After 3rd restday, Who will win the 2014 Giro?

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

How strong can get Nairo in the last week, having a 2:40 deficit to overturn it?




...all I can see here is that we'll have a Pantani-Tonkov like duel between Nairo & Rigoberto on the Zoncolan

Hopefully with Aru in the mix as well.

Quintana doesn't have to get much stronger relative to Uran. 2:40 isn't a huge deficit with Val Martello, and especially the MTT and Zoncolan in mind. Plus another MTF. It's a big enough gap, but nothing crazy.

 

[oliveira]

Voted for Úran as I think 2:40 is already too much for Quintana as there's any team that can put Úran and OPQS on pressure before the MTF's, and Úran is the guy that needs rest the most.

 

[Rollthedice]

Uran seems still in control. He wasn't taxed enough yesterday for what was obviously a bad day, maybe the only one he'll have. The only one who can take the Giro away from him is Nairo but it will be difficult. I think Aru will loose time in the MTT.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Uran seems still in control. He wasn't taxed enough yesterday for what was obviously a bad day, maybe the only one he'll have. The only one who can take the Giro away from him is Nairo but it will be difficult. I think Aru will loose time in the MTT.

I am afraid of this too. He seems to go better the longer and harder the stage and mountains are, so even though the mountain is hard the stage is still short, and he will loose time on the first 7 km of flat

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Well if that is true than Aru should have a field day on tuesday.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Well if that is true than Aru should have a field day on tuesday.

He will win the stage with over 1 minute on Quintana and Pozzo, and over 1:50 on the rest. No worries

 

[ILovecycling]

Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas.

 

[del1962]

Still think this is Uran's to lose, from today it seems those who will seriously challenge him are ove two minutes back, I can only really see Quintana making up such a big difference but has not shown that form yet

 

[Eclipse]

I voted Uran, but I'm hoping for Nairo.

I don't think anybody could begrudge an Aru win though =p

 

[icefire]

Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas.

He needs to drop that Rojas from his name if he wants to win something

 

[Nuash65]

The MTT is absolutely crucial and a bigger unknown in terms of likely / possible performances. Uran killed the flatter ITT, Quintana should be fully fit and nearly won a bumpy TT last year against quality. What of Aru? Nowhere in last year's MTT but I imagine he wasn't trying to be then quickest up the bump of the first ITT this year.

My guess is Aru will be brilliant on Tuesday and everyone will install him as favourite. I hope he wins this Giro but voted Uran because of the MTT.

 

[ILovecycling]

He needs to drop that Rojas from his name if he wants to win something

Lol,good one

 

[arvc40]

After today's stage I have no idea who will take Giro. Evans won't though !.

 

[Pricey_sky]

I voted Uran but it will be very close, if this poll had been done yesterday I would have gone on Pozzovivo but he had a bad day today which means even a podium now will be tough.

Quintana and Aru are the main dangers in that order, if Uran doesn't win it then I'd side with Quintana due to his slightly better experience.

 

[karlboss]

Great Giro so far? Please tell me you're kidding, this reminds me of the 2011 Tour first two weeks with no action and the most significant gaps caused by crashes, with luck like the 2011 Tour an epic 3rd week will erase the first 2 weeks from our minds. The strength and weakness of this 3rd week is the number of MTFs. 4 one of them being a MTT and another being about the hardest MTF in pro cycling. The strength is that time will be made and lost by an extremely tight group of contenders effecting the overall, and the weakness is that I'm guessing most(all) of the top riders will tell themselves that for their best result they should ride conservatively, and ride at their best on the final climbs, don't take risks and attack early and others will crumble and they'll make up their time. For the top 6, all they need is one great day vs one bad to Uran and they're in Pink or even 4 good days vs Uran's ok days.
I'm looking for Basso, Hesjedal, Rolland, Pozzovivo to launch something from 60km out on 16, 18, or 20. The trick is to have support where you need it, and make sure the others don't when they do.

