Contador 2010

[Publicus]

Didn't Mayo abandon, or am I confusing stages?

Mayo crashed on Stage 3 and Armstrong attacked/pressed his advantage. I suspect he is hoping that history repeats itself.

 

[Angliru]

Maybe. But as you said, it will be one of the deepest fields in recent memory. Someone else is going to run it down too. The goal isn't to beat AC, it's to win the race.

I just don't see Nibali or Basso going up the road and NO ONE covering their attacks. Same with the Schlecks. Zubeldia? Probably. Vino. They'll let him go too. Frankly I think the depth of the field plays to AC's and Astana's advantage--as long as they don't get yellow too early. That will be the key.

My sentiments exactly. With such a potentially deep field of contenders it will not be Astana's sole responsibility to chase down every threatening break. In reality depending on who is in yellow the responsibility will befall that rider's team. While his team will not have the star power of Astana of 2009, it will be one team united behind one rider with a strategy set to optimize Contador's ultimate success, not that of a 38 year old chasing past glory. Vino, Pereiro and Tiralongo should be sufficient support in the mountains.

My only concern is the stage through the cobbles. There will be a chaotic rush by the all the teams to gain optimum position leading into that sector. Narrow roads with 200 riders early in the most important event on the professional calender translates into a very high liklihood of trouble for some unfortunate riders. There will be casualties and the Tour could be lost at this point.

Also it's foolish to believe that now that Contador is free from the shackles of Bruyneel and Armstrong's stifling tactics, that he will now be attacking relentlessly. Its safe to say that he's matured and will likely pick his spots to gain time. He's a lot more intelligent than some give him credit for. His measured, calculated effort in the 2008 Giro should be proof enough.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

That's right. He crashed in the cobbles. I'm thinking late in the race when he dropped out; I think it was stage 13.

 

[Publicus]

My only concern is the stage through the cobbles. There will be a chaotic rush by the all the teams to gain optimum position leading into that sector. Narrow roads with 200 riders early in the most important event on the professional calender translates into a very high liklihood of trouble for some unfortunate riders. There will be casualties and the Tour could be lost at this point.

I suspect this is AC's primary concern as well. He's talked about training on the cobbles (but not risking racing on them). I'm curious what the TEAM is going to do to prepare for them. That's really the key to not losing or minimizing the loss of time. Thirteen kilometers of cobbles is a lot (especially when you consider there were only 4 KM of cobbles in 2004).

 

[Angliru]

Didn't Mayo abandon, or am I confusing stages?

Mayo abandoned several stages later if memory serves me correctly and actually he crashed in the mad rush leading up to the cobbles, not on the cobbles themselves.

Armstrong supposedly had a dislike for Mayo, likely because Mayo was an attacking rider, one that was relatively unpredictable and a bit dangerous because of his climbing talent. Armstrong's competition in that era generally went along with the Postal/Discovery program with the exception of Vino, Mayo and Pantani. Everyone else was just happy riding along with the big blue train and take whatever scraps were left. Ullrich's attacks were few and far between and his only hopes of gaining time were in the TTT's and ITT.
No wonder that he (Armstrong) had disdain for Pantani ("Little sh!t starter!"), Mayo and now Contador.

 

[flicker]

Contador barring disabaling crash(es) wins well in control. Contador is intelligent and is quite a bit stronger in what it takes to win tour.

He is allied with the Spainish/Basque teams. Always the strongest climbers.
Astana boys and Saxobank will protect him on the flats.

Andy is racing for 2nd again.

With the worst of dirty deeds Johann and his hencmen don't have the right stuff to touch Contador.

 

[US Patent Exploding Cyclist]

My only concern is the stage through the cobbles. There will be a chaotic rush by the all the teams to gain optimum position leading into that sector. Narrow roads with 200 riders early in the most important event on the professional calender translates into a very high liklihood of trouble for some unfortunate riders. There will be casualties and the Tour could be lost at this point.

Might we see half the field on the ground if there are poor conditions, like the Vuelta this year?

 

[auscyclefan94]

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." So yeah, I guess he was lucky over the last 3 years.

So how do you prepare for an unfortunate crash?

 

[Winterfold]

Mentally stronger than in any previous GT he's entered, maybe Astana are not as strong as last year, but the bit of Astana that will be working for Contador is much stronger, by a gazillion miles the best climbing AND TTing technique of any rider on the planet. He will choose how much he wins by, I am certain.

JB is in the car, to beat him you have to be on the road.

 

[Publicus]

So how do you prepare for an unfortunate crash?

By not paying attention. Or your equipment is not at it's best. Or you are suffering at the back of the pack because your physical stamina isn't at its top.

"Luck is where preparation (or lack thereof) meets opportunity."

 

[Anonymous]

Well, I didn't mean to imply that exploiting a gap is dishonorable. I meant more that exploiting a mishap would be.

We saw instances in past Tours where Ulrich waited for Armstrong and vice versa when crashes occurred. If Contador crashes... I don't see RS waiting. The schlecks might... cadel might... but not Lance. I think of AC goes down in any situation where pushing the pace might cause him trouble... RS will push the pace. Same goes if he has a flat at an inoportune time, or if he gets caught behind a crash that splits the pelaton.

