANDA MEANA Mikel
SIVAKOV Pavel
CIMOLAI Davide
O'CONNOR Ben
SENNI Manuel

Armchair Cyclist

ROGLIC Primoz
NIBALI Vincenzo
KANGERT Tanel
MOSCHETTI Matteo
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
HENAO GOMEZ Sebastian
O'CONNOR Ben
SENNI Manuel

Bicycle Boy
YATES Simon
NIBALI Vincenzo
GALLOPIN Tony
DUPONT Hubert
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben
O'CONNOR Ben
AGNOLI Valerio

BikeRacer33
ROGLIC Primoz
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
GASTAUER Ben *
POLJANSKI Pawel *
GAROSIO Andrea
COVILI Luca

Blues in the Bottle
YATES Simon
SOSA CUERVO Ivan Ramiro
NIBALI Vincenzo
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
O'CONNOR Ben
GAROSIO Andrea
RENSHAW Mark
ORSINI Umberto

Bminchow
JUNGELS Bob
NIBALI Vincenzo
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
SIVAKOV Pavel
MOSCHETTI Matteo
O'CONNOR Ben
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey

Carlo_Algatrensig
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
MASNADA Fausto
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
NIZZOLO Giacomo
SIVAKOV Pavel
MODOLO Sacha
O'CONNOR Ben

ChrisDK
SOSA CUERVO Ivan Ramiro
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
LANDA MEANA Mikel
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
VUILLERMOZ Alexis
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben
O'CONNOR Ben

Comodoro
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
SIVAKOV Pavel
BATTAGLIN Enrico
MODOLO Sacha
O'CONNOR Ben

Del1962
MAJKA Rafal
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
O'CONNOR Ben
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey

DJ Sprtsch
FORMOLO Davide
NIBALI Vincenzo
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
DE PLUS Laurens *
CONSONNI Simone *
LUDVIGSSON Tobias *
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban

Fauniera
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
CICCONE Giulio
SIVAKOV Pavel
KANGERT Tanel
FLOREZ LOPEZ Miguel Eduardo

Flo
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
CIMOLAI Davide
HIRT Jan
O'CONNOR Ben

God Child
DUMOULIN Tom *
NIBALI Vincenzo
SIVAKOV Pavel
MODOLO Sacha
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
SENNI Manuel
RENSHAW Mark
HATSUYAMA Sho

Googolplex
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
LANDA MEANA Mikel
CARTHY Hugh
KANGERT Tanel
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
SCHWARZMANN Michael *

Josedin
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio
NIBALI Vincenzo
NIZZOLO Giacomo
CICCONE Giulio
SIVAKOV Pavel
DE GENDT Thomas
BATTAGLIN Enrico
FRAPPORTI Marco

Just Some Guy
YATES Simon
NIBALI Vincenzo
GIBBONS Ryan
ANTUNES Amaro Manuel Reposo
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
BARBIN Enrico *
O'CONNOR Ben
SENNI Manuel

Karaev
ROGLIC Primoz
NIBALI Vincenzo
SIVAKOV Pavel
MOSCHETTI Matteo
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
O'CONNOR Ben
SENNI Manuel
AGNOLI Valerio

Kazistuta
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
NIZZOLO Giacomo
MODOLO Sacha
MOSCHETTI Matteo
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban

Koronin
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello *
NIBALI Vincenzo
LANDA MEANA Mikel
CAMPENAERTS Victor *
KUSS Sepp *
NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel *
LOBATO DEL VALLE Juan Jose *
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd *

Laarsland
FORMOLO Davide
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
MOSCHETTI Matteo
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
O'CONNOR Ben

Leadbelly
ROGLIC Primoz
NIBALI Vincenzo
LANDA MEANA Mikel
ANTUNES Amaro Manuel Reposo
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben
AGNOLI Valerio
COVILI Luca
ORSINI Umberto

LightBing
JUNGELS Bob
MAJKA Rafal
NIBALI Vincenzo
ZAKARIN Ilnur
GIBBONS Ryan
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey
FRAPPORTI Marco
SENNI Manuel

Los Brolin

ROGLIC Primoz
NIBALI Vincenzo
LANDA MEANA Mikel
MONTAGUTI Matteo *
O'CONNOR Ben
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey
RENSHAW Mark
COVILI Luca

Mellow Velo
ROGLIC Primoz
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
O'CONNOR Ben
CLARKE William
COVILI Luca
ORSINI Umberto

Minessa
FORMOLO Davide
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
LANDA MEANA Mikel
DE GENDT Thomas
KANGERT Tanel
KNOX James
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey

Nathanptz
ROGLIC Primoz
NIBALI Vincenzo
SIVAKOV Pavel
HALLER Marco *
O'CONNOR Ben
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey
DAVIES Scott *
COVILI Luca

Otoxiep87
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
EWAN Caleb
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
CARUSO Damiano *
MARECZKO Jakub
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
O'CONNOR Ben

