Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Red Rick]

I would quite literally be more optimistic about 3rd if Lipowitz weren't on his own team. But ohwell.

 

[Berniece]

I would quite literally be more optimistic about 3rd if Lipowitz weren't on his own team. But ohwell.

But he took another 36s on him today. I think both can do whatever they want for the rest of the TDF, and Roglic will come out on top.

 

[Red Rick]

But he took another 36s on him today. I think both can do whatever they want for the rest of the TDF, and Roglic will come out on top.

I'm a bit worried they will be 3rd and 4th best on Ventoux and in the Alps and that team leadership will freeze the action.

I don't think Rog is magically 3rd best tomorrow, he's just that much of a natural 20 minute stomper compared to everyone else.

 

[Berniece]

I'm a bit worried they will be 3rd and 4th best on Ventoux and in the Alps and that team leadership will freeze the action.

I don't think Rog is magically 3rd best tomorrow, he's just that much of a natural 20 minute stomper compared to everyone else.

Definitely could be the case. If Roglic thinks he can do better but is being held back by leadership, then he needs to follow a Pogacar/Vingegaard attack where others would pick their own pace. Follow it for 30s, and then go for your own pace. Or attack before Pogacar/Vingegaard go, but that's not realistic if they keep drilling non-stop like this.

 

[Oldman]

I would quite literally be more optimistic about 3rd if Lipowitz weren't on his own team. But ohwell.

We don't really know who holds up best for 3 weeks, this Tour. History is in Roglic's favor but it'll take some luck and strategic magic to get him out in open air. Dream sequence would give him 2 minutes on stage 18 or 19 and Tadej decides to roll up and work with him. Teddy would take the stage but that could be easier than fighting every piddly attack from a small group. Are we dreamers? Masochists, for sure.

 

[Red Rick]

We don't really know who holds up best for 3 weeks, this Tour. History is in Roglic's favor but it'll take some luck and strategic magic to get him out in open air. Dream sequence would give him 2 minutes on stage 18 or 19 and Tadej decides to roll up and work with him. Teddy would take the stage but that could be easier than fighting every piddly attack from a small group. Are we dreamers? Masochists, for sure.

Maybe Pogacar does remember than 5 second pull Rogla did at the WC.

 

[Oldman]

But he took another 36s on him today. I think both can do whatever they want for the rest of the TDF, and Roglic will come out on top.

Fortunately RBH might be smart enough to make those judgements as stages unfold. It's too early to sacrifice either Florian or Primoz if it's not a clearcut blowup of form. JV will now have to deal with what they've done to themselves and it tipped the power balance a bit.
Leave Tadej to provide the final gap to Jonas as much as possible to keep both of those teams working, IMO.

 

[Oldman]

Maybe Pogacar does remember than 5 second pull Rogla did at the WC.

Maybe. It's better than working alone if you have a detente'. Not much point in Roglic attacking a helper that's 10 minutes ahead and riding with you, right?

 

[svit]

Lipowitz is in totally uknown territory in 3rd week. This is his first TDF and he can collapse.

Obviously Rogla can too.

 

[svit]

My dream sequence is as follows.

Rogla early attacks on 18 stage. Pogi and Vinge let him go (why worried for a guy who is 8 minutes back), but then a storm comes between Rogla group an Yellow jersey group. Roglic gloriously cycle in the sun with some other riders (no GC contenders) in the attack group, when all others ride in the storm. Suddenly the gap between attackers and chasers grow to 10:00 minutes and Rogla gained yellow jersey at the end of the stage.

After the stage all hells broke loose and forum melts down.

Rogla retains yellow jersey all the way to the Paris and his story arc is complete. He become the saint of the cycling, a movie is made by Hollywood and he entered into the history as the special legend as he already is.

Ahhhh, sweet dreams...

 

[dazaau]

I think Roglič is the only one who can make this TT position all the way work.

Honestly, he was the only one riding a TT bike actually riding it aero

 

[Oldman]

My dream sequence is as follows.

Rogla early attacks on 18 stage. Pogi and Vinge let him go (why worried for a guy who is 8 minutes back), but then a storm comes between Rogla group an Yellow jersey group. Roglic gloriously cycle in the sun with some other riders (no GC contenders) in the attack group, when all others ride in the storm. Suddenly the gap between attackers and chasers grow to 10:00 minutes and Rogla gained yellow jersey at the end of the stage.

