Career in Decline CQ game 2015

I may as well use the launch of the main game as the occasion to launch this, the antidote to CQ games, as riders may come to light in the same search through rider lists.

As last year I suggest it is approached with a sense of humour and not too competitively: 26 teams entered last year (although one was way over budget and never returned with alterations to his squad), and in the end it was decided by just 25 points.

It is essentially the same as any other CQ game, this time with a squad of 15 riders (no more, no less) and a budget of up to 5000 CQ points earned in 2014. The essential difference is that you score by selecting riders who will do as poorly as possible in 2015 compared to 2014. Each rider's score in this game will be the drop in CQ points between their final 2014 score and their 2015 score. Should a rider confound your prediction and do better in 2015 than in 2014, then he will have a negative score in the game. Indeed, the most popular pick in the game last year took points off the teams that chose him.

Riders must have a contract at at least UCI Continental level to be entered into the game (thus excluding some of the extraordinary names dredged up from minor national championships results that were entered last year, and the long list of retired riders), and must have some 2014 points to lose.

As last year, a rider must a rider must race on at least 20 days (as recorded by PCS) to get their full score, if they do not, they will score their drop in points reduced proportionately (eg, Constantino Zaballa scored 268 CQ points in 2013, and only 9 in 2014, a drop of 259 points, but according to PCS, he only had 12 race days in 2014. Therefore, his value to the team that picked him for this game last year was 155 points ((268-9)*12/20) rounded to the nearest whole number). They must not have previously announced an intention to resign before racing 20 days (ie Cadel Evans is out).

Doping history does not affect a rider's eligibility or score for this game: 2014 CQ scores as published in their end of year download determine the starting point for all riders: if they were suspended for all or part of 2014, they will have fewer points to lose during the game, and even if they subsequently have 2014 results rescinded, those results will still be points they are trying to lose. And if they get nabbed during 2015, then they will probably either fail to complete 20 days or will still have points unjustly earned in 2015 on their record at the end of the year, as CQ is rarely that fast in reversing them.

If you choose anyone who I cannot find as a member of a team for 2015 (I'll probably use the team listings on uci.ch) I might ask you for evidence of the contract. Team websites or cycling websites will suffice, but they should be reporting the contract as a done deal, not just expected. I would hope to give managers every chance to confirm validity or to change your squad, which will be easier if you submit a team comfortably before the deadline, but riders who are selected but who don't have a contract will attract a 200 point penalty.

PM submissions to me by the start of the Tour Down Under stage 1 (I'll look up the date some time: it gives a little time after the main game deadline for adjusting your mindset in searches), in CQ format please. Expect monthly-ish updates, think about it as a side list while shortlisting for the main game.

Only 2 teams last year managed to lose more than half of their points: most of us would happily have swapped some of our selection with riders in our main CQ game squad. Can we do better this year at identifying those who are, at least for now, on the decline?


Teams so far (as of 8pm UK time on 18 Jan: 28 hours left)
AlPacino
Alykaptan
Armchair Cyclist
Akuryo
Del1962
Derrudi*
DJSprtsch
Fauniera
Flo
JeroenK
Joelsim
Leadbelly
Lenissart*
Rote Laterne
Shalgo
Skidmark
TheSceptic
* indicates issue with budget/eligibility: manager informed.

If teams remain overbudget, I propose to remove the cheapest rider whose removal will bring them back into the allowable spend, but that rider will be re-added to their squad if he exceeds his 2014 CQ ranking; in other words, he can provide negative points to the team, but not positive ones, so I don't think anyone can claim that teams involved will have gained any advantage by breaking the budget rules.
 
Jan 6, 2014
457
0
0
Armchair cyclist said:
As last year, a rider must a rider must race on at least 20 days (as recorded by PCS) to get their full score, if they do not, they will score their drop in points reduced proportionately (eg, Constantino Zaballa scored 268 CQ points in 2013, and only 9 in 2014, a drop of 259 points, but according to PCS, he only had 12 race days in 2014. Therefore, his value to the team that picked him for this game last year was 155 points ((268-9)*12/20) rounded to the nearest whole number). They must not have previously announced an intention to resign before racing 20 days (ie Cadel Evans is out).
hi Armchair cyclist, thanks for putting this together again. I consider entering this time when I find time for selecting the riders.