In past years, it looked like GC guys wouldn't take advantage of situations like this unless they happened after the "real race" was on late in a stage (such as Cadel's flat in the Vuelta). I don't expect that sort of sportsmanship from RS... not in regards to Contador (though I wouldn't expect the same behavior with Andy or any of the other GC guys).

I think if it's a direct crash, then everyone will wait. If there is a split in the peleton and then AC crashes, no need to wait if he's already missed the split (say on the cobbles, this is a possibility - no waiting on the cobbles if a gap of more than one metre opens up before a crash)

I will say this tho. If Valverde, Basso or Gesink get a flat near the top of a climb I will certainly hope Cadel gets on the front of the group or tells Hincapie to get on the front and absolutely hammer down the mountainside taking all other favourites with him but leaving Piti, Basso or Gesink as payback to those dogs..

Personally, I think if its down to a group of favourites (say 10-15 rides) and someone in the top 5 on GC flats or crashes, then sportsmanship says you wait, except for the guys in the Vuelta incident - they've already lost their chance of someone waiting for them.

 

[Anonymous]

So how do you prepare for an unfortunate crash?

stay up the front. stay awake.

i kind of agree, if someone goes down in front of you, there's not a lot you could of done, BUT, you do make your own luck.

you've gotta read the peleton, and some riders seem to have a knack of doing this. interesting that AC has stayed upright since he started winning GTs, but I think this is more of a focus thing. He's always upfront and aware of trouble.

Like Lance in his hey day, Lance very very rarely crashed. Ironically, he crashed this year in Spain - interestingly, he was a lot more of a focused rider from 1999-2005, but in 2009 he has been a little bit more relaxed. Possible in Spain, he lost his old steel like focus and surprise surprise he breaks his first ever collarbone.

You can't be complacent in the peleton. Stay upfront, out of trouble and probabilities say you'll have a much less likely chance of crashing. Also, you gotta ride near your teammates. Who do you think you trust more - a teammate riding in front of you, on your left and on your right, OR, some other rider who doesn't give a rats tossbag about GC?

 

[auscyclefan94]

By not paying attention. Or your equipment is not at it's best. Or you are suffering at the back of the pack because your physical stamina isn't at its top.

"Luck is where preparation (or lack thereof) meets opportunity."

stay up the front. stay awake.

i kind of agree, if someone goes down in front of you, there's not a lot you could of done, BUT, you do make your own luck.

you've gotta read the peleton, and some riders seem to have a knack of doing this. interesting that AC has stayed upright since he started winning GTs, but I think this is more of a focus thing. He's always upfront and aware of trouble.

Like Lance in his hey day, Lance very very rarely crashed. Ironically, he crashed this year in Spain - interestingly, he was a lot more of a focused rider from 1999-2005, but in 2009 he has been a little bit more relaxed. Possible in Spain, he lost his old steel like focus and surprise surprise he breaks his first ever collarbone.

You can't be complacent in the peleton. Stay upfront, out of trouble and probabilities say you'll have a much less likely chance of crashing. Also, you gotta ride near your teammates. Who do you think you trust more - a teammate riding in front of you, on your left and on your right, OR, some other rider who doesn't give a rats tossbag about GC?

You can't always control the things like crashes and mechanicals as they can be controlled by the environement, road conditions, the mechanic making a mistake and you making a mistake. It's not possible to have 100% concentration during the whole race. Even the best mechanics in the world are going to make mistakes. Their are many uncontrollables.

 

[palmerq]

Well I think if contador was only doing well because of drugs then he´s still on a good team, the italian guy was in charge for simoni, pantani and cunegos giro wins and of course Vinokourov is there too.... So doping won´t be a problem :S If it wasnt drugs then contador is still on a good team, he has the italian guy who was in charge for simoni pantani and cunegos giro wins :S So management shouldn´t be a problem for him, I think astana isn´t run by idiots even though it looks it sometimes..

I think vinokourov willl not be any threat to contador in the tour, maybe at the start of the season he´ll think he can do something but he´s doing the giro and this will remove any doubt from anyone that vino has no chance in grand tour anymore... First mountain he´ll lose big time.

I think astana have set up a good team for the tour they seem to have a few experienced guys and de la fuente and perrerio will do good in the mountains, maybe he could do with another climber but I doubt they will get anyone better than they have and once the big mountains start no one will have many team mates maybe only schleck ... perrerio is good he is just not some guy who got lucky one year he´s been in the top 10 of the tdf a few times... So i think for the tour contador is in a good position..

I would like him to do more races next year though, but it hink he´s going to focus on the tour every year now, bit of a shame..

 

[Frosty]

As far as waiting after crashes goes, i dont remember Armstrong waiting after the crash on the Passage du Gois in the tour in 1999.

 

[Tangled Tango]

Anyone see any struggles from Contador leaving the Bruyneel camp? Astana's GC team is a bit of a mess and would be in the ranks of the lower French teams if they didn't have Contador pinned down. Bruyneel has only been beaten at the Tour once in the last 10 years. Also Bruyneel knows Contador's inside out and might be the only DS that can beat him.

