I was at the start today. I also know the location of the crash, it is treacherous - you lose a lane and there is gravel with a narrow bridge right afterward. I still do not understand why the ToC took that route out of town. The road is so bad that I have only been on it a couple of times in the past several years of riding. There is a much better road that parallels one mile to the south which is the preferred route of travel by the local cyclists going east.
I saw photos of Lances injuries at our LBS; he was bleeding pretty good from the face. I also understood that approximately 65 riders went down as well. While it is always fun to speculate I just do not take this as a faked injury.
We "auto chased" the peloton up the road to the intersection after the crash, other than viewing several ambulances, the peloton appeared to be intact as it passed in front of us.
On a side issue, I did get some great photos at the start today and it looked to me that Andy Schleck was out for a Sunday riding about 200 yards back of the field on the second loop through town. Lance looked fairly serious on the first pass (the only one I got a photo of). As for the rest of the riders, nothing appeared out of the ordinary.
Convenenient as it is now, and convenient as it may become with the weeks ahead, I am actually gonna give him a pass on suspicions over the crash.
The longest stretch I can get out of it is that it is inconclusive. The shortest one that he saw an opportunity after an unfortunate event, and took a convenient route out of this mess. I kinda expect this happened as it is sold, wasn't good and decided to call it quits (and I am sure that the background will have pushed any considerations to the contrary out of the way if there were other options).
Without any images of how the crash happened, it is far too easy to let the excitement of the day and "wishful" readings of the incident take the head for one conspiracy ride too many. There is enough damning stuff around. It would be awful if made-up ones started to trivialize the real ones.