I just don't understand your example for points of riders riding less than 20 days. I think the drop of points in your example should be 253. 9 points achieved in 12 days equals 15 points in 20 days (9/12*20). 268-15=253. But maybe I'm wrong.
 
rote_laterne said:
hi Armchair cyclist, thanks for putting this together again. I consider entering this time when I find time for selecting the riders.

I just don't understand your example for points of riders riding less than 20 days. I think the drop of points in your example should be 253. 9 points achieved in 12 days equals 15 points in 20 days (9/12*20). 268-15=253. But maybe I'm wrong.
His point loss (268-9, or 259) is scaled down by a factor of 12/20, to 155.4, and thence to the nearest whole number, 155. Had he managed another 7 fruitless days of racing, he would have been worth 246 points in the game (259*19/20), and if those 9 points had been gained on his only outing of the year, he would have been worth just 13 points to those selecting him (259 * 1/20).
 
Thanks for doing this again, it sure is a lot of work. I plan to take part again (if i find the time), this time without my retired riders. ;)


Armchair cyclist said:
Riders must have a contract at at least UCI Continental level to be entered into the game (thus excluding some of the extraordinary names dredged up from minor national championships results that were entered last year, and the long list of retired riders), and must have some 2014 points to lose.
To be clear: a rider who has a contract for 2015 but scored zero points 2014 is not eligible? Is one point enough or do it have to be at least two?
 
Mar 14, 2009
2,736
0
0
fauniera said:
Thanks for doing this again, it sure is a lot of work. I plan to take part again (if i find the time), this time without my retired riders. ;)




To be clear: a rider who has a contract for 2015 but scored zero points 2014 is not eligible? Is one point enough or do it have to be at least two?
This is a loser game. You want expensive riders that will score no points. Rider with one point can only lose one point.

You goal is to find a rider who will lose all his points. Somebody who will go from 500 to ZERO
 
fauniera said:
Thanks for doing this again, it sure is a lot of work. I plan to take part again (if i find the time), this time without my retired riders. ;)




To be clear: a rider who has a contract for 2015 but scored zero points 2014 is not eligible?
Correct: your target to find 15 point losers, not 10 riders in decline and 5 neutrals. Last year's craftiness and creativity is out :D
Is one point enough or do it have to be at least two?
One is enough: it at least identifies a rider. I had considered an arbitrary minimum, but needing to decide the level to choose, and the very arbitrariness of it, put me off.

Arbitrariness will however, remain key in the emerging riders game cut-off. :p
 
A bump to the thread, as there are about 2 days to go (closing time is the start of Stage 1 of the Tour Down Under: not sure exactly what that hour is, but it is Sunday morning in Australia)

13 teams so far, 126 riders selected, including 88 unique picks.
 
Aug 28, 2011
95
0
0
Armchair cyclist said:
A bump to the thread, as there are about 2 days to go (closing time is the start of Stage 1 of the Tour Down Under: not sure exactly what that hour is, but it is Sunday morning in Australia)

13 teams so far, 126 riders selected, including 88 unique picks.
10:30 in Adelaide will be 1:00 CET
 
Jan 1, 2014
103
0
0
fauniera said:
Tour Down Under starts on Tuesday, doesn't it? Tour de San Luis starts on Monday. I had hoped to build my team this Sunday.
I thought the same... The People Choice Classic does not count for Cq Points so why not put deadline Sunday night?
 
fauniera said:
Tour Down Under starts on Tuesday, doesn't it? Tour de San Luis starts on Monday. I had hoped to build my team this Sunday.
My mistake: I glanced quickly at the front page of CN, where it simply says Santos Tour Down Under January 18-25, so I thought it started on the 18th. Midnight Monday-Tuesday it is.

the sceptic said:
just to clarify, 0 pointers aren't allowed?
They can't decline, so they are not valid attempts to pick riders who are going to score fewer points than last year. No zero pointers, and no-one without a contract (Conti or higher) for this season. And one more rule, which essentially means no-one called Cadel Evans.
 
