Do Prodigies Peak Early or Sustain Growth?

[ppanther92]

Re:

I would say it was a combination of things that finally broke Andy. Those being losing the 10 Tour only to be awarded it 2 years later, losing the 11 Tour when going in he thought he would win, his crash, and Frank's suspension. All 4 of those took a big toll on him and by the looks of it was to much for him to handle.

True, but after his knee injury 2012 he just couldn't ride painless anymore. He may have came back faster if he had an better work ethic. Maybe he wouldn't have been on the same level ever again, but who knows. I still find it very hard thinking about his spectator caused crash in 2012 which ultimately ended his career. The preparation races were much better than one year before. He would have achieved at least an top10. I am pretty sure about that.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

Personally, i think in many cases, it's a mental issue. Riders that had to fight for years, to become a top rider, to earn their spot, get their shot... appear (to me) to be mentally stronger. They got to grow out of the spotlights, without too much pressure and expectations. So when they eventually get there at age 27, they are "full grown". Whereas riders that are "brought" soon, at the age of 21-24, they are often considered "top talents"; get all the attention, pressure and expectations... and are mentally "done" by the time they should be at their best.

I think this is the most compelling response thus far. Physiological talent is one thing. But converting that potential into actuality requires immense mental discipline and drive - the best legs + heart may not have the best head....

And then we have a guy like Sagan. The biggest performances of a 20 year-old in our era, and he turns out to become the best cyclist in our era as well.

Even though people think he is goofing around too much.

But I honestly don't know if he is physically stronger now than when he was 23.

I think his attitude/mindset is a big factor in this. He obviously has enough drive or ambition to do enough work, but that's coupled with a kind of joy for racing/living. Maybe the perfect combination?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re: Re:

Personally, i think in many cases, it's a mental issue. Riders that had to fight for years, to become a top rider, to earn their spot, get their shot... appear (to me) to be mentally stronger. They got to grow out of the spotlights, without too much pressure and expectations. So when they eventually get there at age 27, they are "full grown". Whereas riders that are "brought" soon, at the age of 21-24, they are often considered "top talents"; get all the attention, pressure and expectations... and are mentally "done" by the time they should be at their best.

I think this is the most compelling response thus far. Physiological talent is one thing. But converting that potential into actuality requires immense mental discipline and drive - the best legs + heart may not have the best head....

And then we have a guy like Sagan. The biggest performances of a 20 year-old in our era, and he turns out to become the best cyclist in our era as well.

Even though people think he is goofing around too much.

But I honestly don't know if he is physically stronger now than when he was 23.

My initial comment wasn't to say that it is impossible for "big talents" to also have the mental strength to deliver upon those high expectations, like Sagan indeed. Just that i think, it is very likely that riders that have been heralded as the next coming of Christ between the age of 17-22 (like Evenepoel/Bernal at the moment and Quintana etc before) but end up stagnating or fading instead, that in many cases, it has to do with mental strength, mental fatigue, stress, performance anxiety (or in some cases, laziness)... Not that this is the only possible explanation, but maybe more common than we realize. It's something you also see in football (soccer), another sport where talented youngsters are put in the spotlights (even more so), with astronomical fees changing hand, at an early age. And where in many cases, the 19 year old player that takes a step back, to launch his carreer in the second division of a smaller league, ends up with a better carreer record, than the 16 year old that was bought by Chelsea or Real Madrid for a few million €/$.

I think mental strength plays a very big part in many sports. Tennis is another fine example, where mental strength is more often than not a deciding factor. Top players that are playing worse than players ranked 200 places lower, yet somehow win the deciding points and the match.

I think his attitude/mindset is a big factor in this. He obviously has enough drive or ambition to do enough work, but that's coupled with a kind of joy for racing/living. Maybe the perfect combination?

I think there are many similarities with Mathieu van der Poel.

 

[Koronin]

It does appear that most riders who peak early do not hold or improve on that and are in decline when many others are hitting their peaks in their late 20's to early 30's. Although I do think Quintana is a strange case. Bernal may very well follow what Quintana has done. When talking about Andy it seems there were a combination of things that had an effect on him.

Then there is the mental side of it that some people are just better at dealing with that aspect of sports in general than other people are.

As a child (early teen) while racing as a cadet many fans who watched Valverde at that age knew he was going to be a huge star in the sport. Now when did he actually hit his peak. Great question and after he retires we might be able to figure it out. He had his first Vuelta podium and Worlds podium in 2003 at 23 years old and now at 38 after suffering what could have been a career ending injury he's back winning races. Then again he's an outlier.

Contador won his first Tour at 25 and won his final GT at 33.

 

[IndianCyclist]

i expect Riders who peak early would have a peak followed by a dip due to immense expectations and then a peak again in later years While those who peak late will usually have ~3-5 year at peak level consistently.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Wasn't Contador 24 when he won the tour and then 25 for giro and vuelta?

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Wasn't Contador 24 when he won the tour and then 25 for giro and vuelta?

