Daniel Navarro Tour 2011

[ttrider]

I think in Contadors absence Navarro could do seriously well if given the chance, last year he was 3rd rider left on the col de madaleine leaving only Contador and Andy ahead of the rest, he also dragged the favorites group up the majority of Morzine dropping many other strong riders.

He is clearly excellent uphills and took a beautiful Dauphine Stage win, with limited tt and a decent supporting cast i believe he could easily be the surprise of the tour and end up in the top 10 possibly top 5 with luck

Hes certainly a far superior to Porte up hill

 

[Libertine Seguros]

He was 13th in the 2009 Vuelta riding in his own interests, but that was on pure Bruyneelian "don't attack. Don't try to gain time. Just hold on" tactics. Maybe if he got into some week 3 breaks he could get a surprising top 10, but that's all I think.

 

[roundabout]

Uh.

No.

End thread.

 

[ttrider]

I think he has progressed a lot since 2009 though, he was such an effective domestique for Contador last year as well

 

[theyoungest]

I think in Contadors absence Navarro could do seriously well if given the chance, last year he was 3rd rider left on the col de madaleine leaving only Contador and Andy ahead of the rest, he also dragged the favorites group up the majority of Morzine dropping many other strong riders.

He is clearly excellent uphills and took a beautiful Dauphine Stage win, with limited tt and a decent supporting cast i believe he could easily be the surprise of the tour and end up in the top 10 possibly top 5 with luck

Hes certainly a far superior to Porte up hill

Navarro basically voluntarily exploded to launch Contador. You have to keep in mind that the real contenders probably prevented exploding and followed on their own pace. If Navarro could keep that pace up to the top, he'd have won the Tour himself But nonetheless, you're probably right when you say that he's superior to Porte as a climber, since he was at least there with the favourites when the attacks started. Porte in the Giro was already dropped fair and square by that time.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think he has progressed a lot since 2009 though, he was such an effective domestique for Contador last year as well

OK, but let's look at the top 15 of that GT.

Valverde - better.
Sánchez - better.
Evans - better.
Basso - better.
Mosquera - better.
Gesink - better.
Tiralongo - maybe similar skill levels? Tiralongo got there simply by holding on just like Navarro was trying to do. Tiralongo was obviously better at it back in '09 but Navarro could be of a similar level in '11.
Rodríguez - was working as a domestique. Better than Navarro.
Deignan - probably not better but gained time thanks to getting into breaks.
Cobo - better, at least until 2010.
Moreno - working as a domestique.
Hoogerland - ditto Deignan.
Navarro - 15 minutes down overall.
Zubeldia - when motivated and allowed freedom I would expect him to outperform Navarro too.
Vázquez - similar path to Navarro in race, but presently suspended.

The Tour has a stronger field than the Vuelta, and we've just established that even an on-form Navarro of the present couldn't have finished higher than 7th in that Vuelta. He'd probably need breaks to get into the top 10, same as Horner and Plaza attempted this year, as Deignan did at the Vuelta above, etc.

Here is where Navarro lost time to race winner Alejandro Valverde in that Vuelta:

Stage 1 (Assen ITT): Valverde 8th (+18" from Cancellara), Navarro 67th (+30" from Cancellara) - +12"
Stage 6: Valverde 14th (st as Bozic), Navarro 51st (+9") - +21" total
Stage 7 (Valencia ITT): Valverde 13th (+1'05" from Cancellara), Navarro 47th (+2'07") - +1'23" total
Stage 8 (Alto de Aitana): Valverde 5th (+44" from Cunego), Navarro 15th (+1'32") - +2'11" total
Stage 9 (Xorret del Catí): Valverde 3rd (+40" from César), Navarro 18th (+1'37") - +3'16" total
Stage 12 (Velefique): Valverde 6th (+16" from Hesjedal), Navarro 16th (+53"): +3'53" total
Stage 13 (Sierra Nevada): Valverde 3rd (+1'16" from Moncoutié), Navarro 19th (+5'36"): 8'21" total
Stage 14 (La Pandera): Valverde 5th (+3'22" from Cunego), Navarro 31st (+6'51"): 11'50" total
Stage 18: Valverde 19th (+9'40" from Deignan), Navarro 27th (+9'41"): 11'51" total
Stage 19: Valverde 2nd (+2" from Cobo), Navarro 11th (+1'34"): 13'35" total
Stage 20 (Toledo ITT): Valverde 7th (+36" from Millar), Navarro 41st (+2'07"): 15'06" total.

As you can see, Navarro there lost time in every single key stage. And that was a race with a reasonable field strength, but raced very conservatively.

