Tour de France Tour de France 2025 Stage 12: Auch - Hautacam (180.6k)

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Gap between Pogi and Vingo on Hautacam

  • They arrive at the finish together

    Votes: 22 16.2%
  • Pogi wins by 1-30 seconds

    Votes: 22 16.2%
  • Pogi wins by 31-60 seconds

    Votes: 29 21.3%
  • Pogi wins by over a minute

    Votes: 28 20.6%
  • Vingo wins by 1-30 seconds

    Votes: 9 6.6%
  • Vingo wins by 31-60 seconds

    Votes: 6 4.4%
  • Vingo wins by over a minute

    Votes: 7 5.1%
  • Race cancelled (due to Pogi's brushes)

    Votes: 13 9.6%

  • Total voters
    136
Pogacar should win with some seconds over Vingegaard. Vingegaard’s climbing has been worse and he has had his struggles to keep Pogacar’s wheel. Overall Visma might not go all the way in to tire Pogacar more to see if there’s more time lost in the MTT since it’d be the second day.
 
I am rooting for Rog and Pog tomorrow but I think Jonas wins by about 35 seconds if Pog is banged up but not hurt, over a minute and a half if Pog is worse off than he let on. Hard to imagine Pog beating Jonas tomorrow after today. Even with just road rash, hard to see him winning. With that said, if he gains time or finishes together, that must be a massive moral blow to Jumbo.
 
I am rooting for Rog and Pog tomorrow but I think Jonas wins by about 35 seconds if Pog is banged up but not hurt, over a minute and a half if Pog is worse off than he let on. Hard to imagine Pog beating Jonas tomorrow after today. Even with just road rash, hard to see him winning. With that said, if he gains time or finishes together, that must be a massive moral blow to Jumbo.
morale? Their morality has always been questionable. ;)
 
Adam Yates, how will he do? Pogi's wingman. If UAE blow up early it'll be interesting, otherwise a long slow chugging of the trains in the heat, until the best two climbers ride away to sprint for the win.
This might also be the stage when Roglic's GC days are well and truely declared over.
Friday's stage will weigh on the minds of the favourites as there will be no hiding.
 
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Visma team briefing before the stage:
Grischa: Pogacar is hurt so this is our day. Jonas, show the world who's the strongest!
Jorgenson: I'll make his life hell.
Trine: Honey, don't go fast. Don't tire yourself out. There's some serious work to do at home.
Vingo: Yes, ma'am. If Tadej says he's gone & dead I will wait for him and go slowly.
Grischa: Loser! If you do it you'll be back to fish packing and I'll end with myself.
 
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Pogacar
Vingegaard + 30 seconds
Lipowitz, Remco, Roglic + 1.30min
Jorgenson, Gall + 2min

I don't see a breakaway winning today, because Visma will want to test Pogacar after his crash yesterday
Don't forget this is just day 1 of 3 tough days so I would not expect too many fireworks. 100 km to the first climb might well mean a breakway gets enough time to get to the finish first.
 
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Scared to predict, partially because I am always wrong. But I get the sense Pogacar’s injuries are superficial only and he might even do a “Lance” on this stage (2003 Luz Ardiden). We will see.

One thing for certain is Visma will throw everything at this stage. They have to.
 
Jul 14, 2024
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Pogi wins by 1-30 seconds. But no, excitement not dies immediately? This is racing, anything can happen.

Even if Pogi is dominant, how dominant will he be? And how will Visma find a way to counter Pogi's dominance until the final stages?
 
If Pogacar breaks due to his injuries, we are in for a great TDF. Vingegaard can take a lead in the next 3 days, and Pogacar will go crazy on Ventoux as well as stage 18-19.
Usually, if you break due to injuries, the injuries don‘t get better that easily. But it‘s of course possible that his injuries impede him exactly so much that he‘s slightly worse than Vingegaard.
 
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Usually, if you break due to injuries, the injuries don‘t get better that easily. But it‘s of course possible that his injuries impede him exactly so much that he‘s slightly worse than Vingegaard.
Could easily be like Evenepoel in Vuelta 2022. He falls, and can't even get off a bike, so loses time in the next two days. He recovers and wins again in further mountain stages.
 
Visma will use this stage to test UAE strength. They will try to isolate Pogacar as soon as possible, and if they succeed than they will attack with Jorgenson. Vinge will wait as long as possible, and if Pog doesn't attack himself, Vinge will try in the last 3km.
 
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Visma will use this stage to test UAE strength. They will try to isolate Pogacar as soon as possible, and if they succeed than they will attack with Jorgenson. Vinge will wait as long as possible, and if Pog doesn't attack himself, Vinge will try in the last 3km.

If it works out the way you describe it, I think Vingegaard should attack on the 2k 10% section that starts like 6,5k from the finish to see if he can make a dent an gain more time back.
As I believe that Pogi seems to be fine, my guess is Pogi will attack on said 10% section and take like 60 seconds.
Only a few more hours and we will know!
 

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