Tour de France Tour de France 2025 Stage 12: Auch - Hautacam (180.6k)

[houtdffan]

Vingegaard and Pogacar should both be able to beat it. I think it breaks unless they neutralize each other.

Vingegaard was only 2 minutes slower in 2022, and there were quite a few factors that made that time suboptimal.

if last year is any indication, all 3 aliens will SHATTER the all time record time

 

[Kedjan]

If Pogi attacks it might be later than planed due to the crash. He might be a bit uncertain how the body reacts if he goes long, say 10-12k out. And there is the MTT the day after.

There is a steep section 5-7k from the finish where I believe he could go. Problem then might be that he doesn't have any doms with him anymore, setting up his attack, which should increase the likelihood Vinge can follow . If Vinge can't follow the attack I still don't think he will lose that much in 5-6k, 20-25s?

If he actually goes long, 10-12k from the finish, then I would say the crash hasn't hurt him much, otherwise I think he will be more careful.

The interesting thing here is how Visma will ride tomorrow. Will they start pacing hard on Soulor? Trying to drop UAE doms to isolate Pog so he is without much help at the foot of Hautacam? And maybe try to wear Pog down if he doesn't feel well?

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

After what will happen to Vingo on Hautacam*, the starting town will change its name to Ouch.

Spoiler

Unless Pog is feeling the crash badly that is

 

[Rackham]

I checked the weather forecast for Argelès-Gazost tomorrow afternoon: 30°C.

Heat will play a role.

 

[pman]

If Pogi attacks it might be later than planed due to the crash. He might be a bit uncertain how the body reacts if he goes long, say 10-12k out. And there is the MTT the day after.

There is a steep section 5-7k from the finish where I believe he could go. Problem then might be that he doesn't have any doms with him anymore, setting up his attack, which should increase the likelihood Vinge can follow . If Vinge can't follow the attack I still don't think he will lose that much in 5-6k, 20-25s?

If he actually goes long, 10-12k from the finish, then I would say the crash hasn't hurt him much, otherwise I think he will be more careful.

The interesting thing here is how Visma will ride tomorrow. Will they start pacing hard on Soulor? Trying to drop UAE doms to isolate Pog so he is without much help at the foot of Hautacam? And maybe try to wear Pog down if he doesn't feel well?

If Jumbo doesn't ride hard tomorrow- I don't know which way up is anymore. They've been riding insanely hard this whole race- to the point of everyone wondering if they were over doing it and would pay the price themselves. Now that Pog crashes and we're in the high mountains? No way they don't do every thing in their power to break UAE, Pog and the race. The only way they don't blow it up tomorrow is if they have data that Ving needs an easy day before a time trial. Even then, given Pog's crash, I think they go hard.

 

[Stubb]

Yup, because the alpine stages are so nicely designed that 4 minutes are easily achievable.

Some people in here will pretend there is fun and there will be battles when in fact 4 minutes will be next to impossible to overturn.
As I said 2022 all over again with the outcome being all but clear.

1 min on Combloux one month ago, could be 2 or more just on Ventoux. And, btw I quite enjoeyd 2022 tour, 2024 was much more boring/predictable.

 

[Kedjan]

If Jumbo doesn't ride hard tomorrow- I don't know which way up is anymore. They've been riding insanely hard this whole race- to the point of everyone wondering if they were over doing it and would pay the price themselves. Now that Pog crashes and we're in the high mountains? No way they don't do every thing in their power to break UAE, Pog and the race. The only way they don't blow it up tomorrow is if they have data that Ving needs an easy day before a time trial. Even then, given Pog's crash, I think they go hard.

Agree, it would be stupid and out of line with their strategy if the don't ride hard tomorrow. My prediction is that Affini will start to drive hard when the slight uphill slope begins 70-80k from the finish, maybe even earlier.

 

[YavorD]

1 min on Combloux one month ago, could be 2 or more just on Ventoux. And, btw I quite enjoeyd 2022 tour, 2024 was much more boring/predictable.

If he is so bad to drop 4 minutes (5 in total) over 3 stages, I don't think he will recover so much that he simply puts 2 minutes on Ventoux.
Pretty sure with such a gap the Tour would be over.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Not enough options in the poll...
Since most of the GC boys have been talking about this being the start of the race, presumable someone will start racing with a bit of panache here or shall we wait for the MTT where noone can hide?

 

[solo80k]

Come on guys, poll should be the climbing time.

Spoiler

33:51

Spoiler: Climbing record

33:15

 

[meat puppet]

If pogacar is half the rider he is made out to be, he will:

1) ride the hautacam on the big ring (of course)

2) drop back in the still rather sizeable group to check the facial expressions of the others (power meter of the old days)

3) take a swig after a few false starts, just go for it, and ride himself into a legend (which is greater than "goat")

While 1 & 3 are cool, step 2 is the crucial one.