A bit disappointing to only have 19 teams, but some interesting selections:


Akuryo
BASSO Ivan
BURGHARDT Marcus
GADRET John
GATTO Oscar
GAVAZZI Francesco
HESJEDAL Ryder
KOLOBNEV Alexandr
PERAUD Jean-Christophe
POZZATO Filippo
SCARPONI Michele
TEN DAM Laurens
VENTOSO ALBERDI Francisco Jose
VISCONTI Giovanni
VOECKLER Thomas
WEENING Pieter


Al Pacino
CRAVEN Dan
CURVERS Roy
ERVITI OLLO Imanol
GERRANS Simon
HENDERSON Gregory
KONOVALOVAS Ignatas
PATE Danny
PERAUD Jean-Christophe
PETROV Evgeni
RAST Gregory
REYNES MIMO Vicente
TOSATTO Matteo
VANENDERT Jelle
VICIOSO ARCOS Angel
ZAUGG Oliver


Alykaptan
BUTS Vitaliy
DUEÑAS NEVADO Moises
FAJT Kristjan
GRADEK Kamil
HABEAUX Grégory
JANSE VAN RENSBURG Jacques
KONONENKO Mykhaylo
LEOPOLD Hans-Jörg
PERAUD Jean-Christophe
POURSEYEDI GOLAKHOUR Mirsamad
SHPILEVSKY Boris
TACIAK Mateusz
TLEUBAYEV Ruslan
WIGGINS Bradley
WITMITZ Sam


ArmchairCyclist

DANIELSON Tom
DEVOLDER Stijn
HAYMAN Mathew
HOUSE Kristian
HUZARSKI Bartosz
MANCEBO PEREZ Francisco
MOUREY Francis
NOCENTINI Rinaldo
PERAUD Jean-Christophe
PETROV Evgeni
REBELLIN Davide
TJALLINGII Maarten
TUFT Svein
WIGGINS Bradley
ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar


Del1962

BIBBY Ian
CARTHY Hugh
CUMMINGS Stephen
FLENS Rick
FRATTINI Davide
GERRANS Simon
HOUSE Kristian
MORABITO Steve
OLIPHANT Evan
PATE Danny
PERAUD Jean-Christophe
ROUTLEY Will
SCULLY Tom
VELITS Martin
WIGGINS Bradley


Derrudi
BAK Lars Ytting
BENNATI Daniele
bozic borut
chicchi francesco
CUMMINGS Stephen
dumoulin samuel
eisel bernhard
GERRANS Simon
hansen adam
KOLOBNEV Alexandr
MOURIS Jens
PINEAU Jérôme
RAST Gregory #
STEEGMANS Gert
VOECKLER Thomas


DJSprtsch
CHAVANEL Sylvain
FRATTINI Davide
GADRET John
GERRANS Simon
HENDERSON Gregory
JONES Christopher
LASTRAS GARCIA Pablo
MIZBANI IRANAGH Ghader
PELLIZOTTI Franco
ROGINA Radoslav
ROMERO AMARAN Luis Alberto
SEVILLA RIBERA Oscar
SOUSA Rui Miguel Barbosa
TVETCOV Serghei
ZANDIO ECHAIDE Xabier


Fauniera
BRITTON Rob
DRUCKER Jempy
FONT ORONOZ Agustin Franco
FRATTINI Davide
GARNERO Antonio Fernando Prestes
GERRANS Simon
INOUE Kazuo
JAHANBANIAN Hossein
MENZIES Karl
MÜLLER Andreas
PERAUD Jean-Christophe
RETSCHKE Robert
VAN ASBROECK Tom
WILLIAMS Marc
ZWIZANSKI Scott


