Tour de France Tour de France 2025 Stage 12: Auch - Hautacam (180.6k)

[No Excuses]

Despite the crash Pog will swing the hammer like thor tomorrow. He will only be at 98% but Mr 98% still beats the time of Mr 60%.
If not see you at the vuelta.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Likely some GC differences to be made but after Pogi crashed i am not all that sure if significant. It's up to Jonas i guess, if he can solo away or other three will weight him down.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Pogacar should win with some seconds over Vingegaard. Vingegaard’s climbing has been worse and he has had his struggles to keep Pogacar’s wheel. Overall Visma might not go all the way in to tire Pogacar more to see if there’s more time lost in the MTT since it’d be the second day.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Pog
1'30 Jonas
3'00 Gall, Remco, Lipo

Game over, go home Jonas

 

[pman]

I am rooting for Rog and Pog tomorrow but I think Jonas wins by about 35 seconds if Pog is banged up but not hurt, over a minute and a half if Pog is worse off than he let on. Hard to imagine Pog beating Jonas tomorrow after today. Even with just road rash, hard to see him winning. With that said, if he gains time or finishes together, that must be a massive moral blow to Jumbo.

 

[Sciatic]

I am rooting for Rog and Pog tomorrow but I think Jonas wins by about 35 seconds if Pog is banged up but not hurt, over a minute and a half if Pog is worse off than he let on. Hard to imagine Pog beating Jonas tomorrow after today. Even with just road rash, hard to see him winning. With that said, if he gains time or finishes together, that must be a massive moral blow to Jumbo.

morale? Their morality has always been questionable.

 

[Rob5091]

Adam Yates, how will he do? Pogi's wingman. If UAE blow up early it'll be interesting, otherwise a long slow chugging of the trains in the heat, until the best two climbers ride away to sprint for the win.
This might also be the stage when Roglic's GC days are well and truely declared over.
Friday's stage will weigh on the minds of the favourites as there will be no hiding.

 

[Cagalitroso]

Riis in 1996, just before launching the attack:

View: https://youtu.be/BqrwUnhSigo?t=95

Heavy weight compared to flyweight.

Riis on Wegovy would have made Pog crying and Vingo dialing for his wife.

Thanks, I had to take a blood thinner after watching that

 

[Cagalitroso]

No option for Remco smoking the 2 other W/Kg merchants in the poll?

 

[rghysens]

It just an example, no need to be exactly 5.9 w/kg.

I remember about a better example. Col de la ramaz before joux plane in the Tour 2023. They did 5.8/5.9 during half an hour. The peloton had 25/30 guys. This is not hard.

2023 is like the stone age.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Visma team briefing before the stage:
Grischa: Pogacar is hurt so this is our day. Jonas, show the world who's the strongest!
Jorgenson: I'll make his life hell.
Trine: Honey, don't go fast. Don't tire yourself out. There's some serious work to do at home.
Vingo: Yes, ma'am. If Tadej says he's gone & dead I will wait for him and go slowly.
Grischa: Loser! If you do it you'll be back to fish packing and I'll end with myself.

 

[elguapo]

No option for Remco smoking the 2 other W/Kg merchants in the poll?

Forget about UAE and Visma, Remco should work with the top 8 to 15 in the GC for mass attack inorder to sort out the overall standing early and to end those Pogi-Vingo debates.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

if last year is any indication, all 3 aliens will SHATTER the all time record time

So who is the 3rd alien? As far as I can see, there are only 2, with the others making up the rest of the top ten. I know what you're trying to get at, but he isn't an alien in GT's until proven.

 

[KZD]

Pogacar
Vingegaard + 30 seconds
Lipowitz, Remco, Roglic + 1.30min
Jorgenson, Gall + 2min

I don't see a breakaway winning today, because Visma will want to test Pogacar after his crash yesterday

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar
Vingegaard + 30 seconds
Lipowitz, Remco, Roglic + 1.30min
Jorgenson, Gall + 2min

I don't see a breakaway winning today, because Visma will want to test Pogacar after his crash yesterday

If Pogacar is at his best, only Vingo will finish under 2'

 

[Rob5091]

Pogacar
Vingegaard + 30 seconds
Lipowitz, Remco, Roglic + 1.30min
Jorgenson, Gall + 2min

I don't see a breakaway winning today, because Visma will want to test Pogacar after his crash yesterday

Don't forget this is just day 1 of 3 tough days so I would not expect too many fireworks. 100 km to the first climb might well mean a breakway gets enough time to get to the finish first.

 

[Cookster15]

Scared to predict, partially because I am always wrong. But I get the sense Pogacar’s injuries are superficial only and he might even do a “Lance” on this stage (2003 Luz Ardiden). We will see.

One thing for certain is Visma will throw everything at this stage. They have to.

 

[Berniece]

If Pogacar breaks due to his injuries, we are in for a great TDF. Vingegaard can take a lead in the next 3 days, and Pogacar will go crazy on Ventoux as well as stage 18-19.

 

[tigabara]

Pogi wins by 1-30 seconds. But no, excitement not dies immediately? This is racing, anything can happen.

Even if Pogi is dominant, how dominant will he be? And how will Visma find a way to counter Pogi's dominance until the final stages?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

If Pogacar breaks due to his injuries, we are in for a great TDF. Vingegaard can take a lead in the next 3 days, and Pogacar will go crazy on Ventoux as well as stage 18-19.

Usually, if you break due to injuries, the injuries don‘t get better that easily. But it‘s of course possible that his injuries impede him exactly so much that he‘s slightly worse than Vingegaard.

 

[RedheadDane]

I like that the stage starts in 'Auch', which might be how everyone's legs are feeling when they finish.

 

[Berniece]

Usually, if you break due to injuries, the injuries don‘t get better that easily. But it‘s of course possible that his injuries impede him exactly so much that he‘s slightly worse than Vingegaard.

Could easily be like Evenepoel in Vuelta 2022. He falls, and can't even get off a bike, so loses time in the next two days. He recovers and wins again in further mountain stages.

 

[fenns]

I see 3 scenarios: Pog wins gapping the GC guys, GC sprint Pog/Jonas, random breakaway guy

betting

Pog 50%
Jonas 25%
everyone else a rank outsider

 

[Blanco]

Visma will use this stage to test UAE strength. They will try to isolate Pogacar as soon as possible, and if they succeed than they will attack with Jorgenson. Vinge will wait as long as possible, and if Pog doesn't attack himself, Vinge will try in the last 3km.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Visma will use this stage to test UAE strength. They will try to isolate Pogacar as soon as possible, and if they succeed than they will attack with Jorgenson. Vinge will wait as long as possible, and if Pog doesn't attack himself, Vinge will try in the last 3km.

If it works out the way you describe it, I think Vingegaard should attack on the 2k 10% section that starts like 6,5k from the finish to see if he can make a dent an gain more time back.
As I believe that Pogi seems to be fine, my guess is Pogi will attack on said 10% section and take like 60 seconds.
Only a few more hours and we will know!