After the stage all hells broke loose and forum melts down.

Rogla retains yellow jersey all the way to the Paris and his story arc is complete. He become the saint of the cycling, a movie is made by Hollywood and he entered into the history as the special legend as he already is.

Ahhhh, sweet dreams...

Sounds sweet. Don't forget stage 21....where he and MvP lap the field together in front of all of Paris and come in another 10 minutes ahead.

 

[CyclistAbi]

After a great ITT a portal is now open and the peloton slowly started moving into Rogličes territory, first big test again tomorrow. Most likely scenario is to follow and do your best on ultimate climb, there the legs will sort the favourites out, day in day out.

In addition to that somehow i feel that Rogla must be now vigilant in term of not missing out a good breakaway, starting tomorrow. Visma might try something with Jorgenson or similar, jumping on that wheel and halving the GC deficit, preferably ASAP. We'll see.

 

[Oldman]

After a great ITT a portal is now open and the peloton slowly started moving into Rogličes territory, first big test again tomorrow. Most likely scenario is to follow and do your best on ultimate climb, there the legs will sort the favourites out, day in day out.

In addition to that somehow i feel that Rogla must be now vigilant in term of not missing out a good breakaway, starting tomorrow. Visma might try something with Jorgenson or similar, jumping on that wheel and halving the GC deficit, preferably ASAP. We'll see.

You have a good option for Visma who find themselves in a bad place with alot of effort spent putting themselves there.
I've said from early on they've misused Matteo's skills and yesterday's RR proved that either fatigue or dietary issues can compound a really weak day. His TT suggests he's on the mend but a Hail Mary move relies on it being real form; not Denk's hope to continue playing Vindegaard's card. Roglic would be an ideal accomplice along with the dozen adventurers that would surely respond. It's not like the options increase for podium pretenders as we get closer to Paris.
If they attempt it and Matteo loses more time or worse; JV is out of options and fending off those that will take them off the podium completely. Tadej will watch that and let it happen if he has more time to play with.

 

[TrekCyclist]

As Aldag said it would be stupid to decide on a GC leader early.
Protect both until the action starts on the mountian stages and then let both them do their best.
Best scenario is to keep both in contention far into the Alps.
Not certain haw Roglic can do on long / multiple climbs. And not certain how strong Lipowitz will be in the 3rd week

 

[Miha81]

Summer is here

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[dazaau]

TT was great but apparently due to position and pacing experience. Still something very off, got caught and passed by Ben Healey, still, final week is a monster. Looking like 3rd belongs to his team mate if Lipo can hold form

 

[Red Rick]

TT was great but apparently due to position and pacing experience. Still something very off, got caught and passed by Ben Healey, still, final week is a monster. Looking like 3rd belongs to his team mate if Lipo can hold form

The endurance just isn't there. The ITT has nothing to do with endurance, he's a natural at that, he'll do at least 6.5 W/kg on that TT on a hangover after Christmas.

 

[dazaau]

The endurance just isn't there. The ITT has nothing to do with endurance, he's a natural at that, he'll do at least 6.5 W/kg on that TT on a hangover after Christmas.

Yes, sub 30min total effort is very different. Endurance just isn't there

 

[acm]

We are not quite back, but I was afraid he'd be much worse. Especially with the weather...

 

[Peyroteo94]

He looks like post ban Contador. Still a beast in w/kg but when he has a hard race before the final climb, his power isn't there anymore

 

[Red Rick]

He's still gradually improving. Might get 4th behind Lipowitz.

 

[dazaau]

So, Vuelta is stacked and Roglic has already started two grand tours. Can't see Pog rocking up at the giro given his classics ambitions, so... one more crack at the Giro? 😍

(Once he finishes business here of course)

 

[acm]

The endurance just isn't there. The ITT has nothing to do with endurance, he's a natural at that, he'll do at least 6.5 W/kg on that TT on a hangover after Christmas.

I guess that's also due to antibiotics.

 

[dazaau]

He's still gradually improving. Might get 4th behind Lipowitz.

Agree, and while I wish Lipo well the third week is a bit untested for him and the other contenders.