Tour de France 2021 Tour de France: Who will finish on the podium below Pogačar? First rest day poll

[Netserk]

Two picks allowed.

 

[Red Rick]

This sounds, smells, looks and tasts like a Uran podium.

 

[Rackham]

Carapaz is going to feel the pressure to get 2nd among that lot.

To go into the Tour off the back of winning Tour de Suisse, you get a Roglic DNF, Thomas injures himself, Porte lost time day 1 & TGH is a non-factor. He's literally gotten what he wanted day one (Ineos leadership) with one of the two Slovenians out of the equation.

He has to deliver 2nd before the TT.

 

[Fergoose]

Carapaz will be fine for second. He expended a lot of energy on two stages competing with Pog. Once he recalibrates to ignore Pog and attack other podium rivals he will secure 2nd with the assistance of his team. Uran to get third courtesy of his ITT (although Vingegaard is the spoiler here).

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

I’m voting for the Least Expected Mas.

 

[Amazinmets87]

This sounds, smells, looks and tasts like a Uran podium.

I'm smelling a third 2nd place. Not too shabby!

 

[Gigs_98]

Mas looked good today and he tends to get better throughout races so I think he has a good shot. Other than that Carapaz seems likely. Looking at his last two seasons he has been by far the best gc rider on that list.

I wouldn't rule out Uran either though. His last TdF podium came completely out of nowhere just when I started to think his career was on a decline too.

 

[titan31]

Vingegaard having a much better time trial than the others makes this interesting. He'll take more than a minute on most of the others. Carapaz should be the strongest but he hasn't shown the ability to actually distance these guys yet despite trying 3 times now.

 

[perico]

Mas hit the ground hard today and still had the ability to attack Carapaz and Uran at the end. It was also a strong attack. I’m not impartíal but am going with Mas for either 2nd or 3rd.

 

[Netserk]

Recall that Vingegaard lost 55'' (at least) waiting for Roglič in stage 3.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Carapaz is paying for his efforts on friday and yesterday. Maybe he will recover and put time on other podium contenders on Ventoux and Pyrenees.
So far Uran has been always there, slowly climbing the GC ranks. He can gain some time in the second TT (but his first wasn't stellar).
Mas will have his chances as well, hot Pyrenees close to his country should suit him better but last TT is not favourable.
Vingegaard is still young and is having a breakthrough season. He finished second at Basque Country, had a great TT and is hanging in the mountains. He is a dark horse for the podium but as an inexperienced GC rider he can have a bad day in the 3rd week.
Connor: who knows, maybe he will be able to hang on?

My prediction: Carapaz and Uran but other guys have realistic chances as well.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

O'Connor should be able to survive. Finished with his competition yesterday and barely shedded time on the final climb today.

As for the other podium spot, we might see someone else sneak in like O'Connor today. Barring that, Carapaz still hasn't taken time uphill and Uran is an expert in these situations so I'd back the latter right now. Vingegaard will ship too much time somewhere to claw back in the TT. Mas will do his routine 5th place.

 

[Ramira]

I'm smelling a third 2nd place. Not too shabby!

Second surely? Or fourth if we're talking all Grand Tours.

 

[Ramira]

O'Connor should be able to survive. Finished with his competition yesterday and barely shedded time on the final climb today.

As for the other podium spot, we might see someone else sneak in like O'Connor today. Barring that, Carapaz still hasn't taken time uphill and Uran is an expert in these situations so I'd back the latter right now. Vingegaard will ship too much time somewhere to claw back in the TT. Mas will do his routine 5th place.

He's also never finished within an hour of the winner in a Grand Tour. Now he's looked better than he ever has this season, but there have been plenty of riders who had a good first week (or even two weeks) in a Grand Tour only to fade in the last week.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

He's also never finished within an hour of the winner in a Grand Tour. Now he's looked better than he ever has this season, but there have been plenty of riders who had a good first week (or even two weeks) in a Grand Tour only to fade in the last week.

Most GTs these days see at least one rider make their first-ever podium - Caruso at the Giro this year and the whole podium the year before, Pogacar and Porte at the Tour, Carthy at the Vuelta. He could definitely fade but it definitely isn't a disqualifying factor, especially as his 2020 Giro third week was stellar and he would have made the top-10 at the 2018 Giro had he not crashed down Sestriere.

 

[luckyboy]

Colbrelli is ready to strike on Ventoux. Second place, green and polka dots on the way for him!

 

[Ramira]

Most GTs these days see at least one rider make their first-ever podium - Caruso at the Giro this year and the whole podium the year before, Pogacar and Porte at the Tour, Carthy at the Vuelta. He could definitely fade but it definitely isn't a disqualifying factor, especially as his 2020 Giro third week was stellar and he would have made the top-10 at the 2018 Giro had he not crashed down Sestriere.

I agree he could definitely stay on the podium, and I very much hope he will.

My point was mostly that being good for two mountain stages is very different from being good an entire tour. And it's not exactly uncommon for riders to lose a lot of time in the last week of a Grand Tour. You're right that his crash in 2018 does distort things a bit, as that was clearly his best performance in the GC. But even before the crash his performance wasn't of the level he would need to hold off the likes of Mas, Carapaz and Uran this tour. Again, he could be better this year, and I hope he is, but I don't see these two stages as clear evidence he'll be able to last the entire Tour. If he cracks the 3 minutes he has to the other podium contenders isn't a lot of time. And depending on who is challenging him he might need a bit of a buffer going into the time trial.

I still remember people thinking that Bauke Mollema was finally coming good in the 2013 Tour and make the podium after a good showing in the first 2 mountains in 2013. He actually held on for quite a while, but ended up losing almost 8 minutes in the last 4 stages, dropping from 2nd to 6th. And there are a lot of examples like that, Voeckler lost only 1:08 to Evans (and 2: 22 to Andy Schleck) from stage 10 until stage 18 only to lose 2:25 in the last mountain stage and Alaphilippe list 1:22 to Bernal (and 28 seconds to Thomans) in the first 3 mountain stages after the time trial, only to lose 5:15 in the last two days. If the end comes it doesn't matter how well positioned O'Connor is.

 

[will-10]

O'Connor was right there in Dauphine with these guys he now has 3 minute head start on. I think Ineos, Movistar may regret not keeping this break a touch closer.

Vingegaard looks a solid bet given the TT and how evenly matched those 3rd-8th guys look to be thus far.

 

[Pinot's goat]

O'Connor seems to lose less performance in the rain than most other riders, I think they can drop him once the sun comes out, he struggled a lot on Ventoux just after the Dauphine rest day.

 

[Bolder]

I went with my head and picked Carapaz and Uran, but there are still 4 stages including the TT that are likely to bring big gaps so I would not be surprised by anything. I didn't think these Alps stages were that hard on paper, but a tough Stage 7 and really bad weather changed everything.

 

[Netserk]

And the forecast promises hot weather and sun on Ventoux.

 

[happytramp]

Hmmm, I'm going to say pogacar to finish 1st and 2nd..... If he's feeling generous he might let someone else finish 3rd.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

And the forecast promises hot weather and sun on Ventoux.

So you're saying Pogacar could still lose this?

 

[Netserk]

So you're saying Pogacar could still lose this?

Not that hot. 30 degrees at the bottom.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think it's between O'Connor, Uran, Mas, Carapaz, Vingegaard and Kelderman. With Kelderman having the least chances because

Spoiler: surprise

he's Kelderman.

With an outside chance that Gaudu bounces back and has suffered in bad weather, but will get into his grove in a few other stages.

Voted Uran & Mas.

Not that hot. 30 degrees at the bottom.