Tour de France 2023 Tour de France, KoM Jersey Discussion

[RedheadDane]

We have a thread for who who think will win, a thread for who we want to win, a thread for who we think will win Green, and a thread for who we think will finish third.
So, I figured; "why not?" However, I decided to go for a different approach. I you vote "yes", please specify who you think will win.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Yes, Tibopino is doing the Giro-Tour-double.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Yes, because an actually good climber like Ciccone is targetting it from the start, alongside stage wins.
A clearly worse Ciccone who was not at his best almost managed to do it last year (he needed to be the first rider over Spadelles to have it pretty much locked up, if I remember correctly).

 

[Red Rick]

Yes, because an actually good climber like Ciccone is targetting it from the start, alongside stage wins.
A clearly worse Ciccone who was not at his best almost managed to do it last year (he needed to be the first rider over Spadelles to have it pretty much locked up, if I remember correctly).

All we need to remember is the best "climber" targeting it from the start was Simon Geschke.

It's hugely important to commit early here as well, as the Pyrenees are quite likely to go to the breaks IMO and you kinda wanna be 20 minutes down before they happne.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

All we need to remember is the best "climber" targeting it from the start was Simon Geschke.

You mean Romandie podium finisher Simon Geschke? He‘s washed up by now, though, so he won‘t get another chance.

 

[ManicJack]

Yes, Ciccone. Quinn Simmons after stage 1 though. It would give the team 48 extra hours to find a better way to incorporate the LIDL logo into the front of his Stars & Stripes.

 

[KZD]

I would keep an eye on Felix Gall after his performance at the Tour of Switzerland.

Still there is a decent take that either Pogačar or Vingegård take it, if its an all out war between the two until the end of the Tour.

 

[ZamlinusYoutubeious]

I hope so. And would be nice if there is a fight for it.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Cav FTW!

 

[search]

Poels has mentioned several times that he aims for it, already during the winter. But really not sure if he's still good enough

 

[ZamlinusYoutubeious]

Fred wright

 

[staubsauger]

Poels? He's even inconsistent during one stage nowadays.

If Ciccone and Gall or even Carapaz steal enough points from each other whoever wins the gc still might end up with the polka dots jersey.

 

[Salvarani]

Poels? He's even inconsistent during one stage nowadays.

So you mean he is consistently inconsistent?

 

[Red Rick]

Poels could be considered inconsistent if his good days were good enough to win something. He's just very consistently not good enough.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I would keep an eye on Felix Gall after his performance at the Tour of Switzerland.

Still there is a decent take that either Pogačar or Vingegård take it, if its an all out war between the two until the end of the Tour.

From what I've heared from him in interviews he'll support O'Connor and target some mountain stages

 

[Pantani_lives]

Pinot vs. Bardet: the battle of the century.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Worth noting that, of the six HC climbs, four are the final climb of the day, and the other two are on stage 5 and 6. So the 'I was going to go for GC but lost a lot of time in the early mountain stages so then I went KOM hunting' route is unlikely to succeed this time, only if a lot of the Alpine stages go to the break does it become viable. Therefore, it probably hinges on the likes of Ciccone and Pinot being committed enough to sandbag in the first four stages so that they can get the necessary head start in the Pyrenees. So basically the first six stages are arguably the most important for the KOM battle which is extremely weird.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Poels has mentioned several times that he aims for it, already during the winter. But really not sure if he's still good enough

He did pretty good two years ago. But it will be really difficult for sure.

 

[ManicJack]

Worth noting that, of the six HC climbs, four are the final climb of the day, and the other two are on stage 5 and 6. So the 'I was going to go for GC but lost a lot of time in the early mountain stages so then I went KOM hunting' route is unlikely to succeed this time, only if a lot of the Alpine stages go to the break does it become viable. Therefore, it probably hinges on the likes of Ciccone and Pinot being committed enough to sandbag in the first four stages so that they can get the necessary head start in the Pyrenees. So basically the first six stages are arguably the most important for the KOM battle which is extremely weird.

That's a good take on the situation.

 

[Gigs_98]

Never quite get how situations like last year or 2020 happen. It's such a prestigious achievement that gets you lots of attention yet sometimes there are years where seemingly nobody wants to win it.

 

[Red Rick]

Never quite get how situations like last year or 2020 happen. It's such a prestigious achievement that gets you lots of attention yet sometimes there are years where seemingly nobody wants to win it.

1. I think it's harder to get into the right break these days, or at least more tiring, making i tharder for a rider to get into the right break on 5 mountain stages
2. Big mountain days that are never going to the GC doesn't really happen anymroe. Maybe certain descent finishes. But definitely there's fewer HC climbs in warmup places
3. Gaps between riders are bigger, and generally I think the riders going hard for KoM aren't the ones that should be going for it. Maybe this year it happens with like Ciccone, but IMO the archetype is a climber that can get into a break and win from that break but can still get some points on the MTF if the GC guys win, like how Majka saved his KoM on Hautacam in 2014.

 

[Gigs_98]

1. I think it's harder to get into the right break these days, or at least more tiring, making i tharder for a rider to get into the right break on 5 mountain stages
2. Big mountain days that are never going to the GC doesn't really happen anymroe. Maybe certain descent finishes. But definitely there's fewer HC climbs in warmup places
3. Gaps between riders are bigger, and generally I think the riders going hard for KoM aren't the ones that should be going for it. Maybe this year it happens with like Ciccone, but IMO the archetype is a climber that can get into a break and win from that break but can still get some points on the MTF if the GC guys win, like how Majka saved his KoM on Hautacam in 2014.

I think you are right with all those points but it's still weird to me. There really didn't need to be a gret climber to go into breakaways to beat Vingegaard last year. I mean as it was mentioned, Simon f*cking Geschke almost did it. I guess I'm just surprised we don't see more 2nd rate climbers plan to go for the kom right from the start of the Tour.

If a gc rider dominates the mountains like Nibali in 2014 then yeah, you better be Rafal Majka to win it, but last year that really wouldn't have been necessary.

 

[titan31]

I voted yes, but more out of hope than anything. If someone outside of Vingegaard or Pog are to win it, they probably need to get in the break on stage 5 or 6 to try to get points early. Either that or one of the two above don't finish this race, so more stages in the Alps will likely go to breaks then.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Ten to twenty years ago people complained because it wasn't the best climber who won the polka dot jersey. Nowadays they complain because it is the best climber who wins it.

 

[xo 1]

Ten to twenty years ago people complained because it wasn't the best climber who won the polka dot jersey. Nowadays they complain because it is the best climber who wins it.

I was disappointed in 2020 when Richie Carapaz was pipped by Pogecar in the Planche des Belles Filles time trial. Pogecar was a worthy winner, but Carapaz showed class pivoting from a failed GC pursuit to the polka dots. But I suspect he wasn't the top climber in 2020 in any event.