 

[kingjr]

If pogacar is half the rider he is made out to be, he will:

1) ride the hautacam on the big ring (of course)

2) drop back in the still rather sizeable group to check the facial expressions of the others (power meter of the old days)

3) take a swig after a few false starts, just go for it, and ride himself into a legend (which is greater than "goat")

While 1 & 3 are cool, step 2 is the crucial one.

And drop a winner of half a dozen GTs while you're at it. Where is Chris Froome when you need him?

 

[Froome]

Not expecting the record after today's crash.

The record will be broken.

 

[Gratemans]

Am I the only one who's shocked to learn that Hautacam was climbed only six times before in the Tour? Always sounds like one of those real Tour icons to me.

 

[meat puppet]

And drop a winner of half a dozen GTs while you're at it. Where is Chris Froome when you need him?

Even better: make Indurain pedal out of the saddle. (Vinge and evenepoel, combined, will be Indurain).

Hautacam is legendary because of the eagle of herning, one and only.

 

[Froome]

If Pogi attacks it might be later than planed due to the crash. He might be a bit uncertain how the body reacts if he goes long, say 10-12k out. And there is the MTT the day after.

There is a steep section 5-7k from the finish where I believe he could go. Problem then might be that he doesn't have any doms with him anymore, setting up his attack, which should increase the likelihood Vinge can follow . If Vinge can't follow the attack I still don't think he will lose that much in 5-6k, 20-25s?

If he actually goes long, 10-12k from the finish, then I would say the crash hasn't hurt him much, otherwise I think he will be more careful.

The interesting thing here is how Visma will ride tomorrow. Will they start pacing hard on Soulor? Trying to drop UAE doms to isolate Pog so he is without much help at the foot of Hautacam? And maybe try to wear Pog down if he doesn't feel well?

What is the definition of Visma pulling hard?

For me, if Visma let 20 guys in the peloton after doing 5.9 w/kg on soulor during 30 minutes, it is not hard.

If they go really hard, like 6.5 w/kg and only Vingegaard, pogacar, jorgenson/yates and maybe evenepoel together after soulor, then it was a hard pace.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

The record will be broken.

Noone will beat riis when considering his weight.

 

[Red Rick]

What is the definition of Visma pulling hard?

For me, if Visma let 20 guys in the peloton after doing 5.9 w/kg on soulor during 30 minutes, it is not hard.

If they go really hard, like 6.5 w/kg and only Vingegaard, pogacar, jorgenson/yates and maybe evenepoel together after soulor, then it was a hard pace.

5.9 isn't gonna drop anyone. Not tomorrow. That's slower than 2020 Port de Bales which had 30 guys cresting.

 

[Froome]

5.9 isn't gonna drop anyone. Not tomorrow. That's slower than 2020 Port de Bales which had 30 guys cresting.

It just an example, no need to be exactly 5.9 w/kg.

I remember about a better example. Col de la ramaz before joux plane in the Tour 2023. They did 5.8/5.9 during half an hour. The peloton had 25/30 guys. This is not hard.

 

[Red Rick]

It just an example, no need to be exactly 5.9 w/kg.

I remember about a better example. Col de la ramaz before joux plane in the Tour 2023. They did 5.8/5.9 during half an hour. The peloton had 25/30 guys. This is not hard.

That was a much harder day overall.

I think you actually start with the end point you have and reason backwards from that. Do you want to attack or defend. If yes, do you torch Jorgenson? I think they won't.

There's also a world where they just try to do breakaway attacks again, but this stage isn't well suited for that at all.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Riis in 1996, just before launching the attack:

View: https://youtu.be/BqrwUnhSigo?t=95

Heavy weight compared to flyweight.

Riis on Wegovy would have made Pog crying and Vingo dialing for his wife.

 

[Schultz0620]

Pog to just follow Jonas after his crash today. If the stage is available, I do think he will take it.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Riis in 1996, just before launching the attack:

View: https://youtu.be/BqrwUnhSigo?t=95

Heavy weight compared to flyweight.

Riis on Wegovy would have made Pog crying and Vingo dialing for his wife.

That wasn't Wegovy he was on.

 

[Jan the Man]

Visma must go all in not use Jorgensen as a platform - he should ride full gas see if vigno can ride pog off his wheel. Reality is if he can’t ride him off his wheel tomorrow he is unlikely to be able to take huge chunks of time from him in the TT. Pog will be at his most vulnerable because of the crash they must cash their chips.

 

[Lorzenz08]

Visma must go all in not use Jorgensen as a platform - he should ride full gas see if vigno can ride pog off his wheel. Reality is if he can’t ride him off his wheel tomorrow he is unlikely to be able to take huge chunks of time from him in the TT. Pog will be at his most vulnerable because of the crash they must cash their chips.

Actually not really, the worse effects of such a crash is bad recovery. Even if tomorrow Pogi follows, he will still have a less than idea recovery for the MTT, and then again worse than ideal recovery for Saturday.

This accumulation of fatigue might add up and make him explode on Saturday