Flo
BOLE Grega
DEVOLDER Stijn
DUARTE AREVALO Fabio Andres
ELMIGER Martin
FINETTO Mauro
GAIMON Phillip
HENDERSON Gregory
HESJEDAL Ryder
KIRYIENKA Vasil
POELS Wout
PONZI Simone
SBARAGLI Kristian
SCARPONI Michele
TAARAMÄE Rein
TIRALONGO Paolo


Geraint Too Fast
BAZZANA Alessandro
BOLIVAR HERNANDEZ Isaac
CARTHY Hugh
CHALAPUD GOMEZ Robinson Eduardo
FEDI Andrea
GAIMON Phillip
GALVIZ GARCIA Carlos Johan
GERRANS Simon
JONES Carter
MARCOTTE Eric
PHINNEY Taylor
ROSSKOPF Joey
TIRALONGO Paolo
WIGGINS Bradley
ZAKARIN Ilnur


JeroenK

BORGERSEN Reidar Bohlin
CARDOSO Andre Fernando Santos Martins
CUMMINGS Stephen
GRADEK Kamil
KOREN Kristjan
LAGUTIN Sergey
LASTRAS GARCIA Pablo
LEUKEMANS Björn
LOSADA ALGUACIL Alberto
MORI Manuele
NAPOLITANO Danilo
REBELLIN Davide
ROGINA Radoslav
TANKINK Bram
ZAKARIN Ilnur


Joelsim
BASSO Ivan
CIOLEK Gerald
CUMMINGS Stephen
DANIELSON Tom
DEIGNAN Philip
KING Edward
PERAUD Jean-Christophe
POPOVYCH Yaroslav
ROVNY Ivan
SCARPONI Michele
VAN POPPEL Boy
VENTOSO ALBERDI Francisco Jose
VOECKLER Thomas
WIGGINS Bradley
ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar


Josedin
ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor
BASSO Ivan
CANCELLARA Fabian
DUMOULIN Samuel
ELMIGER Martin
GADRET John
GERDEMANN Linus
KREUZIGER Roman
LEUKEMANS Björn
LOPEZ GARCIA David
PELLIZOTTI Franco
POZZATO Filippo
VOECKLER Thomas
WEENING Pieter
WEGMANN Fabian


Leadbelly
ANTOMARCHI Julien
BELDA GARCIA David
BORGERSEN Reidar Bohlin
GRADEK Kamil
HENDERSON Gregory
KOREN Kristjan
MIZBANI IRANAGH Ghader
PHINNEY Taylor
POLIVODA Oleksandr
SBARAGLI Kristian
VAN GENECHTEN Jonas
VAUBOURZEIX Thomas
WIGGINS Bradley
WITMITZ Sam
ZAUGG Oliver


Lenissart
CESAR VELOSO Gustavo
GERRANS Simon
GONÇALVES Jose Isidro Maciel
JONES Christopher
KIENDYS Tomasz #
KOREN Kristjan
MIZBANI IRANAGH Ghader
PATE Danny
SOUSA Rui Miguel Barbosa
STEEGMANS Gert
TANKINK Bram
TOSATTO Matteo
TUFT Svein
WIGGINS Bradley
WITMITZ Sam


Rote Laterne

BRIGGS Graham
CRAVEN Dan
CRAWFORD David Jai
DANIELSON Tom
FENG Chun Kai
FINETTO Mauro
GERRANS Simon
HORNER Chris
KNEES Christian
PATE Danny
PELLIZOTTI Franco
PETACCHI Alessandro
REBELLIN Davide
SULZBERGER Wesley
VEIKKANEN Jussi


Shalgo
CUMMINGS Stephen
FAJT Kristjan
GERRANS Simon
GUSEV Vladimir
HORNER Chris
JONES Christopher
PETROV Evgeni
REBELLIN Davide
ROTH Ryan
SIEBERG Marcel
STEEGMANS Gert
TANKINK Bram
TUFT Svein
VEUCHELEN Frederik
ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar


