2023 Tour de France route rumors

[Netserk]

Well, since Almeida's Covid happened way late in the race, if the ITT was during the 2nd week there was a big chance that Almeida would have a good lead over Carapaz, Hindley and Landa going into the third week, forcing them to attack from far to gain back time and forcing UAE to control the race.

The way it was they still needed to put time into him for the final stage but psicologically I think being already distanced forces the riders to react more than the need of gaining time to build a buffer for future stages.

Sure, the race lacked TTing before the last week, but that was not the question. The question at hand is what difference the existence of the final ITT made.

 

[Ricco']

Sure, the race lacked TTing before the last week, but that was not the question. The question at hand is what difference the existence of the final ITT made.

I think Red Rick was talking about switching the order of the stages, not reducing TT mileage. At least that was my understanding, as the Budapest TT can't be more considered more than a prologue, imo.

My analysis was in the event that the TT mileage remained the same (or even a bit longer) but put on the middle of the race instead of in the end.

In my pov, of the three scenarios, TT in the last day or no TT would lead the preceding stages to be ridden almost the same. But a TT in the middle of GT would improve the amount of scenarios available for the race to play out.

 

[houtdffan]

Should start with a prologue, then something like a stage 3-4 TTT.

A stage 7-10 ITT that is VERY long, before we go into the mountains most years. Let's see Vingegaard and Pog about 4-5 minutes behind Remco heading into the mountains. Make them race even harder than the did this year. We'd again have proper mountain stages,

Even the first Pyrenean stage in 1986, one we'd decry as worse than a Peshceux Special, had MASSIVE time gaps, because the racing started on the first climb.

Then either between mountain ranges, or after the mountains, do the second long ITT

 

[Bonimenier]

Should start with a prologue, then something like a stage 3-4 TTT.

A stage 7-10 ITT that is VERY long, before we go into the mountains most years. Let's see Vingegaard and Pog about 4-5 minutes behind Remco heading into the mountains. Make them race even harder than the did this year. We'd again have proper mountain stages,

Even the first Pyrenean stage in 1986, one we'd decry as worse than a Peshceux Special, had MASSIVE time gaps, because the racing started on the first climb.

Then either between mountain ranges, or after the mountains, do the second long ITT

You must live in a fantasy world if you think Vingegaard and Pogacar would lose 4-5 minutes on Remco in a long TT.

 

[houtdffan]

You must live in a fantasy world if you think Vingegaard and Pogacar would lose 4-5 minutes on Remco in a long TT.

Was counting the very long TTT as well. I suspect Remco would have better TTT riders than Pog. Vingegaard would keep pace, however, in the TTT

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Should start with a prologue, then something like a stage 3-4 TTT.

A stage 7-10 ITT that is VERY long, before we go into the mountains most years. Let's see Vingegaard and Pog about 4-5 minutes behind Remco heading into the mountains. Make them race even harder than the did this year. We'd again have proper mountain stages,

Even the first Pyrenean stage in 1986, one we'd decry as worse than a Peshceux Special, had MASSIVE time gaps, because the racing started on the first climb.

Then either between mountain ranges, or after the mountains, do the second long ITT

Let‘s take Remco‘s Algarve TT, one of his best ever TT performances. He put one minute into his closest competition. Let‘s assume Pogačar and Vingegaard are around the level of Küng and Hayter and also lose a minute over 32 Km. For them to lose 4 to 5 minutes we‘d need 4 to 5 times the TT kms. Let‘s also assume they lose at the same rate in the TTT which, I’d say, would be a catastrophic result for their team. That makes 128 to 160 TT kms before the first rest day. I would rate the two higher though, putting us closer to 300 TT kms. I mean, I‘d watch it but this sounds like an absolutely impossible route unless Bavarianrider or you buys ASO
Edit: max distance for TTs and TTTs is 60 kms so the opening time trial would need to be above prologue length

 

[Netserk]

I think Red Rick was talking about switching the order of the stages, not reducing TT mileage. At least that was my understanding, as the Budapest TT can't be more considered more than a prologue, imo.

My analysis was in the event that the TT mileage remained the same (or even a bit longer) but put on the middle of the race instead of in the end.

In my pov, of the three scenarios, TT in the last day or no TT would lead the preceding stages to be ridden almost the same. But a TT in the middle of GT would improve the amount of scenarios available for the race to play out.

There's two parts of the argument. That said GTs lacked the good that comes from an early ITT, and that they suffered the harm that comes from a late ITT. In the Giro, I don't see the latter applying.

As such, is my point, it wasn't in any way harmed by too much TTing (no matter how it was actually placed), it was only harmed by too little TTing. And then you can't use that as a case against more TTing.