Premier Andrew
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
NIZZOLO Giacomo
DE GENDT Thomas
HIRT Jan
O'CONNOR Ben

Rote Laterne
ROGLIC Primoz
NIBALI Vincenzo
LANDA MEANA Mikel
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben
O'CONNOR Ben
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey
AGNOLI Valerio
COVILI Luca

SafeBet
ROGLIC Primoz
NIBALI Vincenzo
LANDA MEANA Mikel
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
O'CONNOR Ben
FLOREZ LOPEZ Miguel Eduardo
SENNI Manuel
HATSUYAMA Sho

Salvarani
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
NIBALI Vincenzo
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
CIMOLAI Davide
KANGERT Tanel
HIRT Jan
O'CONNOR Ben

Scrool07
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
LANDA MEANA Mikel
CIMOLAI Davide
MODOLO Sacha
NARVAEZ PRADO Jhonatan Manuel *
O'CONNOR Ben

Search
JUNGELS Bob
NIBALI Vincenzo
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
BATTAGLIN Enrico
MODOLO Sacha
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
O'CONNOR Ben

Shalgo
ROGLIC Primoz
NIBALI Vincenzo
LANDA MEANA Mikel
CARBONI Giovanni
O'CONNOR Ben
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey
COVILI Luca
ORSINI Umberto

Squire
ROGLIC Primoz
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
DE LA PARTE GONZALEZ Victor
HENAO GOMEZ Sebastian
O'CONNOR Ben
GAROSIO Andrea
COVILI Luca

Tigerion
YATES Simon
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
O'CONNOR Ben
SCOTSON Miles *
TEN DAM Laurens
CLARKE William
HATSUYAMA Sho

Tobydawq
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio
FORMOLO Davide
NIBALI Vincenzo
LANDA MEANA Mikel
KANGERT Tanel
KNOX James
DE LA PARTE GONZALEZ Victor
TEN DAM Laurens

Torcia86
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio
FORMOLO Davide
NIBALI Vincenzo
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
O'CONNOR Ben
VENTOSO ALBERDI Francisco Jose *
SENNI Manuel

Total Package
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA Meana Mikel
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
O'CONNOR Ben
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey

Triley36
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
MASNADA Fausto
LANDA MEANA Mikel
NIZZOLO Giacomo
VUILLERMOZ Alexis
MARECZKO Jakub
O'CONNOR Ben

Vladimir
FORMOLO Davide
NIBALI Vincenzo
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
CICCONE Giulio
GALLOPIN Tony
CARBONI Giovanni
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey

Will10
NIBALI Vincenzo
EWAN Caleb
LANDA MEANA Mikel
CARTHY Hugh
DE GENDT Thomas
GIBBONS Ryan
KANGERT Tanel
KNOX James

Yellow Knight
JUNGELS Bob
NIBALI Vincenzo
ZAKARIN Ilnur
LANDA MEANA Mikel
NIZZOLO Giacomo
DUPONT Hubert
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
RENSHAW Mark
 
My plan (and until about the 18th team came in, I thought it might prove to be a unique plan), was to pick Roglic on the basis that Pink Jersey bonus points from today until the next GC relevant stage would cover any drop in eventual GC.

Plan actually working better than I had thought. I'll put up more to explain how these numbers came about presently, but, after Stage 1:

1 Armchair_Cyclist 1278
2 Karaev 1236
3 SafeBet 1220
4 Nathanptz 1207
5 Mellow_Velo 1203
6 BikeRacer33 1190
7 Rote_Laterne 1187
8 LosBrolin 1183
8 Shalgo 1183
10 Leadbelly 1174
11 BicycleBoy 1018
12 BluesInTheBottle 985
12 JustSomeGuy 985
14 Tigerion 951
15 Squire 930
16 Tobydawq 847
17 LightBing 788
18 GodChild 785
19 Del1962 766
20 DJSprtsch 741
21 Carlo_Algatrensig 701
22 Koronin 697
23 ChrisDK 689
24 Flo 685
25 Will10 676
26 Googolplex 668
27 Minessa 666
28 Fauniera 665
29 Josedin 654
30 Vladimir 645
31 Torcia86 640
32 Search 626
33 Bminchow 622
34 ArchieBoy 614
35 Yellow_Knight 613
36 Laarsland 596
37 Scrool07 581
38 Salvarani 575
39 TotalPackage 537
40 AmisVelo 533
40 Comodoro 533
42 Kazistuta 524
43 PremierAndrew 500
43 Triley36 500
45 Otoxiep87 309
 
Rider popularity

43: NIBALI Vincenzo (Out of 45 teams: Otoxiep and Squire are the two who declined him)
32: LANDA MEANA Mikel
30: O'CONNOR Ben
20: EWAN Caleb
19: ZAKARIN Ilnur (all but one of the Zakarin teams also have Landa)
18: CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
11: ROGLIC Primoz
10: AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey, SIVAKOV Pavel
All of the above are on the Collective Wisdom, apart from Roglic, who would have put it way over budget. Without him, it does come up rather underspent, at 3057

