Contadors Tour absence

[Eric8-A]

In an article on the website today, Jurgen Van Den Broeck said that Bjarne Riis was interested in him as a Plan B for the Tour. Jurgen also went on to say that if Contador was not present at the Tour, it would leave the door open to the men who were in the top 10 last year for the overall victory.

Aside from Contador, I would say Andy is the most dominate in the TdF. If Alberto does not start the Tour this year, who will be Andy's biggest threat and how will that person stand up to him in the mountains? Do you think Contador will or will not be riding the Tour this year? And back to Jurgen, who from last years top 10 looks good to be on the top step of the podium in 2011?

 

[boardhanger]

I'd love to see the Schleck brothers go at it Cain & Able style. Then for Basso to take advantage of the in fighting.....

 

[hrotha]

Well, assuming Contador doesn't ride, it should go something like this:

Andy
____

Menchov (if he rides)
Basso
Samu
____

Everyone else: Gesink (who could be promoted to the upper echelon depending on how much he progresses during the early half of the season), Evans, Van den Broeck, Vino, Riccò, whatever.

So anyone from the "everyone else" group (including Van den Broeck) could conceivably end up on the podium.

 

[Ferminal]

In an article on the website today, Jurgen Van Den Broeck said that Bjarne Riis was interested in him as a Plan B for the Tour. Jurgen also went on to say that if Contador was not present at the Tour, it would leave the door open to the men who were in the top 10 last year for the overall victory.

Aside from Contador, I would say Andy is the most dominate in the TdF. If Alberto does not start the Tour this year, who will be Andy's biggest threat and how will that person stand up to him in the mountains? Do you think Contador will or will not be riding the Tour this year? And back to Jurgen, who from last years top 10 looks good to be on the top step of the podium in 2011?

Sanchez, Basso, Evans, Menchov (these 4 will take the two remaining podium spots). Of course none are a real threat to Andy in the mountains, so he would have to have a very bad TT and lose some random time elsewhere to really be at risk of not winning the GC.

Gesink will be a much different prospect riding for himself.

Obviously Rodriguez will be up there too on the mountain stages (possibly the only one who could match Andy).

I'm not sure JVdB and Hesjedal are in that group consistently, but if last year's Tour is anything to go by the these dozen or so riders will not have huge gaps between them.

Then there's Klöden, Vandevelde, Leipheimer (well not really, Bottle is past it ) and Vino who you really don't know where they will be.

 

[The Hitch]

This is a blatant f you to Andy Schleck from Bjarne.

Andy Schleck is the clear clear favourite.

If he were to mess up somehowe i see it as between Basso, Samu and maybe Cuddles, with Menchov close behind.

Id hope for Samu but if Basso can recreate 06 form he would be favourite.

I did a poll 3 months ago (if Contador and Andrew dont ride, who wins) and Basso came top easily, followed by Menchov and then Cadel and even Gesink before Sanchez, but people dont know what they are talking about

 

[hrotha]

Basso's 06 form is locked in some abandoned basement somewhere in Spain, if it wasn't flushed down the toilet long ago. But a 10 Basso should be a contender.

 

[Ferminal]

In order I would probably have it something like this:

Sanchez
(Rodriguez)
Basso
Menchov
Gesink/Evans
JVdB

I don't think there's anyone outside them really worth discussing. That's purely on climbing (hence Purito in brackets!), so its open to change with the ITT/TTT and maybe some of the punchier finishes.

For a podium sans-Andy it's just too hard, I would have Sanchez as the winner but those next three Basso/Menchov/Evans all very close.

So many things can happen between now and July though with form, overracing etc, and we don't even know if Menchov will be there.

 

[The Hitch]

Sanchez
(Rodriguez)
Basso
Menchov
Gesink/Evans
JVdB



For a podium sans-Andy it's just too hard, I would have Sanchez as the winner but those next three Basso/Menchov/Evans all very close.

Good to see im not the only one hyping Sammy Sanchez.

According to the poll, other cnf experts voting Asturias are

Apollo, flatclimb, Frank71, Gotland, Karbonkel, Moondance, nobilis, nvpacchi, Sophistic, who dat

Maybe we can add one of Mellow Velo or Libertine Seguros to this. LS usualy goes for the Spanish guy, especially if hes on a Basque team, though its posible hell overdo it and tip Amets Txurruka for the win instead

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

...Andy Schleck is the clear clear favourite.

If he were to mess up somehowe i see it as between Basso, Samu and maybe Cuddles, with Menchov close behind.

Id hope for Samu but if Basso can recreate 06 form he would be favourite.

I did a poll 3 months ago (if Contador and Andrew dont ride, who wins) and Basso came top easily, followed by Menchov and then Cadel and even Gesink before Sanchez, but people dont know what they are talking about

I was just going to say for THIS Tour my sentimental favs would be:
1. Cadel
2. & 3. Basso or Samu
4. Andy
Cadel's my clear fav, with Basso and Samu about equal, and Andy a bit lower.

 

[Eric8-A]

Lance said last year would be his last Tour. This year, I'm sure Levi, Klodi, Horner and Janez will be riding.

If all goes good, this means no injuries, no mechanicals and is on top form 100%, how do you think Kloden will do?

 

[erader]

kloden is past his prime and not a leader. never has been.

erader

 

[Ferminal]

Yeh, even if he showed up with the "complete package" I do think he's no longer at his prime. But you just never know with Klodi, people would have easily written him off after an unremarkable Giro/Vuelta in 2008, but then he came to the 2009 TdF and at times showed he was the next strongest after Bertie/Schleck.

 

[Eric8-A]

And also, he has podiumed twice. But I do agree with him probably being past his time due to age.

But, he rode for someone in 2009 and 2010.