 

[Bonimenier]

Was counting the very long TTT as well. I suspect Remco would have better TTT riders than Pog. Vingegaard would keep pace, however, in the TTT

Jumbo Visma would take buckets of time on everyone else including QS in a very long TTT.

 

[sir fly]

Jumbo Visma would take buckets of time on everyone else including QS in a very long TTT.

Historically, TTTs don't produce massive gaps (between the strongest).

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Or Port de Balès + Superbagnères.

And we have rumors for '24 about an ITT from Luchon to Superbagnères like in '62 and '79. Would be a total waste of a fantastic HC climb.

But we have similar stuff for Puy de Dôme.

 

[Gigs_98]

2022 Giro and 2020 Tour are the same case, namely that 3 weeks of racing was bad because of the final ITT. I'm mainly arguing against the 2 long ITT idea, like you take GTs with already one decent sized TT and then adding another one. I think you need one long one that's like stage 10 at the latest. Especially in the Tour it needs to before the first block of Pyrenees/Alps.

I think just about every GT with a stage 20 TT becomes way better if you put it on stage 8-10 instead. Like why do people look back fondly at Schleck and Contador holding hands on the Tourmalet because they both think they'll be fine in the ITT. Hell I think if the Tour this year had it's ITT in the first week it would've been a decent improvement.

Finally I think you can also distinguish between the 3 GTs, and which one can have the most TT for the mountains and field they get. In that regard it would probably be Giro>Tour>Vuelta.

I agree with @Netserk that the final TT of the 2022 Giro wasn't the problem and I think there is some very revisionist thinking going on about the 2020 Tour as well. There were basically 3 riders in that race serious about winning it of which Bernal was sh*t and Pogacar was expected to lose time in the final TT not gain it. I think if the same riders race the same route again the final TT indeed might lead to a less aggressive Pogacar but in reality everyone thought Pogacar needed to drop Roglic and once he was pretty certain about finishing on the podium he raced accordingly.

That being said, I do agree about the advantages of early TT's. If you do one in week 3 do it before the final mountain stages but really preferably do a long one somewhere half way through the race. In my opinion races like the 2015 Giro are perfect in that regard. It is honestly quite weird that it is so common to have the final TT after the final mountain stage. I suppose in the Tour the organizers want the final big showdown as late as possible but often Paris is too far away from the mountains for that showdown to be a mountain stage. But that excuse really doesn't work for the Giro.

 

[houtdffan]

Let‘s take Remco‘s Algarve TT, one of his best ever TT performances. He put one minute into his closest competition. Let‘s assume Pogačar and Vingegaard are around the level of Küng and Hayter and also lose a minute over 32 Km. For them to lose 4 to 5 minutes we‘d need 4 to 5 times the TT kms. Let‘s also assume they lose at the same rate in the TTT which, I’d say, would be a catastrophic result for their team. That makes 128 to 160 TT kms before the first rest day. I would rate the two higher though, putting us closer to 300 TT kms. I mean, I‘d watch it but this sounds like an absolutely impossible route unless Bavarianrider or you buys ASO
Edit: max distance for TTs and TTTs is 60 kms so the opening time trial would need to be above prologue length

I'd have that kind of TT distance before the first rest day. It would be similar to the 2002 route. Nothing too extreme

 

[fbjim]

is there a reason we should even want to go back to early-00s route design


i mean, i sat through those races and apart from 03, i was not like "oh boy, i'm glad there's so much time trialing in this parcours"

 

[Red Rick]

I agree with @Netserk that the final TT of the 2022 Giro wasn't the problem and I think there is some very revisionist thinking going on about the 2020 Tour as well. There were basically 3 riders in that race serious about winning it of which Bernal was sh*t and Pogacar was expected to lose time in the final TT not gain it. I think if the same riders race the same route again the final TT indeed might lead to a less aggressive Pogacar but in reality everyone thought Pogacar needed to drop Roglic and once he was pretty certain about finishing on the podium he raced accordingly.

What's the revisionist thinking about the 2020 Tour? It was precisely passive because both Pogacar and Roglic were happy about where they were at ahead of the ITT. I also think Pog was on the limit more often than Roglic that Tour. A final factor was the ridiculousness of the TT making it even harder to predict and even more decisive. The most recent Giro was all about both riders being close in strength but backing themselves for the ITT. Hindley wasn't even planning to attack Fedaia until Ineos blew the race apart there. You can't have 2 riders satisfied with where they're at before a TT if all the TTing is done by stage 10.