8: COVILI Luca, SENNI Manuel
7: KANGERT Tanel
6: FORMOLO Davide, MODOLO Sacha, NIZZOLO Giacomo
5: CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio, MOSCHETTI Matteo
4: AGNOLI Valerio, BATTAGLIN Enrico, CIMOLAI Davide, DE GENDT Thomas, GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando, JUNGELS Bob, ORSINI Umberto, PLAZA MOLINA Ruben, RENSHAW Mark, YATES Simon
3: CICCONE Giulio, GAROSIO Andrea, GEOGHEGAN HART Tao, GIBBONS Ryan, HATSUYAMA Sho, HIRT Jan, KNOX James, MASNADA Fausto
2: ANTUNES Amaro Manuel Reposo, CARBONI Giovanni, CARTHY Hugh, CLARKE William, DE LA PARTE GONZALEZ Victor, DUPONT Hubert, FLOREZ LOPEZ Miguel Eduardo, FRAPPORTI Marco, GALLOPIN Tony, HENAO GOMEZ Sebastian, MAJKA Rafal, MARECZKO Jakub, SOSA CUERVO Ivan Ramiro, TEN DAM Laurens, VUILLERMOZ Alexis

and the 22 unique picks are shown above.

Team popularity
43 points if you have Nibali, 1 point for any unique pick.

1 TotalPackage 176
2 Del1962 174
3 Laarsland 173
4 Comodoro 164
5 AmisVelo 159
6 PremierAndrew 157
7 Search 156
8 Flo 154
9 Bminchow 153
10 Kazistuta 149
11 SafeBet 147
12 Torcia86 144
13 Rote_Laterne 142
13 Salvarani 142
15 Scrool07 141
16 Shalgo 140
17 LosBrolin 139
18 Triley36 138
19 ChrisDK 136
19 Fauniera 136
19 Mellow_Velo 136
22 ArchieBoy 135
23 Karaev 129
24 Yellow_Knight 128
25 Googolplex 127
26 Otoxiep87 126
27 Minessa 125
28 Armchair_Cyclist 124
29 Carlo_Algatrensig 121
29 DJSprtsch 121
31 Vladimir 117
32 Nathanptz 114
32 Will10 114
34 JustSomeGuy 109
35 BluesInTheBottle 108
35 Leadbelly 108
37 BicycleBoy 107
37 Squire 107
39 BikeRacer33 105
39 Tigerion 105
41 Tobydawq 100
42 GodChild 93
43 LightBing 91
44 Koronin 81
45 Josedin 77
Collective_Wisdom 182

Josedin's in the least popular team, but has no unique picks: Koronin's is the most unique team, with 6 otherwise unselected riders. DJSprtsch, with 3 unique picks, is her nearest challenger in that regard.


Major picks
I was going to only include riders more expensive than Nibali in this analysis, but the popularity of Zakarin and Landa led me to include down to them. The lower threshhold for including riders than I have had in other games means that some teams have as many as 5 of these important buys.

Dumoulin with Nibali alone: God Child

Roglic with Nibali and Ewan: BikeRacer33, Mellow Velo
with Nibali and Landa: Leadbelly, Los Brolin, Nathanptz, Rote Laterne, SafeBet, Shalgo
with Nibali alone: Armchair Cyclist, Karaev
with Zakarin and Landa: Squire

Yates with Sosa and Nibali: Blues in the Bottle
with Nibali and Ewan: Tigerion
with Nibali alone: Bicycle Boy, Just Some Guy

Jungels with Nibali, Zakarin and Landa: Bminchow, Search, Yellow Knight
with Majka, Nibali and Zakarin: LightBing

Carapaz with Formolo, Nibali, Zakarin and Landa: Torcia86
with Formolo, Nibali and Landa: Tobydawq
with Nibali, Ewan and Landa: Scrool07
with Nibali, Masnada and Landa: Archie Boy
with Nibali alone: Josedin

Gaviria with Nibali, Ewan, Zakarin and Landa: Total Package
with Ewan, Zakarin and Landa: Otoxiep87
with Nibali, Zakarin and Landa: Salvarani
with Nibali, Ewan and Landa: Googolplex

Majka with Nibali, Zakarin and Landa: Del1962

Formolo with Nibali, Ewan, Zakarin and Landa: Laarsland
with Nibali, Zakarin and Landa: DJ Sprtsch, Vladimir
with Nibali, Ewan and Landa: Minessa

Bilbao with Nibali and Landa: Koronin

Sosa with Nibali, Zakarin and Landa: ChrisDK

Nibali with Ewan, Masnada and Landa: Triley36
with Ewan and Masnada: Carlo Algatrensig
with Ewan, Zakarin and Landa: Amis Velo, Comodoro, Fauniera, Flo, Kazistuta, Premier Andrew
with Ewan and Landa: Will10

Riders in this price bracket who are not chosen are VIVIANI Elia, LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel, ACKERMANN Pascal, IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Ion, POZZOVIVO Domenico, MOLLEMA Bauke, DEMARE Arnaud, ULISSI Diego, MADOUAS Valentin, OOMEN Sam and CATTANEO Mattia.
 
