Could FC Ever be a Legitimate TDF Contender?

[SpartacusRox]

Just thought I would pose this question since Fabian jokes about winning the TDF if he was 5kg lighter.

So could he be a serious contender in the same vein as Mig (big and strong I mean) in years to come?

If he could scale down enough without losing too much power so that he could at least hang in on the mountains he could be a chance?

 

[Roland Rat]

I'd say it's possible, but doubtful. Don't forget Big Mig (and for that matter Bjarne Riis) was racing in very different circumstances. If Wiggins can get a 4th, FC could probably scrape onto the podium, but winning outright would be very difficult to imagine.

 

[issoisso]

Only if the Tour reverts to the routes of the Induráin years. Tons of time trials, less climbing.

 

[blackcat]

yes

if Wigans podiums, Cancellara is 10xclassier. Mendrisio showed his transformation, now require to continue for high mtn capacity.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

I think he can when there's 200km +ITT and slightly less climbing

 

[Inner Peace]

Yes.

Same as others. Bring back the days of 2-3 decent time trials and he can make a Wigans-like physical transformation to lose a few kgs. would need at least 100km of time trialling

won't happen for a good 2 years tho after he wins the other hillier monuments and only if the ASO don't kill off the time trial

if ASO keep running Tours with this little time trialling that favours featherwieghts, why would he bother making the physical changes. he could lose 2-3 kilos tho and become a more rounded classics rider able to challenge every one day race out there

 

[theyoungest]

Just thought I would pose this question since Fabian jokes about winning the TDF if he was 5kg lighter.

So could he be a serious contender in the same vein as Mig (big and strong I mean) in years to come?

If he could scale down enough without losing too much power so that he could at least hang in on the mountains he could be a chance?

Contador lost a grand total of 15 seconds on Cancellara in the TTs of last year's Tour. I don't know how many minutes he won in the mountains, but my guess is: a lot. Cancellara has his work cut out for him.

 

[Delicato]

Yes.

Same as others. Bring back the days of 2-3 decent time trials and he can make a Wigans-like physical transformation to lose a few kgs. would need at least 100km of time trialling

won't happen for a good 2 years tho after he wins the other hillier monuments and only if the ASO don't kill off the time trial

if ASO keep running Tours with this little time trialling that favours featherwieghts, why would he bother making the physical changes. he could lose 2-3 kilos tho and become a more rounded classics rider able to challenge every one day race out there

Yeah, that's a problem. I miss 2006 edition route, with more than 100 km of TTs. great mountain stages in both Alps and Pyrenees, 2007 was nearly as good, after that it was just rubbish.

Haven't watched the Tours which Indurain won (only started watching since 1996), IMO 92 km TT is just too much.

 

[bobbins]

Possible contender, yes. Legitimate, I don't think so.

 

[SpartacusRox]

Yeah, that's a problem. I miss 2006 edition route, with more than 100 km of TTs. great mountain stages in both Alps and Pyrenees, 2007 was nearly as good, after that it was just rubbish.

Haven't watched the Tours which Indurain won (only started watching since 1996), IMO 92 km TT is just too much.

I have to agree that last years course was pretty average and the TT did suit the climbers like AC.On a flatter course FC would have smoked him. Would be interesting seeing FC riding as a protected rider after he lost a few kilos...maybe he will give it ago when has won a few more monuments.

Paris Roubaix was just a demolition. As Hayden Roulston said afterwards; "Cancellara just made us all look stupid".

 

[Moondance]

If he makes a concerted effort to convert he might be able to contend... He could top-10, maybe. But actually beat Contador or Schleck the Younger... Nah.

 

[42x16ss]

*Yawwwn* This has come up in threads a few times in the past and guess what - it ain't gonna happen.

 

[Vonn Brinkman]

I don't think FC wants to be a major GC contender. I think he could be, but indeed he would have to lose many kilos and do a different type of training program. many people say that because he won TOS last year that he can win a greater Tour but Switzerland was pretty flat and the competetion not as good as in a major Tour. All the big climbers were in Dauphine or not competing very fervently in Switzerland. And yes, FC simply smoked them on the TT's.
FC would not want to become a major GC contender as the possibility of him winning is very slim, he could perhaps get to the podium but win.....not so sure about that. He is far more dominant and successfull with the classics, LBL could definitely be a realistic goal for him, not the yellow jersey.

 

[Bag_O_Wallet]

As discussed in previous threat, it's far too risky. Why would he want to move, or for that matter, be allowed to move away from confirmed excellence in TT's and Classics toward possible success in grand tours?

 

[Polish]

Yes, I think it IS possible for him to win the TdF.