 

[jaylew]

Good to see im not the only one hyping Sammy Sanchez.

According to the poll, other cnf experts voting Asturias are

Apollo, flatclimb, Frank71, Gotland, Karbonkel, Moondance, nobilis, nvpacchi, Sophistic, who dat

Maybe we can add one of Mellow Velo or Libertine Seguros to this. LS usualy goes for the Spanish guy, especially if hes on a Basque team, though its posible hell overdo it and tip Amets Txurruka for the win instead

I've been a big Sammy fan for years. If I could pick anyone I wanted to win their first GT it would be him. I also really want to see Cadel win one before he retires.

 

[theswordsman]

This is a blatant f you to Andy Schleck from Bjarne.

Riis didn't say anything. He just tried to make sure he has a GC guy for the race

"If Contador isn't there, every guy who was in the top ten last year is capable of winning the Tour," the 27-year-old commented. "It's going to be strange because anything can happen. Every guy thinks this is his big chance. I don't know who will control the race – you could get a situation like in 2006, when [Oscar] Pereiro went away. It will be a lot more aggressive than last year."

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/riis-lined-up-van-den-broeck-as-contador-substitute
I expect Contador to be there. But I think the uncertainty of that while teams and riders planned their race schedules and training might make for a more competitive race. There are a lot of guys dreaming of a top spot right now, training with that in mind, and scheduling their races to peak at the right time

 

[Eric8-A]

I've been a big Sammy fan for years. If I could pick anyone I wanted to win their first GT it would be him. I also really want to see Cadel win one before he retires.

I agree. Cadel deserves a GT win

 

[Magnus]

I think Frank could podium.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

I expect Contador to be there. But I think the uncertainty of that while teams and riders planned their race schedules and training might make for a more competitive race. There are a lot of guys dreaming of a top spot right now, training with that in mind, and scheduling their races to peak at the right time

Seeing how much value gets added to a 9th place in the Tour these days, the uncertainty around Contador isn't making a difference in the planning.

But assuming Contador isn't there, it is natural to look at the guy who finished second first. I do wonder how Andy will do without the strict control Riis kept in his team. Since Andy doesn't really seem to be the kind of guy to take things really serious, except like 3 races a year. And with everyone looking at him and him alone, you never know what happens.

 

[El Pistolero]

Sanchez, Basso, Evans, Menchov (these 4 will take the two remaining podium spots). Of course none are a real threat to Andy in the mountains, so he would have to have a very bad TT and lose some random time elsewhere to really be at risk of not winning the GC.

Gesink will be a much different prospect riding for himself.

Obviously Rodriguez will be up there too on the mountain stages (possibly the only one who could match Andy).

I'm not sure JVdB and Hesjedal are in that group consistently, but if last year's Tour is anything to go by the these dozen or so riders will not have huge gaps between them.

Then there's Klöden, Vandevelde, Leipheimer (well not really, Bottle is past it ) and Vino who you really don't know where they will be.

JvdB proved he can be consistent this year. He already showed him self as a GT rider when he finished 7th in the Giro of 2008 at the age of 25. Take out Sella and he was 6th.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I was just going to say for THIS Tour my sentimental favs would be:
1. Cadel
2. & 3. Basso or Samu
4. Andy
Cadel's my clear fav, with Basso and Samu about equal, and Andy a bit lower.

Oh, if we're being sentimental, then Txurruka to win it ahead of Moncoutié (also the KOM) and Soler. And a top 10 for Casar and Fedrigo.

JvdB proved he can be consistent this year. He already showed him self as a GT rider when he finished 7th in the Giro of 2008 at the age of 25. Take out Sella and he was 6th.

Take out Riccò and he was 5th. Why single Lelle out?

 

[El Pistolero]

Oh, if we're being sentimental, then Txurruka to win it ahead of Moncoutié (also the KOM) and Soler. And a top 10 for Casar and Fedrigo.


Take out Riccò and he was 5th. Why single Lelle out?

Ok, fifth. But I don't know if they retested Ricco's samples at the Giro for Cera.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I don't recall them ever officially announcing re-testing Lelle's, he just said he'd been using it.

 

[Ferminal]

JvdB proved he can be consistent this year. He already showed him self as a GT rider when he finished 7th in the Giro of 2008 at the age of 25. Take out Sella and he was 6th.

I didn't say that, I said he may not be in the "next 5" group consistently (i.e. on every stage). That has nothing to do with consistency, rather how he handles different climbs/stages etc.

 

[Throbbobank]

I think Dutchsmurf makes a great point - it will be interesting to see how the Scehleck brother dymanic develops now that they are essentially bosses in their own team especially as I'm not convinced either Andy or Frank fundamentally believe that Andy is the best rider

I'm not expecting Frank to do an Andy and go out on the pop a la Vuelta, but, I atually thought it benefitted Andy not having Frank around at the Tour last year - the previous year he seemed to be spending a lot of time waiting for big brother and I think Frank has fundamentally conservative tactics e.g. criticising Andy for his attack on the Port de Bales (something along the lines of "if I'd been there I would have told him not to"...yes Frank, but if you'd been there Andy would have probably had to slow and wait for you several times)

I guess the question is - will the DS in the car be making the decisions or the "DS" Schleck senior on the road.......I'm not remotely suggesting that Andy will do a Wiggo but Dutchsmurf's point about expectation, what looks like a laissez faire life view (is the guy a killer?), possible lack of firm managerial control etc. could lead to some interesting issues....

On that basis, actually, no, much as I like the guy, I don't believe Andy Schleck will win the Tour this year Contador present or not....

 

[El Pistolero]

Actually as long as he has a good preparation before the Tour starts and he doesn't crash or get sick during the Tour I can't see him losing it. It will be even more boring than 2009(if Contador is not present)