Stage 1
The top 20 riders, omitting those that none of us chose:

ROGLIC Primoz 698 pts 11 teams
YATES Simon 480 4
NIBALI Vincenzo 365 43
DUMOULIN Tom 260 1
MAJKA Rafal 244 2
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao 200 3
DE PLUS Laurens 171 1
CARUSO Damiano 137 1
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello 120 1
DE LA PARTE GONZALEZ Victor 112 2
JUNGELS Bob 104 4
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio 96 5
KANGERT Tanel 90 7
CICCONE Giulio 85 3
CARTHY Hugh 84 2
FORMOLO Davide 74 6


Quick explanation for anyone new to these games/reminder for the rest: Roglic got 70 points for winning the stage, and 18 for being awarded the pink jersey, that he cannot lose, even if he does not finish the race. He also is credited with 500 for leading the GC, 70 for leading the points classification, and 40 for current second place in the KoM standings (Ciccone is leading that) 70+18+500+70+40 = 698.(No points for Youth rider standings: hard luck to those with Geoghegan Hart) But if Roglic drops away in those classifications, he loses some of those projected points, negative points each day can happen. When we get down to Bilbao in 11th, he has no stage (or points or mountain standing), but 11th in GC gives 120 projected points, part of a sliding scale that goes down to 16 for 50th. And every rider below 50th on GC still gets 15 points so, given that nobody chose Nishimura, everyone has at least 8x15=120 points.

The top ten teams, not surprisingly, are the ten who have Nibali and Roglic: those two alone are worth 1063 at present, enough to beat 11th. So how the remaining 900 odd points were spent determines placings, the most relevant back up riders in their team are given here:

1 Armchair_Cyclist 1278 (Kangert, Chaves, O'Connor)
2 Karaev 1236 (Chaves, Sivakov, O'Connor)
3 SafeBet 1220 (Chaves, O'Connor, Landa)
4 Nathanptz 1207 (O'Connor, Sivakov, Davies)
5 Mellow_Velo 1203 (Chaves, O'Connor)
6 BikeRacer33 1190 (Chaves)
7 Rote_Laterne 1187 (O'Connor, Landa, Plaza)
8 LosBrolin 1183 (O'Connor, Landa)
8 Shalgo 1183 (O'Connor, Landa)
10 Leadbelly 1174 (Landa, Plaza)

To which information, I can only say, "Come on Tanel"

Purplish Points
(because I'm not convinced that 'cyclamen' is used as a colour name in English, and although I'm no horticulturalist, the few pics I googled of that flower are not the colour of that jersey)

This is equivalent to the Green Jersey points in the Main and the Spring Classics games: the top ten scoring teams each day get points from 70 down to one. Obviously on stage 1 the standings and the daily points are the same, so those ten teams above get the points, and for Los Brolin and Shalgo the points for 8th and 9th are averaged out between them.

Armchair_Cyclist 70
Karaev 40
SafeBet 25
Nathanptz 15
Mellow_Velo 10
BikeRacer33 7
Rote_Laterne 5
LosBrolin 2.5
Shalgo 2.5
Leadbelly 1
 
Re:

tobydawq said:
Hmm, why not just show the real standings? I was very confused when reading the rules and still don't really get that choice.
I had already put the standings, in the 22:52 post. I realised I was in the lead, and couldn't wait... Alternative explanation: I was away and didn't have time for a full update, so quickly put up the standings and the explanation several hours later.

Hopefully the Stage 2 update will be clearer.

Let me know if you are still uncertain (Anyone, not just Tobydawq)
 
Stage 2

Sprinters are a tricky pick in this game: one who dominates the flat stages can sometimes score as well as a top 5 GC contender, but such a rider is expensive, and the drop away in returns is dramatic: four stage wins are worth 280 points, but 4 5th places will only get 40 points, and won't be doing anything for their GC ranking in the process.

So Ackermann, Viviani and Demare being unpicked is understandable. That does mean, however, that points gained are unimpressive today
EWAN Caleb 32 pts (25 points on the stage, 7 projected points for lying 6th in the points competition) 20 teams
FRAPPORTI Marco 20 (position in points and KoM classifications gained on break) 2 teams
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 17 4
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello 15 (moved up in GC because De Plus dropped way down the rankings) 1team
CARUSO Damiano 14 1
O'CONNOR Ben 14 30
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 12 1
LANDA MEANA Mikel 12 32
I won't give all the riders in credit most days (there were another 19 today, and that is only among riders who we selected): the threshhold for getting mentioned will vary according to how dramatic the scores on the day are.

