Behavioural indications of PED use

Jun 20, 2010
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Several rider testimonies say that many riders and whole teams have used PEDs for years. Despite this, direct evidence of doping in cycling: a positive A and B sample is quite rare.

However, many experienced clinic contributers know how to spot the PED users long before they get caught. This detection of PED use is done by interpreting the way the riders and teams perform during races and out of competition, and by analyzing the history of persons associated with the riders and teams. This is of course an qualitative analysis.

My suggestion is to make a more quantitative indicator system that can be used to grade the likelyhood that a rider or team uses PEDs. It should be based on major and minor indications.

For example, a major indication would be: A rider flees (Ricco) or delays (Armstrong) the doping control. A rider wins the majority of races he/she enters one year, and none the next (Gilbert). A sprinter wins a mountain-top finish (Abdoujaparov). Every rider on a team is stronger in the mountains than any rider from any other teams (Sky). Sudden and decisive ability to time trial (Sastre) etc.

In my opinion, a minor indicator would be: Personal association with PED involved riders, coaches, team leaders, doctors (F. Schleck). Forgiveness towards known PED users (Horner) etc.

Experienced clinic contributors are welcome to suggest more major or minor indicators. :)Major indicators should be clearcut enough to categorize a behaviour as very likely associated with PED use. The minor indicators should be less strong, only indicating likelyhood of PED use if several indicators are present in the same team or the same rider (eg. 3 or 5 minor indicators would be necessary in order to categorize a behaviour as a likely result of PED use).

Hopefully, the contributions will allow the construction of a list that can be used to grade suspicious behaviour in professional cycling.
 
Aug 13, 2010
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The size of the riders head grows. There is a thread around here somewhere related to this very phenomenon wrt Contador that I suggest you read. It is very informative and the pictorial proof is damning.
 
Aug 13, 2010
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D-Queued said:
Poor behavioral control, roid rage.

Cycles of depression.

Other causes of these obviously, but these are well documented side effects.

Dave.
I would have assumed that cyclists would not be using huge amounts of steroids as bulking would be detrimental to them. Would such a dosage be expected to cause roid rage?
 
Don't be late Pedro said:
I would have assumed that cyclists would not be using huge amounts of steroids as bulking would be detrimental to them. Would such a dosage be expected to cause roid rage?
Can we add examples to this thread, or shall we just cite the behavioral indications?

Bulking is detrimental, but it is hard to bulk when you are not doing the kind of exercise required for that. We know what the cocktails are, and can readily reference the side effects.

Dave.

Edit to add: Cocktail is now allowed and doesn't trip the filter!!!
 
Aug 27, 2012
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I think a system that identifies the factors that someone is clean is more useful.
Fewer things to look at. Basically great cycling genes and early test results, outstanding junior performances, but generally not making the cut in the pro ranks. Everyone else in the past 15 years is likely to have doped.
 
Jun 20, 2010
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Don't be late Pedro said:
The size of the riders head grows. There is a thread around here somewhere related to this very phenomenon wrt Contador that I suggest you read. It is very informative and the pictorial proof is damning.
I agree on the observation of signs of acromegaly in many athletes. On the other hand, these measurements are typically made on photos which makes exact and precise measurements difficult. The alternative is difficult to perform against the will of the subject:


A clear sign of HGH misuse would be the need to dental surgery/bracing caused by misalignment of the teeth caused by lower jaw growth.
 
Aug 10, 2010
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ulrikmm said:
Several rider testimonies say that many riders and whole teams have used PEDs for years. Despite this, direct evidence of doping in cycling: a positive A and B sample is quite rare.

However, many experienced clinic contributers know how to spot the PED users long before they get caught. This detection of PED use is done by interpreting the way the riders and teams perform during races and out of competition, and by analyzing the history of persons associated with the riders and teams. This is of course an qualitative analysis.

My suggestion is to make a more quantitative indicator system that can be used to grade the likelyhood that a rider or team uses PEDs. It should be based on major and minor indications.

For example, a major indication would be: A rider flees (Ricco) or delays (Armstrong) the doping control. A rider wins the majority of races he/she enters one year, and none the next (Gilbert). A sprinter wins a mountain-top finish (Abdoujaparov). Every rider on a team is stronger in the mountains than any rider from any other teams (Sky). Sudden and decisive ability to time trial (Sastre) etc.

