Cavendish to win Milan San Remo?

[karlboss]

Olympics too, he showed he lacks stamina.

Nah, that was over excitement, he smashed the first up hill and didn't leave enough in the tank.

 

[maltiv]

Not to dissapoint you, but if all Contador's "lack of stamina" leads to is finishing second and losing no time (actually gaining time on almost all his rivals) on the hardest stage of the tour, then I don't really see that as a major weakness

 

[issoisso]

Depending on your perspective did you just agree? Seems blackcat were saying Astana should soft pedal and you say that will play into Contadors hands...

That would play into Contador's hands, but I got the impression he said Saxo Bank should soft pedal and let the peloton get to the final climb intact.

I agree with most of what you say, I don't think contador had any trouble with the schlecks, I think he was hoping Kloden would get back on...or am i thinking about the wrong stage. Having said, last years tour ITT is the longest i can think of where he has performed, I would say i long flat TT would be his weakness.

About a year ago I posted on another forum a long post analyzing time checks to show the more kms into a long TT, the slower he goes. He starts really fast, but fades progressively. By the end of 50+km TTs he's going slower than Sastre.

Someone copied that post onto this forum later, so it should be somewhere if someone can be bothered to dig for it.

Be interesting to see what happens if a team drives hard all day. I say you've got to gamble something to beat him, so why not??

2008 Giro. Queen stage. 5 Climbs. Everyone went hard from the first climb. By the top of the third climb, the Passo Giau, the lead group had 10 riders and Contador was out the back along with such "big names" as Vandenbroeck.

Unfortunately, they eased up, let him get back on during the descent, and soft pedalled till halfway up the last climb.

By the end of the stage he had the jersey. Without that he wouldn't have had the motivation and wouldn't have won the Giro (not to mention he would've lost a lot of time)

 

[sublimit]

While Cavendish definitely was very, very, VERY quick at MSR last year, Sporza (Belgian TV station) used good ol' Pythagoras to calculate that Heinrich would've won if he hadn't strayed from his line seventeen thousand (or three) times.

if you look at the footage you will notice that Cavendish moves almost as much trying to get the slipstream.. and Its a bit unrealistic to expect to ride in a dead straight line at the end of a tough race and going full bore, this isnt 4K pursuit on the track.

Haussler is a strong rider and he distanced everybody else, but Cavs speed and technique was enough to win even after being surprised by the attack -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1OngdmB2iw