But riders can get negative day scores: Roglic dropped to 3rd in both the points and KoM classifications today, so dropped 45 and 15 points respectively. That was mitigated by the 18 points he got for the pink jersey, but still gives a daily liability of -42. He was not alone...

DUMOULIN Tom -10pts 1 team
MAJKA Rafal -15 2
NIBALI Vincenzo -20 43
ROGLIC Primoz -42 11
YATES Simon -45 4
CAMPENAERTS Victor -51 1
DE PLUS Laurens -153 1


So compiling those rider score changes for the day, we get each manager's day score:
1 Otoxiep87 101 (70 Purplish points)
2 TotalPackage 67 (45)
3 Googolplex 57 (25)
4 AmisVelo 56 (15)
5 Laarsland 54 (10)
6 Flo , Scrool07 53 (6 each)
8 PremierAndrew 51 (3)
9 Comodoro 50 (2)
10 Salvarani 49 (1)
11 ChrisDK, Fauniera, Triley36, Will10 42
15 Minessa 40
16 Kazistuta 36
17 Del1962 35
18 Tobydawq 33
19 ArchieBoy, Carlo_Algatrensig 29
21 Bminchow, Search, Torcia86 26
24 Josedin, Yellow_Knight 12
26 Vladimir 8
27 LightBing 1
28 Squire 0
29 Tigerion -10
30 Mellow_Velo -12
31 GodChild -22
32 BikeRacer33 -26
33 Rote_Laterne -27
34 Koronin -28
35 SafeBet -32
36 BicycleBoy -34
37 LosBrolin, Shalgo -36
39 Armchair_Cyclist -38
40 Karaev -40
41 Leadbelly -41
42 BluesInTheBottle, JustSomeGuy -47
44 Nathanptz -52
45 DJSprtsch -136
Collective_Wisdom 54

Purplish points
We have had two mutually exclusive batches of points so far, for basically a load of tied positions:
1 Armchair_Cyclist, Otoxiep87 70
3 Karaev, TotalPackage 40
5 Googolplex, SafeBet 25
7 AmisVelo, Nathanptz 15
9 Laarsland, Mellow_Velo 10
11 BikeRacer33 7
12 Flo, Scrool07 6
14 Rote_Laterne 5
15 PremierAndrew 3
16 LosBrolin, Shalgo 2.5
18 Comodoro 2
19 Leadbelly, Salvarani 1

Standings
Those who did well yesterday did poorly today, and vice versa, but that also means that there are few GC changes, and that is where the majority of points are found, so the standings are not enormously changed. Mellow Velo's move from 5th to 3rd might be the most significant, but it is Flo and Laarsland who share the mention for the biggest, 4 place, jump of the day.

1 Armchair_Cyclist 1240
2 Karaev 1196
3 Mellow_Velo 1191
4 SafeBet 1188
5 BikeRacer33 1164
6 Rote_Laterne 1160
7 Nathanptz 1155
8 LosBrolin 1147
8 Shalgo 1147
10 Leadbelly 1133
11 BicycleBoy 984
12 Tigerion 941
13 BluesInTheBottle 938
13 JustSomeGuy 938
15 Squire 930
16 Tobydawq 880
17 Del1962 801
18 LightBing 789
19 GodChild 763
20 Flo 738
21 ChrisDK 731
22 Carlo_Algatrensig 730
23 Googolplex 725
24 Will10 718
25 Fauniera 707
26 Minessa 706
27 Koronin 669
28 Josedin 666
28 Torcia86 666
30 Vladimir 653
31 Search 652
32 Laarsland 650
33 Bminchow 648
34 ArchieBoy 643
35 Scrool07 634
36 Yellow_Knight 625
37 Salvarani 624
38 DJSprtsch 605
39 TotalPackage 604
40 AmisVelo 589
41 Comodoro 583
42 Kazistuta 560
43 PremierAndrew 551
44 Triley36 542
45 Otoxiep87 410
Collective_Wisdom 624
 
Re: Re:

Armchair cyclist said:
tobydawq said:
Hmm, why not just show the real standings? I was very confused when reading the rules and still don't really get that choice.
I had already put the standings, in the 22:52 post. I realised I was in the lead, and couldn't wait... Alternative explanation: I was away and didn't have time for a full update, so quickly put up the standings and the explanation several hours later.

Hopefully the Stage 2 update will be clearer.

Let me know if you are still uncertain (Anyone, not just Tobydawq)
I think you misunderstood me.

The thing I don't get is why the "standings" you show are the projected standings (with all the hypothetical end-of-race points) and not the "real" standings with just the points earned so far.

But if that is the tradition, I just have to get used to it.
 
Re: Re:

tobydawq said:
Armchair cyclist said:
tobydawq said:
Hmm, why not just show the real standings? I was very confused when reading the rules and still don't really get that choice.
I had already put the standings, in the 22:52 post. I realised I was in the lead, and couldn't wait... Alternative explanation: I was away and didn't have time for a full update, so quickly put up the standings and the explanation several hours later.