 

[Red Rick]

is there a reason we should even want to go back to early-00s route design


i mean, i sat through those races and apart from 03, i was not like "oh boy, i'm glad there's so much time trialing in this parcours"

Honestly I only want the 9 sprint stages a Tour back so Cav could've won 60 stages

 

[fbjim]

Honestly I only want the 9 sprint stages a Tour back so Cav could've won 60 stages

please, English-language commentary is unbearable enough

 

[sir fly]

please, English-language commentary is unbearable enough

Not questioning all the flaws of production, it's fair to notice the presence of the British contingent improved the overall outlook of the sport.
It coincides with favourable technological developments, of course, yet I'm not sure someone else would've been able to take advantage of it to such an extent.

 

[Gigs_98]

What's the revisionist thinking about the 2020 Tour? It was precisely passive because both Pogacar and Roglic were happy about where they were at ahead of the ITT. I also think Pog was on the limit more often than Roglic that Tour. A final factor was the ridiculousness of the TT making it even harder to predict and even more decisive. The most recent Giro was all about both riders being close in strength but backing themselves for the ITT. Hindley wasn't even planning to attack Fedaia until Ineos blew the race apart there. You can't have 2 riders satisfied with where they're at before a TT if all the TTing is done by stage 10.

As I wrote, Pogacar clearly wasn't happy where he was ahead of the TT and rode relatively aggressively. People forget how much he attacked Roglic before being dropped on the Col de la Loze and then being weaker the day after. Of course there were no 2022 like fireworks but that simply wasn't to be expected of a 21 y.o. in his first ever Tour. I simply don't think he would have attacked any more without the TT.

 

[fbjim]

For whatever reason the races have gotten far less controlled in the last two years as well. This was really noticed both this year and 2021, where UAE demonstrated a chronic inability to control the race in the Alps, while Jumbo was more or less emulating the beloved Team Sky tactics to discourage attacks for most of 2020.

It's worth noting that the gaps exploded early in 2021 but the second half of the race was more or less a damp squib as a result but maybe that's a special case.

 

[ChiefMasterPro]

Bruh, it's the Tour de France 2023/2024 route rumours thread.

We all appreciate Time Trials and we have more or less in common, that we are convinced the latest they should be done is at the first stage after the last rest day. A showdown in the mountains is always more entertaining than on the aerobars.

 

[pman]

I definitely agree that end of Tour ITTs are all or nothing. Either they become the most exciting day of racing for that calendar year like in Pog's first Tour victory or they become largely uninspiring events. I agree that for an ITT to be used properly they need to occur earlier in the race.

So much of it has to do with personnel. During Froome's run it seemed like he was the only true GC guy who climb and TT so an early or mid race time trial basically decided the GC which wasn't fun for anyone besides the Froomites.

However as a few of you mentioned, we now have the GC riders to go through a long mid-race ITT. When used properly the mid-race ITT makes for a much more exciting race.

I forgot about last year's Tour having two decent ITTs. Count me in with the crowd that would love to see longer and longer ITTs.

Just know NO TTTs please.

 

[Red Rick]

As I wrote, Pogacar clearly wasn't happy where he was ahead of the TT and rode relatively aggressively. People forget how much he attacked Roglic before being dropped on the Col de la Loze and then being weaker the day after. Of course there were no 2022 like fireworks but that simply wasn't to be expected of a 21 y.o. in his first ever Tour. I simply don't think he would have attacked any more without the TT.

I remember Peyresourde being the only real committed attack? He didn't attack once in the Alps if I remember correctly

 

[Escarabajo]

That 1986 Tour was one of the most epic Tours I have seen in my life. Now there were 3 stages (climbs) that were eliminated from the organizers list from this Tour. There are 2 to go after this year. That one from the Pyrenees was an epic one and I want to see it just like we saw Granon this year.

 

[pman]

I watched the 2003 Tour. I totally forgot about that insane (I mean it in a bad way) 69 K TTT. What a dumb stage. The whole point of the race of truth is that GC guys can't hide. So then you create a time trial (TTT) where GC guys can both hide and gain time. Dumbest idea ever. It's like creating a mountain stage where you can only attack if you have 4 teammates on your wheel. Maddening.

With that said, I enjoy the TTT at international events. It's a fun concept , just one that should have no weight on GC and doesn't belong in grand tours.

 

[pman]

You must live in a fantasy world if you think Vingegaard and Pogacar would lose 4-5 minutes on Remco in a long TT.

To be fair, that depends on which Vingegaard shows up. Does the Vingegaard of 2020 show up, the one who lost 6 minutes to Roglic in an ITT, the 2019 Vingegaard who finished 7th in a ITT in the Tour of Denmark or does the 2022 Vingegaard show up, the one who looked like he could beat a Formula 1 car in a time trial? Because Remco would like his chances of putting 4-5 minutes into a pre-2021 Vingegaard.