In my opinion, a minor indicator would be: Personal association with PED involved riders, coaches, team leaders, doctors (F. Schleck). Forgiveness towards known PED users (Horner) etc.

Experienced clinic contributors are welcome to suggest more major or minor indicators. :)Major indicators should be clearcut enough to categorize a behaviour as very likely associated with PED use. The minor indicators should be less strong, only indicating likelyhood of PED use if several indicators are present in the same team or the same rider (eg. 3 or 5 minor indicators would be necessary in order to categorize a behaviour as a likely result of PED use).

Hopefully, the contributions will allow the construction of a list that can be used to grade suspicious behaviour in professional cycling.
What about race tactics? I'd hypothesize that PEDs make riders' efforts more predictable (by the co-conspirators) and more subject to predictable pre-scripted efforts (especially) later in the race. A classic obvious example would be all the Posties assembled at the base of the last climb, but there might be subtler group behaviors that might indicate group PED use.

Positional telemetry is now available for all the riders in all the big races. The data obtained from that telemetry might be useful to identify PED-influenced tactics.

Besides, positional telemetry would be really fun to watch along with the race . . .. You could sort for different data at different times during the race . . .
 
ulrikmm said:
Several rider testimonies say that many riders and whole teams have used PEDs for years. Despite this, direct evidence of doping in cycling: a positive A and B sample is quite rare.

However, many experienced clinic contributers know how to spot the PED users long before they get caught. This detection of PED use is done by interpreting the way the riders and teams perform during races and out of competition, and by analyzing the history of persons associated with the riders and teams. This is of course an qualitative analysis.

My suggestion is to make a more quantitative indicator system that can be used to grade the likelyhood that a rider or team uses PEDs. It should be based on major and minor indications.

For example, a major indication would be: A rider flees (Ricco) or delays (Armstrong) the doping control. A rider wins the majority of races he/she enters one year, and none the next (Gilbert). A sprinter wins a mountain-top finish (Abdoujaparov). Every rider on a team is stronger in the mountains than any rider from any other teams (Sky). Sudden and decisive ability to time trial (Sastre) etc.

In my opinion, a minor indicator would be: Personal association with PED involved riders, coaches, team leaders, doctors (F. Schleck). Forgiveness towards known PED users (Horner) etc.

Experienced clinic contributors are welcome to suggest more major or minor indicators. :)Major indicators should be clearcut enough to categorize a behaviour as very likely associated with PED use. The minor indicators should be less strong, only indicating likelyhood of PED use if several indicators are present in the same team or the same rider (eg. 3 or 5 minor indicators would be necessary in order to categorize a behaviour as a likely result of PED use).

Hopefully, the contributions will allow the construction of a list that can be used to grade suspicious behaviour in professional cycling.
In my respectful view this is seriously flawed thread. Drugs (PEDs) affect everyone differently. Every person's physiological response is unique. This is a pretty basic scientific fact.

What this thread is doing is taking subjective indicators, based on speculation and innuendo, and the so-called old boy Forum "I really know what is going on, because I have 6500 posts", adding them up and saying a cyclist is a doper. There is absolutely no scientific rigor in this process, making the whole exercise a sham.

There are rules in place to discipline cyclist who miss tests, or who don't keep ADAs aware of their whereabouts etc. There are rules in place to suspend riders for tests that aren't positive for a PED but show a plasticizer or some other indirect use o PEDs. The goal of course is to do a scientific test to determine who is a doper. That is the only fair and reasonable way to do so. Cycling fans, riders, teams, organizers ought to be embracing ADAs and empowering them to enure the sport is clean.

Sure it might be a lot of fun to pontificate about who is a doper because cyclist so and so went to Dubai for the weekend of a scheduled test, but all this does is a disservice to credible forum discussion.

D-Queued's tongue in cheek posts are a good example of where this thread is going. Its like bringing back phrenology.
 