Hopefully the Stage 2 update will be clearer.

Let me know if you are still uncertain (Anyone, not just Tobydawq)
I think you misunderstood me.

The thing I don't get is why the "standings" you show are the projected standings (with all the hypothetical end-of-race points) and not the "real" standings with just the points earned so far.

But if that is the tradition, I just have to get used to it.
Ah, got you. That is precisely what I have had in previous editions as the secondary competition, the Guaranteed points standing. The problem was, it didn't really reflect the true positions or the result anyone is heading towards.
Take a team that had Pinot in last year's Giro. In terms of real/guaranteed standings, Stage 20 (when he dropped from 3rd to 16th) would have looked no worse for them than any sprint stage in which he finished outside the top 10, nor would stage 21 when he didn't start. In the same race, Froome's stage 19 turnaround would have been no more significant than Schachmann's breakaway win the previous day (18 pink jersey points apart, which I why I didn't use Yates on st19 as the example in the previous sentence). Belletti would have looked as though he was just as helpful to his CQ team as Konrad, both gathering something in the teens of points, although the latter was en route to 190 points for 7th in GC.

We are all aware enough of how early GC is not really a great predictor of final standings (probably not as much the case in this Giro as in most GTs) to know when to consider it a meaningful sense of what we are heading towards, and not place too much weight on a sprinter (most years) in the top ten on GC in week one.

The guaranteed points can still be seen on the Spreadsheet (column B on the 'Results' tab) when I get that tideid up and share-worthy (probably this evening), but the model of the Green Jersey, which seems to have generated some interest for those not in the overall battle in the Main game in the last few years, looked to be more interesting as a secondary competition.

But the game is only worthwhile in so far as it is of interest to those competing in it: what do others think?
 
Stage 3
Worked out even better for the Gaviria teams than looked to be the case initially. Not so good for teams with top 20 GC guys who got caught out in the late crashes, but their losses made space for others to move up on GC.

GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 144pts for Googolplex, Otoxiep87, Salvarani and Total Package
NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel 28pts for Koronin
MOSCHETTI Matteo 25 5 teams
CARTHY Hugh 22 2
LUDVIGSSON Tobias 20 1
ZAKARIN Ilnur 19 19
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 18 18
FORMOLO Davide 18 6
SIVAKOV Pavel 18 10
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey 17 10
VILLELLA Davide 17 1
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello 15 1
CARUSO Damiano 15 1
DE LA PARTE GONZALEZ Victor 15 2
...
TEN DAM Laurens -12 2
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben -13 4
FRAPPORTI Marco -18 2
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd -23 1
KNOX James -51 3
KANGERT Tanel -69 7
CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio -76 5
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao -175 3



1 Otoxiep87 224 (Not only Gaviria, but 5 others who gained 14 or more on the day) (70 Purplish points again)
2 TotalPackage 214 (Similar, but lost points due to Nibali) (40)
3 Salvarani 120 (only 3 others with a double digit gain, but lost lots through Kangert) (25)
4 Googolplex 117 (15)
5 Bminchow 110 (10)
6 Laarsland 96 (7)
7 DJSprtsch 84 (5)
8 Kazistuta, Vladimir 77 (2.5 each)
10 AmisVelo 70 (1)
11 Search 69
12 Del1962, Karaev 68
14 Yellow_Knight 66
15 Squire 60
16 Comodoro 54
17 Nathanptz, PremierAndrew 42
19 Triley36 41
20 SafeBet 39
21 LosBrolin 38
21 Shalgo 38
23 GodChild 32
24 Koronin 29
25 BicycleBoy, Rote_Laterne 25
27 BluesInTheBottle, JustSomeGuy 24
29 LightBing 19
30 Mellow_Velo 18
31 BikeRacer33 4
32 Leadbelly -6
33 Tigerion -13
34 Torcia86 -16
35 Armchair_Cyclist -19
36 Fauniera -30
37 ArchieBoy -31
38 Scrool07 -51
39 Josedin -69
40 Minessa -83
41 Will10 -96
42 Flo -137
43 Carlo_Algatrensig -146
44 ChrisDK -162
45 Tobydawq -166
Collective_Wisdom 88

Purplish points

Two wins in a row: maybe the lack of Nibali from Otoxiep's team was a masterstroke.
Salvarani mmoves into the top ten and Bminchow goes from zero to almost in the top ten.