Yes, and 32 when he won the 2015 Giro. Born December ‘82.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Wasn't Contador 24 when he won the tour and then 25 for giro and vuelta?

Yes, and 32 when he won the 2015 Giro. Born December ‘82.

Sorry, got his age slightly wrong. However, still fits what I was saying about the fact that he maintained a high/peak level for a long time.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Wasn't Contador 24 when he won the tour and then 25 for giro and vuelta?

Yes, and 32 when he won the 2015 Giro. Born December ‘82.

Sorry, got his age slightly wrong. However, still fits what I was saying about the fact that he maintained a high/peak level for a long time.

Took a prolonged break in 2012, tbf. Debatable how that would have affected his palmares/longevity.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Re: Re:

Wasn't Contador 24 when he won the tour and then 25 for giro and vuelta?

Yes, and 32 when he won the 2015 Giro. Born December ‘82.

Sorry, got his age slightly wrong. However, still fits what I was saying about the fact that he maintained a high/peak level for a long time.

No it does and I'm not trying to discredit what you said. I just remembered it as he was 24 when he won the Tour so double checking to make sure I remembered right.

 

[Leinster]

It doesn’t change that Contador had 8 years from his first GT win to last, and that’s an impressively long run. I think I recall that had he won another GT in 2016 he would have been close to breaking the record? (Must be Coppi who holds it, pre and post-war Giri?)

Checked; Bartali had 12 years, Coppi 13 between first and last. Contador is well ahead of anyone else in the modern era; Froome would have to win a GT in 2021, aged 36, to match. If Nibali wins the Vuelta this year, he’ll match, and if he wins a GT next year, he’ll go ahead.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Wasn't Contador 24 when he won the tour and then 25 for giro and vuelta?

Yes, and 32 when he won the 2015 Giro. Born December ‘82.

Sorry, got his age slightly wrong. However, still fits what I was saying about the fact that he maintained a high/peak level for a long time.

No it does and I'm not trying to discredit what you said. I just remembered it as he was 24 when he won the Tour so double checking to make sure I remembered right.

It's all good. I still apologize for getting his age wrong.

However, I'm wondering if both Contador (to a lesser extent) and Valverde (to a much greater extent) are the outliers due to how long they have both been at the top level.

It doesn’t change that Contador had 8 years from his first GT win to last, and that’s an impressively long run. I think I recall that had he won another GT in 2016 he would have been close to breaking the record? (Must be Coppi who holds it, pre and post-war Giri?)

Checked; Bartali had 12 years, Coppi 13 between first and last. Contador is well ahead of anyone else in the modern era; Froome would have to win a GT in 2021, aged 36, to match. If Nibali wins the Vuelta this year, he’ll match, and if he wins a GT next year, he’ll go ahead.

Agreed, it's an impressive run. I hadn't realized that Nibali is close to that (which makes his time impressive as well). Is 13 also the record for most years between first and last or most recent podiums in a GT as well as wins? If so Valverde ties Coppi with GT podiums, also Coppi's wins that far apart is more impressive.

 

[Leinster]

Gimondi had 11 years from the 65 Tour to the 76 Giro. I’m just getting all this from the winners’ list on Wiki, so I have no idea re podiums.

And I don’t think there can be any doubt that these guys we’re discussing are all outliers. A winner of a GT is an outlier by definition, a multi-winner doubly so. I haven’t even looked at monuments.

The average pro cyclist career is supposedly 4 years or less, so to even ride a GT 4 years after riding a first one puts a rider in a veeeery small club.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

In endurance sports, it has less to do with absolute age, and more to do with when their breakthrough is. For some readers, that distinction might not be any more helpful, but it means that the breakthrough performance, and the years leading up to it, are no predictor of growth or trend in future performances. The breakthrough only means that the athlete will be at or around that level for a few or many years to come. The clock starts once people start talking about that athlete, and I would hypothesize that that there has been no athlete who had their breakthrough after wide-ranging discussions among fans (as opposed to one fan or "calling it now" in an obscure post or article). Put another way, I can't think of an athlete who has broken through twice, into two different levels of performance years apart.

Cavendish arguably brokethrough again in 2016 after not being the same since 2012. Looking at other sports, Nadal and Federer 2017 jump to mind

 

[AnatoleNovak]

Re: Re:

Is 13 also the record for most years between first and last or most recent podiums in a GT as well as wins? If so Valverde ties Coppi with GT podiums, also Coppi's wins that far apart is more impressive.

Poulidor was on the podium of the TdF in 62 and 76.

Edit: Coppi was on the podium of the Giro in 40 and 55.

 

[staubsauger]

Ullrich podium the Tour de France multiple times, won the 1999 Vuelta a Espana and most notably twice won the Tour of Switzerland (2004 & 2006) in the fall of his career.

He absolutely doesn't belong in this list, since he held his level throughout his career!

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Ullrich podium the Tour de France multiple times, won the 1999 Vuelta a Espana and most notably twice won the Tour of Switzerland (2004 & 2006) in the fall of his career.

He absolutely doesn't belong in this list, since he held his level throughout his career!