Jul 6, 2010
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MarkvW said:
What about race tactics? I'd hypothesize that PEDs make riders' efforts more predictable (by the co-conspirators) and more subject to predictable pre-scripted efforts (especially) later in the race. A classic obvious example would be all the Posties assembled at the base of the last climb, but there might be subtler group behaviors that might indicate group PED use.

Positional telemetry is now available for all the riders in all the big races. The data obtained from that telemetry might be useful to identify PED-influenced tactics.

Besides, positional telemetry would be really fun to watch along with the race . . .. You could sort for different data at different times during the race . . .
Just... Wow...
 
Aug 10, 2010
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JMBeaushrimp said:
Just... Wow...
Think about it. When it comes to doping, the only kind of "behavioral indication" that matters is race time behavior. Why not look at race time behavior and see IF YOU CAN distinguish signs of doping?
 
Jun 20, 2010
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Master50 said:
So now we can add Psych component to the bio passport? I think somebody needs a vacation.
A vacation would be nice, thanks :p

As initiator of this thread, I would like to point out that it should be regarded as an experiment. It is posted in the Clinic, remember. And I agree with the sceptics that a rider is n o t guilty until he/she admits doping, has positive doping tests, repeatedly does not report whereabouts correctly, or is convicted på ADA based on testimonies and/or other evidence.

However, the point of this thread is to determine behaviour patterns that are clearly suspicious and indicate a high l i k e l i h o o d of PED use by a rider or a team.

Contributors should not necessarily name the individuals or teams, that in the past or present have expressed the behaviour, the contributor wants to point out. The reason I did name riders or teams in my first posting was to clarify my examples. :)
 
Jul 23, 2010
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Don't be late Pedro said:
The size of the riders head grows. There is a thread around here somewhere related to this very phenomenon wrt Contador that I suggest you read. It is very informative and the pictorial proof is damning.
... lol ... lol ... lol ... that thread is hilarious!

D-Queued said:
Thought an expert viewpoint might help:...

...One message they left out, was the need to do steroids to look like the guy in the ad. How do I know? I'm a long-time gym rat. Here are the ten tells for steroid use:

1. Oversized jaw. Some steroids make the bottom grow, some make the sides at the back stick out.
2. Growth of the bony ridge of the brow.
3. Gap between the front teeth
4. Stretch marks, from where the muscles has grown faster than the skin underneath can stretch.
5. Hyper vascularization.
6. The muscle has a hamburger-ish texture.
7. A pronounced gap between the pectoralis major and minor.
8. Acne.
9. A personality prone to rages.
10. Moon faced.

Bonus clue
11. The art of their body doesn't make sense. We know how a person and their muscles should look. If the muscles are big and craggy, there's a good chance the guy's cheating.


Number10 (Moon faced) was a surprise.

Anyway, some will differ on my conclusion of these photos of Hincapie; to me something has gone 'wrong' with his face as he got older. And I'm sure there was a story about a conversation between Stephanie McIllvain and someone else about what Hincapie's children would look like. The conversation was related to drug use, iirc.

Are those veins in his legs also an indicator?
 
Microchip said:
... lol ... lol ... lol ... that thread is hilarious!





Number10 (Moon faced) was a surprise.

Anyway, some will differ on my conclusion of these photos of Hincapie; to me something has gone 'wrong' with his face as he got older. And I'm sure there was a story about a conversation between Stephanie McIllvain and someone else about what Hincapie's children would look like. The conversation was related to drug use, iirc.

Are those veins in his legs also an indicator?
Moon face is a classic prednisone symptom.

As for large veins, not sure. This is a side effect of weight workouts.

Low Testosterone is a known factor for vericose (spider) veins.

Dave.
 
Jun 20, 2010
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Obviously, there is a clear risk that the suggestions regarding physical appearance derail this thread which is focused on behavioral indicators of PED use.

Please from now and onwards, post freaky photos, observations and speculations about physical appearance in other threads. :)

Thanks.
 
ulrikmm said:
Obviously, there is a clear risk that the suggestions regarding physical appearance derail this thread which is focused on behavioral indicators of PED use.

Please from now and onwards, post freaky photos, observations and speculations about physical appearance in other threads. :)

Thanks.
No problem. Sometimes both physical and behavioral examples are found in the same person.

Sometimes. :rolleyes:

Dave.
 

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