1 Otoxiep87 140
2 TotalPackage 80
3 Armchair_Cyclist 70
4 Googolplex 40
4 Karaev 40
6 Salvarani 26
7 SafeBet 25
8 Laarsland 17
9 AmisVelo 16
10 Nathanptz 15
11 Bminchow 10
11 Mellow_Velo 10


Standings
Kangert finishing in the Carapaz group at 46 seconds was enough to knock me off my perch, Sivakov remaining among the front group to give Karaev the lead. SafeBet moves from 4th to 2nd, and Nathanptz, Los Brolin and Shalgo each move up 2 among the top ten, which remains dominated by the Roglic/Nibali combo. The top 5 in the day rankings all have double figure improvements in their positions, with the 21 place leap by Total Package being the biggest.
1 Karaev 1264
2 SafeBet 1227
3 Armchair_Cyclist 1221
4 Mellow_Velo 1209
5 Nathanptz 1197
6 LosBrolin 1185
6 Rote_Laterne 1185
6 Shalgo 1185
9 BikeRacer33 1168
10 Leadbelly 1127
11 BicycleBoy 1009
12 Squire 990
13 BluesInTheBottle 962
13 JustSomeGuy 962
15 Tigerion 928
16 Del1962 869
17 Googolplex 842
18 TotalPackage 818
19 LightBing 808
20 GodChild 795
21 Bminchow 758
22 Laarsland 746
23 Salvarani 744
24 Vladimir 730
25 Search 721
26 Tobydawq 714
27 Koronin 698
28 Yellow_Knight 691
29 DJSprtsch 689
30 Fauniera 677
31 AmisVelo 659
32 Torcia86 650
33 Comodoro 637
33 Kazistuta 637
35 Otoxiep87 634
36 Minessa 623
37 Will10 622
38 ArchieBoy 612
39 Flo 601
40 Josedin 597
41 PremierAndrew 593
42 Carlo_Algatrensig 584
43 Scrool07 583
43 Triley36 583
45 ChrisDK 569
Collective_Wisdom 712

The spreadsheet is available at Dropbox, and the updated version of it will be there every evening even if I don't post the link in every stage summary.
 
Well that's a nuisance.

I had downloaded all the rankings before I went out at about 7pm, although I didn't post the info until I got back at 9:30: how was I supposed to know that they made a mid-evening decision to dock Viviani 50 points?
So the following riders are the following number of points better off, by virtue of moving up the points rankings (he is low enough in GC for it not to make a difference to anyone's score there):
Moschetti Matteo 5
Yates Simon 3
Roglič Primož 2
Cimolai Davide 2
Nizzolo Giacomo 1
López Miguel Ángel 1
Ewan Caleb 1

Which means the day scores are now:
1 Otoxiep87 225
2 TotalPackage 215
3 Salvarani 122
4 Googolplex 118
5 Bminchow 115
6 Laarsland 102
7 DJSprtsch, Kazistuta 84
9 Vladimir 77
10 Karaev 75
11 AmisVelo 71
12 Del1962, Search 69
14 Yellow_Knight 67
15 Squire 62
16 Comodoro 55
17 Nathanptz, PremierAndrew 44
19 Triley36 43
20 SafeBet 41
21 LosBrolin, Shalgo 40
23 GodChild 32
24 Koronin 29
25 BicycleBoy 28
26 BluesInTheBottle, JustSomeGuy, Rote_Laterne 27
29 Mellow_Velo 21
30 LightBing 19
31 BikeRacer33 7
32 Leadbelly -4
33 Tigerion -9
34 Armchair_Cyclist -12
35 Torcia86 -16
36 ArchieBoy, Fauniera -29
38 Scrool07 -48
39 Josedin -68
40 Minessa -82
41 Will10 -95
42 Flo -134
43 Carlo_Algatrensig -144
44 ChrisDK -161
45 Tobydawq -166
Collective_Wisdom 89

So the Purplish point standings are:
1 Otoxiep87 140
2 TotalPackage 80
3 Armchair_Cyclist 70
4 Karaev 41
5 Googolplex 40
6 Salvarani 26
7 SafeBet 25
8 Laarsland 17
9 AmisVelo 15
9 Nathanptz 15
11 Bminchow 10
11 Mellow_Velo 10
The changes gave Karaev 10th on the day, pushing him ahead of Googolplex in this amendment, and removing the differential between Amis Velo and Nathanptz

And the overall standings are now:
1 Karaev 1271
2 SafeBet 1229
3 Armchair_Cyclist 1228
4 Mellow_Velo 1212
5 Nathanptz 1199
6 LosBrolin 1187
6 Rote_Laterne 1187
6 Shalgo 1187
9 BikeRacer33 1171
10 Leadbelly 1129
11 BicycleBoy 1012
12 Squire 992
13 BluesInTheBottle 965
13 JustSomeGuy 965
15 Tigerion 932
16 Del1962 870
17 Googolplex 843
18 TotalPackage 819
19 LightBing 808
20 GodChild 795
21 Bminchow 763
22 Laarsland 752
23 Salvarani 746
24 Vladimir 730
25 Search 721
26 Tobydawq 714
27 Koronin 698
28 Yellow_Knight 692
29 DJSprtsch 689
30 Fauniera 678
31 AmisVelo 660
32 Torcia86 650
33 Kazistuta 644
34 Comodoro 638
35 Otoxiep87 635
36 Minessa 624
37 Will10 623
38 ArchieBoy 614
39 Flo 604
40 Josedin 598
41 PremierAndrew 595
42 Carlo_Algatrensig 586
42 Scrool07 586
44 Triley36 585
45 ChrisDK 570
Collective_Wisdom 713

The only actual change in order is that Kazistuta is ahead of, rather than level with, Comodoro in 33rd.

