2019 Giro Rest Day 2 Discussion

[Eshnar]

Final rest day. Who is gonna win it?

 

[SafeBet]

Voted Carapaz after the first rest day. Won't change it now.

 

[Ciddaman]

Carapaz 30% the best climber, the best team, bad ITT, some doubts for the third week
Roglic 25% the best legs, a weak team, the worst DS and a lot of mountains without friends
Nibali 35% experience, fast recovery and experience again
Landa 5% the joker, not the best but a great climber with a big role in Movistar strategies
others 5% a miracle can never be excluded in the Giro

 

[Escarabajo]

I think is between Carapaz and Nibali. Give the advantage to Carapaz based on his team and his peak form.
I am starting to believe that Roglic will fade a bit in the last week.

 

[Laplaz]

I think (and hope) Nibali will win this bike race. But it will be very tough.

 

[DanielSong39]

Carapaz has been very impressive so far, a long way to go but he has to be the favorite at this point.

Roglic and Nibali the other major contenders.

Landa, Yates, and Lopez still capable of making noise and affecting the race; a Top 3 finish is still possible.

If you believe in miracles maybe Majka or Mollema can do something exciting.

 

[hfer07]

This is MOVISTAR's race to lose:

If Carapaz for some unexpected reason has a bad day, then Landani will counter. If Carapaz keeps his form & the climbing legs he's displayed so far, then he'll be the winner, despite what Roglic might do on the last ITT.
Then there is NIbali - he's getting better & better as the race progresses, but I wonder if his game will be enough to drop Carapaz......
Roglic? Unless he's got something special coming up on the last week, I'm afraid he'll likely fade.....but you never know.
Yates & MAL: I think Yates can likely climb further on the GC, and depending on how the others react to his attacks, then there is a good chance for him to make a podium. MAL has gotten a stroke of bad luck with mechanicals & not being at the front, but I know very well he'll attack......

 

[Tonton]

I voted Nibali, but he needs to find 1'30" on Roglic with the final ITT looming. And he needs at least 20" on Carapaz, who took full advantage of their stupidity and finds himself in a good spot. It will be difficult, because Carapaz can ride defensive and kick hard. Unless games are played again and riders are not kept on a tight rope, that's the podium. But I can see a Zakarin going for another break now that he's far down the GC, heck maybe Polanc (good for my CQ team ) or as I hope Madouas. It will be a knife fight and that's why I like Nibali's chances.

 

[Tigerion]

Voted Nibali but mostly because that or my original pick and think it is fairly even between him and Carapaz right now.
Roglic needs to pull back some time and I don't see him doing that, hasn't looked like he has the legs or desire to attack

Yates and Landa look like the only 2 outside that who have the slim chance. But if Carapaz bonks and Yates is away, even if Roglic refuses to work I can't see Nibali letting him ride away. Which is really their only chance, if those 2 just play their "you do the work or I'm not" games

 

[Jungle Cycle]

im not so sure that Landa will fit the role of domestique that Carapaz will need...
lets see what Roglic can do now in the attack(hopefully) so I`ll go with Nibali. How many times had he face similar situation on a 3rd week? now against a relative young competition...

 

[gregrowlerson]

I have to eat my words. I was one of those people saying that it was a two horse race after week one. Now I am voting for Carapaz!

 

[Pantani_lives]

After yesterday Carapaz looks like the favorite. Roglic can make up 47 seconds in the ITT, but he seems to be cracking mentally and physically, not to mention LJ's terrible team tactics. Nibali is still a serious contender, but he can't drop Carapaz uphill. Little Richard doesn't have much experience, but he has a strong and experienced team around him. Landa isn't completely out of it either - who will chase if he attacks from far out?

 

[jaylew]

Carapaz - 38%
Nibali - 24%
Roglic - 30%
Other - 8%

 

[johnymax]

Re:

After yesterday Carapaz looks like the favorite. Roglic can make up 47 seconds in the ITT, but he seems to be cracking mentally and physically, not to mention LJ's terrible team tactics. Nibali is still a serious contender, but he can't drop Carapaz uphill. Little Richard doesn't have much experience, but he has a strong and experienced team around him. Landa isn't completely out of it either - who will chase if he attacks from far out?

Caruso and Pozzovivo.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

After yesterday Carapaz looks like the favorite. Roglic can make up 47 seconds in the ITT, but he seems to be cracking mentally and physically, not to mention LJ's terrible team tactics. Nibali is still a serious contender, but he can't drop Carapaz uphill. Little Richard doesn't have much experience, but he has a strong and experienced team around him. Landa isn't completely out of it either - who will chase if he attacks from far out?

I think this is where Landa is the best for helping Carapaz. Carapaz may not have a lot of experience, but he has a DS that should know how to manage him and has been in these kind of situations before. So he does have that going for him. He also has Amador there to help him with advise as well.

 

[movingtarget]

Even though Yates won't win the race he could cause some trouble and won't mind working with others to make up time. Movistar's race to lose and so far they haven't done much wrong. Landa is in a great position to use the old one two punch against their rivals. Be interesting to see if Roglic can keep going in the third week or if he begins to leak more time. His team is a big problem. He is always isolated on the climbs that count. Mollema and Majka are hanging in there but for how much longer ? Lopez could be an interesting one if he finds form. He's leaving it a bit late. He needs to do something in the next stage.

 

[Tigerion]

So apparently some folks didn't believe the race organisers so wanted to check if Gavia was really blocked

 

[Robert5091]

Whoever has the best recovery program will win - can see a reprise of Dumoulin/Quintana in 2017.

 

[The Hegelian]

The Shark. I wrote him off as too old/past it at the start. But he's looking good and he sure knows how to ride well in the last week of a GT. Everyone else has big question marks on that front. He has actual evidence of getting the job done when it counts.

 

[Red Rick]

Carapaz.

I don't think there's enough in the final week to give Nibali a chance.

 

[RedheadDane]

Final rest day. Who is gonna win it?

I thought you meant "Who is gonna win the rest day?"
Which begs the question; how DO you win a rest day?

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Carapaz.

I don't think there's enough in the final week to give Nibali a chance.

Haven't you heard there will be rain on Mortirolo?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Carapaz.

I don't think there's enough in the final week to give Nibali a chance.

Haven't you heard there will be rain on Mortirolo?

Oh boi here we go again

 

[Lequack]

I have to say I liked the TDF 2018 attacking Roglic better, even if he had no chance to win then, it made the Tour watchable. The calculating and worried Roglic where he is the favorite is not as exciting. Hopefully he gets a bit more aggressive in the final week.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

Carapaz.

I don't think there's enough in the final week to give Nibali a chance.

Haven't you heard there will be rain on Mortirolo?

Carapaz is also good in rainy conditions, though.