 

[SafeBet]

Voted for Aru in every poll thus far and I don't see a reason for stopping now.

 

[The Hitch]

Pozzovivo, if he had his bad day already he's in good shape but he's never really, this year or before, shown the form to win a grand tour.

Aru is an unknown quantity. Could yet be a bad day in him like Nibali after grappa (or Nibali every gt ever)

Can there be any doubt now though that 1990 is the golden generation.3 of the top 4 favourites now. 2 of the favourites for the white jersey at the tour De France and then there's Sagan.

 

[luckyboy]

Quintana over Uran, but if Aru keeps this form then he wins. Big if.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Pozzovivo, if he had his bad day already he's in good shape but he's never really, this year or before, shown the form to win a grand tour.

Aru is an unknown quantity. Could yet be a bad day in him like Nibali after grappa (or Nibali every gt ever)

Can there be any doubt now though that 1990 is the golden generation.3 of the top 4 favourites now. 2 of the favourites for the white jersey at the tour De France and then there's Sagan.

Quintana and Aru, but who is 3rd?
Majka is '89 and Kelderman '91

Kwiat and Bardet for the white in TDF?

 

[The Hitch]

Quintana and Aru, but who is 3rd?
Majka is '89 and Kelderman '91

Kwiat and Bardet for the white in TDF?

Majka is 89? my bad.

Pinot not Bardet though.

If I take a more liberal definition of "year" though, then in the 12 months between September 1989 and August 1990 we have
Betancur
Majka
Quintana
Sagan
Phinney
Aru
Kwiatkowski
Pinot
Bouhanni

 

[Big Doopie]

i voted uran cuz he will continue to ride within himself and dispense 20 secs here and there to quintana. however a mountain TT doesn't necessarily advantage the best climber. it advantages the best climber who also TTs well (hinault used to DESTROY the field in mountain TTs). Uran should put time into rivals in the mountain TT. if he does, game over.

however, i only voted for uran, cuz Hesj was not an option.

 

[Afrank]

Still sticking with Nairito. He has everything under control, is tranquillo, and ready to make his mark in the Italian mountains. No reason to think he can't still take this.

The first couple weeks of this Giro were pretty boring, but things in GC seem to have been set up nicely for a very good final week. Still lots a number of guys with the potential to shake up the GC. With a number of big GC stages to come, anything is still possible.

Of the other riders, I'd like to see Aru get a top 5 at least (would love a podium as well), Pozzovivo to make a comeback from his bad day today in the later mountains, Evans to make the podium would be nice to see. Uran, I don't know, we'll see. He just hasn't convinced me he has the climbing form to carry pink all the way through. He can claim everything is under control all he wants, but when a race can be won on seconds, every second that is taken out of his lead counts.

 

[Afrank]

The MTT is absolutely crucial and a bigger unknown in terms of likely / possible performances. Uran killed the flatter ITT, Quintana should be fully fit and nearly won a bumpy TT last year against quality. What of Aru? Nowhere in last year's MTT but I imagine he wasn't trying to be then quickest up the bump of the first ITT this year.

My guess is Aru will be brilliant on Tuesday and everyone will install him as favourite. I hope he wins this Giro but voted Uran because of the MTT.

It was his first GT, and he was working for Nibali. Maybe he rode it easy to recovery after the sickness he had earlier. Save his energy for the next days MTF which he did very well on to finish 5th.

 

[Sciatic]

All I can say is ugh, the Giro organizers have some nerve scheduling a rest day on a U.S. national holiday and just as the race is beginning to heat up!

Another stage Would have been perfect to start the day tomorrow. Perhaps I'll need to substitute some of the Pantani highlight videos in lieu of a real stage

 

[no_slipstream]

Changed mind from Uran to Quintana, he is looks better at the end of a stage than all other gc riders, the only one who looks as fresh as him is the winner in the last 2 stages anyway.