BUT he would need to focus on nothing but the TdF.
He would need SUPER focus, lazer-like focus. TOUR TOUR TOUR.
Peak for the TOUR. Nothing matters but the TOUR.

But he would also need to watch carefully what he eats, train harder than ever before, sleep in a tent, altitude train, and recon the course.

He would also need to be a TEAM Leader with mates willing to sacrifice themselves for his success.

Get himself into a Wind Tunnel, maybe expirement with higher cadence.

If Fabian did ALL these things, I think he COULD win a TdF.
Seriously. But it is a LOT of work. Thats the catch.

 

[FKLance]

Peak for the TOUR. Nothing matters but the TOUR.

But he would also need to watch carefully what he eats, train harder than ever before, sleep in a tent, altitude train, and recon the course.

He would also need to be a TEAM Leader with mates willing to sacrifice themselves for his success.

Get himself into a Wind Tunnel, maybe expirement with higher cadence.

Hasn't he done all these things already?

I think FC can win pretty much any race he wants, he's closest to the all-rounder eddy merckx-type as anyone right now. But it would not make sense for him to work too much on his climbing because that is not his strenght now, maybe later when he feels like it!

 

[jaylew]

Get himself into a Wind Tunnel, maybe expirement with higher cadence.

I don't know. From what I've noticed, he already rides with a high cadence - definitely while TTing. He's hardly a masher.

 

[jaylew]

he's closest to the all-rounder eddy merckx-type as anyone right now.

I'd say right now that's definitely Valverde but the title might pass to someone else very soon...

 

[peloton]

I don't think FC wants to be a major GC contender. I think he could be, but indeed he would have to lose many kilos and do a different type of training program. many people say that because he won TOS last year that he can win a greater Tour but Switzerland was pretty flat and the competetion not as good as in a major Tour.

Why not?

ToS 2009:

Final general classification
1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank 33:05:51
2 Tony Martin (Ger) Team Columbia - Highroad 0:02:02
3 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas 0:02:24
4 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:02:50
5 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Team Katusha 0:03:18
6 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - N.G.C. 0:03:23

 

[cyclopeon]

Contador lost a grand total of 15 seconds on Cancellara in the TTs of last year's Tour. I don't know how many minutes he won in the mountains, but my guess is: a lot. Cancellara has his work cut out for him.

Yes But: FC during the mountain stages put in a big effort for the team and then sat up; so the amount of time he lost is not a reflection of where he might have been if he had just sat in.

Not that I think he could have been in with the GT contenders. Just arguing for the sake of it...

 

[SpartacusRox]

As discussed in previous threat, it's far too risky. Why would he want to move, or for that matter, be allowed to move away from confirmed excellence in TT's and Classics toward possible success in grand tours?

I accept all you say as being very vaild reasons he wouldn't but FC needs challenges to keep him motivated, he has said so himself. Once he has all the monuments he wants, winning a GT (not necessarily the tdf) would seem to be a bit of a stretch goal for him. Having said that I agree that it would be a risk in terms of wasting several years training for no guarantee of success.

 

[knewcleardaze]

Yes, I think it IS possible for him to win the TdF.

BUT he would need to focus on nothing but the TdF.
He would need SUPER focus, lazer-like focus. TOUR TOUR TOUR.
Peak for the TOUR. Nothing matters but the TOUR.

But he would also need to watch carefully what he eats, train harder than ever before, sleep in a tent, altitude train, and recon the course.

He would also need to be a TEAM Leader with mates willing to sacrifice themselves for his success.

Get himself into a Wind Tunnel, maybe expirement with higher cadence.

If Fabian did ALL these things, I think he COULD win a TdF.
Seriously. But it is a LOT of work. Thats the catch.

Don't forget...I'm on my bike 8 hours a day, what are you on?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

He would also need to be a TEAM Leader with mates willing to sacrifice themselves for his success.

Perhaps he would be better as say #2 on a team and have a bit more scope for tactical riding?

 

[Galic Ho]

As discussed in previous threat, it's far too risky. Why would he want to move, or for that matter, be allowed to move away from confirmed excellence in TT's and Classics toward possible success in grand tours?

To answer your question. Ca-ching. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$. That is the reason. Ask Wigans while he is strapped to an anti-poligraph machine. It is all about the dollars. Glory comes second for most people.

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the sponsor troubles Riis is having. There has been talk for well over 6 months that both the Schlecks and Cancellara will leave Saxo. The talk was that BMC might try and get Cancellara after 2010. We'll see.

If Wigans can be a contender as BlackCat said, then so too can Spartacus. Just about the classiest rider there is in the peloton. The man is a monster.

 

[wattage]

If you can put out 500 watts you can afford to be a little bit bigger.