Yeah, Tour podiums in 1996 and 2005 is an impressively long, successful career. If you would say anything about his results, it would be to ask how did he only ever win 2 GTs.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Re: Re:

In endurance sports, it has less to do with absolute age, and more to do with when their breakthrough is. For some readers, that distinction might not be any more helpful, but it means that the breakthrough performance, and the years leading up to it, are no predictor of growth or trend in future performances. The breakthrough only means that the athlete will be at or around that level for a few or many years to come. The clock starts once people start talking about that athlete, and I would hypothesize that that there has been no athlete who had their breakthrough after wide-ranging discussions among fans (as opposed to one fan or "calling it now" in an obscure post or article). Put another way, I can't think of an athlete who has broken through twice, into two different levels of performance years apart.

Cavendish arguably brokethrough again in 2016 after not being the same since 2012. Looking at other sports, Nadal and Federer 2017 jump to mind

I would say 2013 for Cav because he still won 7 GT stages plus the points classification in the Giro. 2015 He still had the speed, he just kept going early to make up for 2014.

 

[Narce_]

Re: Re:

However, I'm wondering if both Contador (to a lesser extent) and Valverde (to a much greater extent) are the outliers due to how long they have both been at the top level.

Contador and Valverde both had to sit out for a while in their prime years. I think it gave them a different mindset: I remember reading recently that Valverde said something like this.

I've always followed Contador's career closely. I think that after his ban, he didn't have that all-consuming hunger for the win: he cared a lot about winning in a spectacular way, he cared about making the race enjoyable from the fans' point of view, he started his development team. He still wanted to win, but only in a specific way. Sometimes, his attempts paid off, other times not.

I think that had he not retired, he would be able to maintain a high level for a good while, like Valverde. I think that he would be able to fill a new role, and he's surely still able to win races (maybe not GTs). But I think that for both Contador and Valverde, winning at all cost is not an option anymore. In the last years, I had the impression that they both wanted to enjoy the race, to experiment and try new things/tactics/roles, to indulge to home crowd.

And while this mindset can't magically give you more power, it can prevent you from burning yourself out too early.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

However, I'm wondering if both Contador (to a lesser extent) and Valverde (to a much greater extent) are the outliers due to how long they have both been at the top level.

Contador and Valverde both had to sit out for a while in their prime years. I think it gave them a different mindset: I remember reading recently that Valverde said something like this.

I've always followed Contador's career closely. I think that after his ban, he didn't have that all-consuming hunger for the win: he cared a lot about winning in a spectacular way, he cared about making the race enjoyable from the fans' point of view, he started his development team. He still wanted to win, but only in a specific way. Sometimes, his attempts paid off, other times not.

I think that had he not retired, he would be able to maintain a high level for a good while, like Valverde. I think that he would be able to fill a new role, and he's surely still able to win races (maybe not GTs). But I think that for both Contador and Valverde, winning at all cost is not an option anymore. In the last years, I had the impression that they both wanted to enjoy the race, to experiment and try new things/tactics/roles, to indulge to home crowd.

And while this mindset can't magically give you more power, it can prevent you from burning yourself out too early.

They both started their development teams right after their bans. Valverde has talked in the last two/three years that he's now racing to enjoy himself and not worrying about anything. He's said his Tour podium freed him. He's said that for whatever time he has left he just wants to have fun and make sure his fans are having fun. He's also made the comment (esp after his injury last summer) that he's racing on borrowed time now.
I think you may be correct that they changed their mentality and it's allowed them to not burn themselves out because of it. One thing with Valverde, esp since his ban, is that he will never put himself into the red during a race for any reason at all.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Ullrich podium the Tour de France multiple times, won the 1999 Vuelta a Espana and most notably twice won the Tour of Switzerland (2004 & 2006) in the fall of his career.

He absolutely doesn't belong in this list, since he held his level throughout his career!

Many still considered him to be a prodigy. Second in the Tour at the age of 23 and a successful amateur career. Of course there were other familiar issues involved like for many other riders that had good careers.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Is 13 also the record for most years between first and last or most recent podiums in a GT as well as wins? If so Valverde ties Coppi with GT podiums, also Coppi's wins that far apart is more impressive.

Poulidor was on the podium of the TdF in 62 and 76.

Edit: Coppi was on the podium of the Giro in 40 and 55.

TY

 

[Bolder]

One reason some prodigies seem to plateau quickly or even fall off is that they become a known quantity, so they receive a lot more attention from the peloton as marked men, so they can't ride quite as offensively as they could as unknowns.

We see this in tennis or baseball fairly often -- a hitter or pitcher will have a breakthrough year as a youngster, then the league (or tennis opponents) figures out what their weaknesses are and plays against them accordingly. For example, if you know that Quintana hates long, grinding climbs, then the best strategy is to try to isolate him. But it can take a couple of seasons for those patterns to develop.

Overall, though, I don't think you can answer the OP question definitively one way or another. One thing we can say is that it's extremely rare for a rider to burst on the scene after age 27-28.