jraama said:
What I don’t understand is how the UCI, JV and others can herald the biopassport as changing doping in cycling and being a model for the future of clean sports given what MA just revealed. It’s great that suspicious profiles are being reviewed by experts, and those expert reviews are the basis for opening BP cases, but apparently the UCI have non-experts with exclusive power in determining which profiles are initially flagged as suspicious.
There is a really weak link in that chain which I don’t believe has been mentioned before now.
The way it's supposed to work is that it goes to an expert panel to review if the values are significant at a certain level. There is software that determines the level of significance, this is completely objective, and not dependent on anyone's view, including anyone at the UCI. The panel then determines if the values indicate doping, and this is a somewhat subjective process.
This is my understanding of how the process works. My understanding also is that while Ashenden believes he never saw LA's values in his capacity as a panel member, he doesn't know whether or not someone else did. So there are two possibilities (not counting possible scenarios involving corruption): 1) the software indicated that LA's values did not rise to the necessary level of significance; or 2) the values did trip the criterion and were sent to a panel, but the panel concluded that the evidence was not strong enough for doping.
Far be it from me to criticize Ashenden for his claim that the values indicated blood doping, but none of the values I have seen come close to the old off-score standard of 132 that determined if the ratio of Hb/retics was too high. Therefore, I don't think the values tripped the software. Ashenden said in another interview that many times an expert can conclude blood doping even if the values do not appear objectively significant. He said in cases like these, it just isn't possible to convince non-experts that blood doping occurred, and so the case is not pursued. (Just as GJ might conclude there is enough evidence to indicate guilt, but doesn't indict because it doesn't believe it can convince a jury of this). So this may be one of those cases.
As has been discussed here before, this is where rider testimony could really help. If it can be shown that LA transfused shortly before some of these suspicious values occurred, that would greatly strengthen the case against him.
Edit: In an earlier discussion of Parisotto's analysis, which also concluded that LA transfused, I pointed out that a large, nominally suspicious increase in HT was elevated to some extent because it was being compared to a "baseline" value taken during the Giro, when in fact LA's HT would have been expected to be lower than normal. When his later HT/Hb value was compared with a more normal baseline, the increase was not so much. That said, as Ashenden notes, any time a rider's HT doesn't decrease during a GT (as was the case in the 09 TDF for LA), it is suspicious.