Hope they don't do many of these late adjustments...
 
Stage 4
Another reduced sprint stage that gets blown apart by last 10km accidents, to rather more catastrophic effect than yesterday. On the other hand, some of yesterday's losers get points back.

CARAPAZ MONTENEGRO Richard Antonio 141pts 5 teams
EWAN Caleb 76 20
FORMOLO Davide 39 6
ZAKARIN Ilnur 32 19
VUILLERMOZ Alexis 31 2
JUNGELS Bob 30 4
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao 29 3
GALLOPIN Tony 28 2
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 25 1
...
DE LA PARTE GONZALEZ Victor -15 2
MOSCHETTI Matteo -15 5
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey -17 10
O'CONNOR Ben -24 30
LUDVIGSSON Tobias -31 1
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello -38 1
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando -51 4
NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel -90 1
DUMOULIN Tom -225 1


The top two on the day both gain from Carapaz and lose through O'Connor, but while Scrool had Ewan, Torcia's other gains were from Formolo and Zakarin.

1 Scrool07, Torcia86 190 (55 Purplish points each)
3 Tobydawq 178 (Carapaz and Formolo, but Carapaz) (25 P pts)
4 Josedin 169 (Carapaz and Frapporti) (15)
5 Laarsland 132 (10)
6 Fauniera 129 (7)
7 ArchieBoy 122 (5)
8 ChrisDK, Kazistuta 114 (2.5 each)
10 BikeRacer33 113 (1)
11 Minessa 111
12 Flo 110
13 Vladimir 105
14 AmisVelo 104
15 Comodoro 94
16 Del1962, Mellow_Velo 89
18 Will10 87
19 Carlo_Algatrensig 86
20 PremierAndrew, Yellow_Knight 83
22 Triley36 82
23 LightBing 72
24 DJSprtsch 64
25 Search 62
26 Otoxiep87 57
27 Googolplex 52
28 Tigerion 43
29 TotalPackage 40
30 Leadbelly 24
31 BicycleBoy 17
32 Bminchow 16
33 SafeBet 15
34 Squire 10
35 Armchair_Cyclist 9
36 Karaev 6
37 JustSomeGuy 2
38 Shalgo -3
39 BluesInTheBottle -11
40 Nathanptz -18
41 LosBrolin, Rote_Laterne -24
43 Salvarani -35
44 Koronin -101
45 GodChild -195
Collective_Wisdom 99


Purplish points
The joint winners today appear in 4th and 5th (Scrool already had some points, Torcia didn't), as does, just, Tobydawq
1 Otoxiep87 140
2 TotalPackage 80
3 Armchair_Cyclist 70
4 Scrool07 61
5 Torcia86 55
6 Karaev 41
7 Googolplex 40
8 Laarsland 27
9 Salvarani 26
10 SafeBet 25
10 Tobydawq 25

Standings
The two teams that have Roglic, Nibali and Ewan rise to the top, Mellow Velo coming from 4th to top spot, and BikeRacer33 jumping 7 places to second. BicycleBoy is the only non-Roglic team over 1000 points (Yates, Nibali, Gallopin and Chaves being the main contributors). Three teams had a double digit improvement in position, Scrool07 going up 15.

1 Mellow_Velo 1301
2 BikeRacer33 1284
3 Karaev 1277
4 SafeBet 1244
5 Armchair_Cyclist 1237
6 Shalgo 1184
7 Nathanptz 1181
8 LosBrolin 1163
8 Rote_Laterne 1163
10 Leadbelly 1153
11 BicycleBoy 1029
12 Squire 1002
13 Tigerion 975
14 JustSomeGuy 967
15 Del1962 959
16 BluesInTheBottle 954
17 Googolplex 895
18 Tobydawq 892
19 Laarsland 884
20 LightBing 880
21 TotalPackage 859
22 Torcia86 840
23 Vladimir 835
24 Fauniera 807
25 Search 783
26 Bminchow 779
27 Scrool07 776
28 Yellow_Knight 775
29 Josedin 767
30 AmisVelo 764
31 Kazistuta 758
32 DJSprtsch 753
33 ArchieBoy 736
34 Minessa 735
35 Comodoro 732
36 Flo 714
37 Salvarani 711
38 Will10 710
39 Otoxiep87 692
40 ChrisDK 684
41 PremierAndrew 678
42 Carlo_Algatrensig 672
43 Triley36 667
44 GodChild 600
45 Koronin 597
Collective_Wisdom 812
 

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