Can we please try to keep this out of the clinic.

I aggree with a few others here that AC´s biggest concern is the first week or so of the race and the cobbles in particular. AC mentioned recently that those stages will be the most difficult for him. My concern is not him losing time in the cobbles which I expect will happen, but the potential bullying tactics that RS may use on the cobbles and the possibility of a bad crash there. There are always crashes in the Tour´s first week, but 2010 looks like it could offer up an increase in those crashes with the addition of the cobbles and that is where AC will be most vunerable and LA knows that and will try and capitalize. Hopefully AC will have enough protection from his team to stay out of trouble, but it will be dicey. If he makes it through and into the mtns, AC will take all the time back and more.

 

[Rex Hunter]

I aggree with a few others here that AC´s biggest concern is the first week or so of the race and the cobbles in particular. AC mentioned recently that those stages will be the most difficult for him. My concern is not him losing time in the cobbles which I expect will happen, but the potential bullying tactics that RS may use on the cobbles and the possibility of a bad crash there. There are always crashes in the Tour´s first week, but 2010 looks like it could offer up an increase in those crashes with the addition of the cobbles and that is where AC will be most vunerable and LA knows that and will try and capitalize. Hopefully AC will have enough protection from his team to stay out of trouble, but it will be dicey. If he makes it through and into the mtns, AC will take all the time back and more.

The thinking that AC will struggle on the cobbles will probably turn out to be false. He has already proven he can be the best under nearly all circumstances - I doubt he will suddenly lose all of his power because of some bumps in the road. Crashes can happen to anyone so I don't see why he would be any more at risk of that. It's down to luck on the cobbles.

 

[Publicus]

You can't always control the things like crashes and mechanicals as they can be controlled by the environement, road conditions, the mechanic making a mistake and you making a mistake. It's not possible to have 100% concentration during the whole race. Even the best mechanics in the world are going to make mistakes. Their are many uncontrollables.

This is all true. But if you aren't concentrating at the right time, then when the situation arises you aren't prepared for the eventuality. Think about the wind splits (Stage 3 TdF; forget the stage on at Paris-Nice this year). Contador was caught out because he wasn't attentive when Columbia/Rabobank dropped the hammer during the cross winds. Obviously he can't control whether the person in front of him is paying attention, but he can make sure his team is at the front (or close by) to make sure that he's not caught out on some move.

On the whole, I agree with you that some things are simply out of your control.

 

[Angliru]

Might we see half the field on the ground if there are poor conditions, like the Vuelta this year?

It could definitely get ugly but with the narrow roads I don't think we'll see carnage like that. At least I'm hoping not. I'm not one that takes pleasure in the crashes having been in my share.

 

[Pedaaldanser]

Who knows, you could really sense the peloton's nervosity in this year's Vuelta before the cobbles, even though the cobbled section was really short.

 

[Anonymous]

I think a lot of us Contador fans will be nervous until the cobble stage is over. Alberto already said that Andrey Zeits will be key on that stage. He said that he'll practice on the pave, but the chance of a fall is too great in races. I hope that when he does practice, he'll go with teammates so they can work on positioning and things. It's only 13.2 kilometers total, but it's in seven different sectors so riders will fight for position any number of times. I expect him to be well-prepared, but like the rest of you have said, anything can happen. Should be an exciting, nerve-wracking stage to watch. I hope they start the TV coverage early that day.

Does the team in the maillot jaune get to work at the front like a normal stage?

 

[Angliru]

I will say this tho. If Valverde, Basso or Gesink get a flat near the top of a climb I will certainly hope Cadel gets on the front of the group or tells Hincapie to get on the front and absolutely hammer down the mountainside taking all other favourites with him but leaving Piti, Basso or Gesink as payback to those dogs..

I'm assuming this opinion is strongly influenced by Evans' flat and subsequent problems in getting his wheel changed, while Valverde, Basso and Gesink continued to ride on (at this year's Vuelta). You apparently didn't realize that if they had slowed their roll for Evans it would have allowed Sammie Sanchez to regain contact, because he was in the process of fighting to get back on with the elite group after getting dropped.

 

[Rex Hunter]

I think a lot of us Contador fans will be nervous until the cobble stage is over. Alberto already said that Andrey Zeits will be key on that stage. He said that he'll practice on the pave, but the chance of a fall is too great in races.

Everybody will be nervous about a crash. It's not just something for Contador fans to worry about.

It would make the tour more interesting if he did crash out though.

 

[Angliru]

It would make the tour more interesting if he did crash out though.

Why is that? Would it make it more competitive? I'm hoping everyone makes it through unscathed so that we can see them all at their best when the mountains come. For me that's where the fun begins. Let the chips fall where they may. I wouldn't wish a crash on anyone.

 

[peloton]

Why is that? Would it make it more competitive? I'm hoping everyone makes it through unscathed so that we can see them all at their best when the mountains come. For me that's where the fun begins. Let the chips fall where they may. I wouldn't wish a crash on anyone.

+1

wishing someone to crash out of any race is truly idiotic.