Navarro finished 1'38'30" down in the Tour. One of the reasons he was such a good mountain domestique is that he's a guy who's strong enough to come in the top 15 but probably not the top 10; he's able to put people in trouble if he goes full gas, but he can't do that all the way up. As a domestique he can let go and ride as slowly as he wants the rest of the way. When you're fighting for your own goals, you can't do that.

 

[hrotha]

I see him being 11th-20th, probably 15th-20th, under normal circumstances.

 

[rxgqgxnyfz]

You're forgetting that he was able to dictate that monster pace of his in the last Tour mountain stages because Martinelli made him to take it easy, conserve energy and basically have a rest day on wheels on previous stages.

Daniel generally lacks stability as GT rider and can randomly catch a lot of time out of nowhere.

 

[will10]

He was only an effective domestique for Contador because he spent the first week finishing virtually last minutes behind on the flat stages to save energy for the mountain stages. Stepping up from helping in a few stages to having to do the final every day is a big ask and one beyond him I think. Would be better suited to KoM

 

[jens_attacks]

he could go for the king of the mountains jersey.i just can't see him in the top ten of le tour.

 

[taiwan]

Porte's 7th at the Giro, under whatever circumstances, should earn him protection at the Tour. Why not let Navarro lead at the Giro?

 

[Ryaguas]

No way Dani can hit top 10 in a race like Le Tour... consistency is the key and He lacks of it.. also the TT... mmmm IDK but He and CAS could do massive damage in the peloton in a MTF =D

 

[Havetts]

So they hurt the peloton for some time just to be exhausted after a short while, seems fun but isnt really practical .

 

[Libertine Seguros]

No way Dani can hit top 10 in a race like Le Tour... consistency is the key and He lacks of it.. also the TT... mmmm IDK but He and CAS could do massive damage in the peloton in a MTF =D

The Court of Arbitration for Sport has already done massive damage to the type of péloton we'd expect to see in an MTF

 

[hrotha]

Porte's 7th at the Giro, under whatever circumstances, should earn him protection at the Tour. Why not let Navarro lead at the Giro?

Porte is not a solid leader (he's barely a leader). If he's doing fine and his teammates can help him in a particular situation, that's good, but he's not the kind of rider you should sacrifice any of your other options for. Kinda like Roche in 2010.

 

[taiwan]

Porte is not a solid leader (he's barely a leader). If he's doing fine and his teammates can help him in a particular situation, that's good, but he's not the kind of rider you should sacrifice any of your other options for. Kinda like Roche in 2010.

I don't disagree with this. It's his first Tour in fact, isn't it? Just a matter of gaining experience. Doesn't mean they should ride for Navarro either of course. So...

basically, Saxo Bank are sort of ****ed. Target stages?

 

[Ryaguas]

The Court of Arbitration for Sport has already done massive damage to the type of péloton we'd expect to see in an MTF

I know that you know that is Chris Anker Sorensen... but lets put it complete for other ppl in the forum =D

basically, Saxo Bank are sort of ****ed. Target stages?

If Alberto is not going to ride, what seems to be the most likely... SBS is going to hunt stages tho and if It can be possible a good position in the GC... but I cant see any of them hitting the Top10

 

[kease7]

If you asked Bjarne now and said one of your riders will be in the Top 20 without contador he will bite your hand off. In my eyes that would be a great tour for them.

Lets look at the top 20 from last year & see where they can get that spot.

1. CONTADOR Alberto = Banned
2. SCHLECK Andy
3. MENCHOV Denis = team not invited
4. SANCHEZ Samuel
5. VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen
6. GESINK Robert
7. HESJEDAL Ryder
8. RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquin = not doing the tour
9. KREUZIGER Roman
10. HORNER Christopher
11. SANCHEZ Luis-Leon
12. PLAZA MOLINA Ruben
13. LEIPHEIMER Levi
14. KLÖDEN Andréas
15. ROCHE Nicolas
16. VINOKOUROV Alexandre
17. LÖVKVIST Thomas
18. DE WEERT Kevin
19. GADRET John
20. SASTRE Carlos = team not invited

Add in Wiggins, Evans, Basso, possibly Brajkovic & the garmin surprise rider in the top 10

Have I missed any riders & info?

 

[movingtarget]

Can he time trial ? Porte is a good time triallist. I have my doubts about him finishing ahead of Porte. It's one thing riding tempo up mountains but it's another responding to all of the attacks. He did a great job for Contador last year and he is obviously a great climber but being a team leader creates a different sort of pressure. Porte is still learning. I see Navarro as being a top 10 rider at the very best. At this stage I would put Porte at about the same level with the time trial being the difference between the two over a three week Tour. Even without Menchov and Contador I think it will still be hard for either Porte or Navarro to finish in the top 10 in this year's TDF. I think Riis would be very happy if either one broke into the top 10. Navarro might have a better shot at a stage victory if he is let off the leash.