Credibility....

[ludwig]

Armstrong partisans have blitzed The Clinic. The times are desperate and the Landis revelations must be stopped....

The main thread of their arguments so far is Landis is a liar, therefore nothing he says has any credibility. It's his word against the peloton etc...

It's indisputable that Landis' past statements sully his trustworthiness as a messenger.

But it's more complex than that. As we all know, Landis had good reason to lie about his positive (ie salvaging his career). But when it comes to blowing the whistle, he has no reason....which is why this development is so surprising. He doesn't stand to gain anything by speaking out.

The above must to be taken account when evaluating the 'credibility' of Landis' statements, even as we acknowledge that the source himself has a record of falsehoods behind him.

We've seen this tactic before. When Jaksche came clean, omerta pointed out that not only had Jaksche denied doping, he had also taken a modest sum of money for the Spiegel interview when he made his revelations.

Still, the credibility charge will stick to Landis, even if no one will believe Armstrong either.

Hopefully Landis has some evidence or some people in the background that will come forward, otherwise the credibility charge will stick. That's not to say that reasonable people with access to the facts won't believe what he's saying is true. But just Landis' word alone is not necessarily going to cause a revolution in the sport.

 

[wattage]

When Landis shows whatever evidence he has, he will have all the credibility in the world for his story. Plus if someone else comes forward to back his story up, Lance is done. Too bad he made his millions already.

 

[scribe]

Armstrong partisans have blitzed The Clinic. The times are desperate and the Landis revelations must be stopped....

The main thread of their arguments so far is Landis is a liar, therefore nothing he says has any credibility. It's his word against the peloton etc...

It's indisputable that Landis' past statements sully his trustworthiness as a messenger.

But it's more complex than that. As we all know, Landis had good reason to lie about his positive (ie salvaging his career). But when it comes to blowing the whistle, he has no reason....which is why this development is so surprising. He doesn't stand to gain anything by speaking out.

The above must to be taken account when evaluating the 'credibility' of Landis' statements, even as we acknowledge that the source himself has a record of falsehoods behind him.

We've seen this tactic before. When Jaksche came clean, omerta pointed out that not only had Jaksche denied doping, he had also taken a modest sum of money for the Spiegel interview when he made his revelations.

Still, the credibility charge will stick to Landis, even if no one will believe Armstrong either.

Hopefully Landis has some evidence or some people in the background that will come forward, otherwise the credibility charge will stick. That's not to say that reasonable people with access to the facts won't believe what he's saying is true. But just Landis' word alone is not necessarily going to cause a revolution in the sport.

This is not quite the case. His only motive to blow the whistle is demonstrative extortion......oh, and to clear his conscience <--which he could have done post-statute of limitations).

When you look at the events leading up to this. Firstly, starting the moment he failed out of his TdF title, JB claims he threatened for a job, cash, comfort of his former team. They (JB and LA) blinked because he got bagged under his own program, they didn't need to be associated with a convicted doper, and who wants to buckle to extortion (?). Sooner or later, FL had to make good on his threats, and did as much before the statute of limitations expired, as he threatened to do, in an effort to make this stick while he could.

 

[scribe]

When Landis shows whatever evidence he has, he will have all the credibility in the world for his story. Plus if someone else comes forward to back his story up, Lance is done. Too bad he made his millions already.

Corroborative testimony will go miles to making his claims stick. His word, and some diaries aint gonna cut it.

btw: WTF keeps diaries of their doping regimen??? How about handing your conviction to investigators on a silver platter.

 

[ludwig]

This is not quite the case. His only motive to blow the whistle is demonstrative extortion......oh, and to clear his conscience <--which he could have done post-statute of limitations).
.

Well I agree his motives could be all over the map. I'd rather not speculate on them, since we'll probably know soon enough.

What I don't think he has is a reason to lie.

It's very difficult to imagine how spite and/or vengeance would motivate someone like Landis to fabricate information like this. This is the problem with "credibility" arguments...they need an explanation for why Landis would make it up. So far, the main line is to argue Landis is crazy, or not in his right mind.

He seemed pretty sober in that Bonnie Ford interview.

 

[RhodriM]

Unfortunately though, he is discredited. Even now, when he appears to have come clean, he still maintains that his 2006 positive was a mistake? Smells of bullsh*t to me.

As a result of that and his past misendeavours, I don't think this will come to much other than a lot of noise, which would be a shame.

 

[scribe]

Well I agree his motives could be all over the map. I'd rather not speculate on them, since we'll probably know soon enough.

What I don't think he has is a reason to lie.

It's very difficult to imagine how spite and/or vengeance would motivate someone like Landis to fabricate information like this. This is the problem with "credibility" arguments...they need an explanation for why Landis would make it up. So far, the main line is to argue Landis is crazy, or not in his right mind.

He seemed pretty sober in that Bonnie Ford interview.

Not spite, nor vengeance. Money is the steering factor, in the form of cash or job.

 

[ludwig]

Not spite, nor vengeance. Money is the steering factor, in the form of cash or job.

Well, he might have gotten some money had he NOT come forward. But how does he earn money by exposing himself and other cyclists to doping charges?

 

[scribe]

Well, he might have gotten some money had he NOT come forward. But how does he earn money by exposing himself and other cyclists to doping charges?

Statute of limitations would seriously handicap any help from official investigation. Without that help, we have only accusations.

 

[sida-mot]

He might have felt a guilty conscience not only about what he did but also what he knew and hadn't told. Secrets can be a heavy burden.

Sure I guess there is some vengeance in there as well. "I kept my end of the bargain and you guys treat me like dirt!"

Neither of these explanations makes his statements less plausible. Pretty much all arguments against his statements that I have read is that he is crazy and/or that he is a proven liar. The storm this has created and the very odd responses from those accused makes me certain that he has something and they know he has it.

 

[scribe]

God. We all know there is something to Landis's revelations. It IS consistent with what is happening in the sport.

 

[3rdWheel]

Those people calling Landis a complete liar I don't get, this issue is way more complex than black or white.

Did he lie when he said he didn't use steriods during the 2006 Tour? Did he lie about his HGH use during the 2006 Tour? Did he lie about his drug use during his time at U.S. Postal?

So if he's lying now or again, he didn't use HGH and dope while at Postal. See where I'm going? Why would he lie to make himself look like and even bigger doper than we already thought? To make him look credible so he could out other people? Then Landis is manaically crazy. Something at this point I don't believe.

This issue has grey written all over it. We'll just have to see how this all plays over the next few months to draw any heavy conclusions. But one thing I believe there are way more dopers in cycling than are caught.