Skidmark
BAGDONAS Gediminas
BELDA GARCIA David
BORGERSEN Reidar Bohlin
BUSATO Matteo
DEGAND Thomas
DRUCKER Jempy
GERRANS Simon
HERNANDEZ BLAZQUEZ Jesus
LASTRAS GARCIA Pablo
MARCOTTE Eric
POPOVYCH Yaroslav
TIRALONGO Paolo
VEIKKANEN Jussi
WIGGINS Bradley
WITMITZ Sam


The Sceptic
BELDA GARCIA David
FANKHAUSER Clemens
GALEDO Mark
GEBAUER Tim
GERRANS Simon
HAYAKAWA Tomohiro
KISERLOVSKI Emanuel
KUREK Adrian
LIU Shu Ming
MEGIAS LEAL Javier
PERAUD Jean-Christophe
UCHIMA Kouhei
VIGANO Davide
WIGGINS Bradley
YEUNG Ying Hon


#: Riders in over budget teams who cannot score to the benefit of the team, but who will penalise the team should they exceed their 2014 score
 
175 riders chosen: 119 unique picks. There were a few popular picks, all with plenty of points to lose (and therefore expensive picks) The great variety between the teams comes with the cheap makeweights in the team: if they didn't have many points, there can't be much expectation of agreement that they will lose many.

Frequency of picks (brackets show number of picks in the main game)
11: Gerrans
9: Wiggins
8: Peraud
5: Cummings (1)
4: VOECKLER Thomas (16), HENDERSON Gregory, PATE Danny, REBELLIN Davide, WITMITZ Sam

3: BASSO Ivan (15), STEEGMANS Gert (2), GADRET John (1), BELDA GARCIA David, BORGERSEN Reidar Bohlin, DANIELSON Tom, FRATTINI Davide, GRADEK Kamil, JONES Christopher, KOREN Kristjan, LASTRAS GARCIA Pablo, MIZBANI IRANAGH Ghader, PELLIZOTTI Franco, PETROV Evgeni, SCARPONI Michele, TANKINK Bram, TIRALONGO Paolo, TUFT Svein, ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar

2: PHINNEY Taylor (30), POZZATO Filippo (23), WEENING Pieter (5), CARTHY Hugh (3), HORNER Chris (2), ELMIGER Martin (1), SBARAGLI Kristian (1), VEIKKANEN Jussi (1), CRAVEN Dan, DEVOLDER Stijn, DRUCKER Jempy, dumoulin samuel, FAJT Kristjan, FINETTO Mauro, GAIMON Phillip, HESJEDAL Ryder, HOUSE Kristian, KOLOBNEV Alexandr, LEUKEMANS Björn, MARCOTTE Eric, POPOVYCH Yaroslav, RAST Gregory, ROGINA Radoslav, SOUSA Rui Miguel Barbosa, TOSATTO Matteo, VENTOSO ALBERDI Francisco Jose, ZAKARIN Ilnur, ZAUGG Oliver

Unique picks (picks in main game only noted where there are 3 or more main game picks):
Akuryo: BURGHARDT Marcus, GATTO Oscar (20), GAVAZZI Francesco, TEN DAM Laurens, VISCONTI Giovanni (15)
AlPacino: CURVERS Roy, ERVITI OLLO Imanol, KONOVALOVAS Ignatas, REYNES MIMO Vicente, VANENDERT Jelle, VICIOSO ARCOS Angel
Alykaptan:BUTS Vitaliy, DUEÑAS NEVADO Moises, HABEAUX Grégory, JANSE VAN RENSBURG Jacques, KONONENKO Mykhaylo, LEOPOLD Hans-Jörg, POURSEYEDI GOLAKHOUR Mirsamad, SHPILEVSKY Boris, TACIAK Mateusz, TLEUBAYEV Ruslan
Armchair Cyclist: HAYMAN Mathew (3), HUZARSKI Bartosz, MANCEBO PEREZ Francisco (3), MOUREY Francis, NOCENTINI Rinaldo, TJALLINGII Maarten
Del1962:BIBBY Ian, FLENS Rick, MORABITO Steve, OLIPHANT Evan, ROUTLEY Will, SCULLY Tom, VELITS Martin (3)
Derrudi: BAK Lars Ytting, BENNATI Daniele, bozic borut, chicchi francesco, eisel bernhard, hansen adam, MOURIS Jens, PINEAU Jérôme
DJSprtsch: CHAVANEL Sylvain, ROMERO AMARAN Luis Alberto, SEVILLA RIBERA Oscar, TVETCOV Serghei (4), ZANDIO ECHAIDE Xabier
Fauniera: BRITTON Rob, FONT ORONOZ Agustin Franco, GARNERO Antonio Fernando Prestes, INOUE Kazuo, JAHANBANIAN Hossein, MENZIES Karl, MÜLLER Andreas, RETSCHKE Robert, VAN ASBROECK Tom, WILLIAMS Marc, ZWIZANSKI Scott
Flo: BOLE Grega, DUARTE AREVALO Fabio Andres, KIRYIENKA Vasil, POELS Wout, PONZI Simone, TAARAMÄE Rein
Geraint Too Fast: BAZZANA Alessandro, BOLIVAR HERNANDEZ Isaac, CHALAPUD GOMEZ Robinson Eduardo, FEDI Andrea, GALVIZ GARCIA Carlos Johan, JONES Carter, ROSSKOPF Joey
JeroenK: CARDOSO Andre Fernando Santos Martins, LAGUTIN Sergey, LOSADA ALGUACIL Alberto, MORI Manuele, NAPOLITANO Danilo
Joelsim: CIOLEK Gerald, DEIGNAN Philip, KING Edward, ROVNY Ivan, VAN POPPEL Boy (3)
Josedin: ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor, CANCELLARA Fabian, GERDEMANN Linus, KREUZIGER Roman, LOPEZ GARCIA David, WEGMANN Fabian
Leadbelly: ANTOMARCHI Julien, POLIVODA Oleksandr, VAN GENECHTEN Jonas, VAUBOURZEIX Thomas
Lenissart: CESAR VELOSO Gustavo, GONÇALVES Jose Isidro Maciel, KIENDYS Tomasz
Rote Laterne: BRIGGS Graham, CRAWFORD David Jai, FENG Chun Kai, KNEES Christian, PETACCHI Alessandro, SULZBERGER Wesley
Shalgo: GUSEV Vladimir, ROTH Ryan, SIEBERG Marcel, VEUCHELEN Frederik
Skidmark: BAGDONAS Gediminas, BUSATO Matteo, DEGAND Thomas, HERNANDEZ BLAZQUEZ Jesus
The Sceptic: FANKHAUSER Clemens, GALEDO Mark, GEBAUER Tim, HAYAKAWA Tomohiro, KISERLOVSKI Emanuel, KUREK Adrian, LIU Shu Ming, MEGIAS LEAL Javier, UCHIMA Kouhei, VIGANO Davide, YEUNG Ying Hon


I have probably been the first to uncover a fail, as Mancebo has already got about half of his 2014 points...


Popularity of picks scores:
1 Lenissart 53
2 Del1962 51
3 Skidmark 48
4 Joelsim 47
5 Shalgo 46
6 AlPacino 44
7 ArmchairCyclist 43
8 DJSprtsch 42
8 Leadbelly 42
8 TheSceptic 42
11 GeraintTooFast 40
12 RoteLaterne 39
13 Derrudi 37
14 Alykaptan 36
14 Akuryo 36
16 Fauniera 35
16 JeroenK 35
18 Josedin 29
19 Flo 28
 
Armchair cyclist said:
Popularity of picks scores:
1 Lenissart 53
2 Del1962 51
3 Skidmark 48
4 Joelsim 47
5 Shalgo 46
6 AlPacino 44
7 ArmchairCyclist 43
8 DJSprtsch 42
8 Leadbelly 42
8 TheSceptic 42
11 GeraintTooFast 40
12 RoteLaterne 39
13 Derrudi 37
14 Alykaptan 36
14 Akuryo 36
16 Fauniera 35
16 JeroenK 35
18 Josedin 29
19 Flo 28
Why am I always so unpopular :mad: :(
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY

Latest posts