Dope Tests in Numbers

[sometriguy]

Sitting around chatting with a buddy this morning, we started talking about the utter failure in testing that is going on based up some pretty simple calculations. We were using the TDF as an example, but probably any set of numbers can be used.

198ish riders over 3 weeks. They probably average about 5 tests a piece ( I made this up, correct me if I am wrong).

This yields about 1000 samples from this year's TDF. Let's add in last year's TDF as well, so a total of 2000 samples

From these 2000 samples, we have only 1 "positive" from an arbitrarily small amount of a borderline (at best) doping agent. The amount that was discovered was probably only detectable at a few labs in the world.

So 1 test out of 2000 tests returns one positive. I mean, what is the chance of a false positive?

Seriously, this many tests on what are essentially walking/talking pharmacies.

Are the testers that far behind the game, or are the powers that be just turning a blind eye 90 percent of the time?

 

[JPM London]

...They probably average about 5 tests a piece ( I made this up, correct me if I am wrong)...

And that's your first problem right there... I don't know what the figure would be, but it's certainly not that high.

Someone around here would know - but AFAIK it's not even a total of five test PER DAY. You're more likely looking at a figure of 100 tests for the whole tour.

 

[sometriguy]

And that's your first problem right there... I don't know what the figure would be, but it's certainly not that high.

Someone around here would know - but AFAIK it's not even a total of five test PER DAY. You're more likely looking at a figure of 100 tests for the whole tour.

Guess I got caught up in the twitter hype, guess they really aren't tested as much as they would like us to believe

 

[JRTinMA]

Nums

The only reference I could find quotes McQuaid as saying that over 600 anti-doping tests were carried out at the 2010 tour. I'm guessing 601 is a safe bet.

 

[luckyboy]

Maybe they should test each rider five times a day.

 

[El Pistolero]

Contador got tested 8 times this Tour, to give you an indication.

 

[miteycasey]

Using your logic that means no one else ate the Spanish beef.

 

[Cobblestones]

Using your logic that means no one else ate the Spanish beef.

So, are all the teams now relocating from Girona? All the Spanish cattle there, should be scary. You could be popped in an OOCT for Clen practically anyday.

 

[JPM London]

The only reference I could find quotes McQuaid as saying that over 600 anti-doping tests were carried out at the 2010 tour. I'm guessing 601 is a safe bet.

Ok, but I highly doubt this means 30 different people every day. It could potentially mean they did two blood and two urine samples from each subject (A and B's) and thus only took samples from 7.5 riders/day on average - that sounds more realistic to me.

And then we don't know how many of those samples were actually tested! We have seen indications in other threads that the test numbers could be inflated...

And does those 600+ tests include the period up to the Tour as well? It could very well do that.

And how many test were battery-in-bike-scans? They probably included that figure in there as well!

 

[cprior]

If the numbers are indeed that low: This explains the "superhuman" domestique efforts as they have almost nothing to fear...

 

[shouldawouldacoulda]

TDF tests

The number of tests taken during the TDF are pretty easy to find and then estimate. The UCI rules can be downloaded from their website: Anti Doping Rules. see appendix 2, for Article 175 Selection of riders to be tested. Also Chapter 6, Testing.

In any race there is a Technical Guide, this can be a bit harder to track down for the Tour, but as an example here's a public link to the 2006 Tour Technical Guide, each team gets a ton of these to distribute to riders and staff. In the tech guide will always be a section on Anti-doping and any particularities for the event: TDF tech guide See Article 26 : Drug Testing - which in this case doesn't actually say much. But other tech guides will be much more detailed.

If you read these you can see that daily competition tests would only be at most 4 riders. 2 more random reserve riders would also be called - but most often dismissed. In each stage riders tested are:

Winner of stage
Leader of General Classification
2 Random riders

So that would be around 84 in competition tests. But this could be less if say the GC leader wins the stage - which usually happens on a couple of stages.

Additionally as part of the bio-passport each team would likely be subject to at least one and sometimes two or more visits to their hotel by Anti-doping authorities. These tests could be blood, urine or both. Every rider would be tested. Probably 6 teams would get tested twice during the tour. And then some individual riders who are on the UCI's profiling list may get tested even more.

So that would be about 250 out of competition tests roughly. Some years this could be much more, but likely not much less.

For a total of about 334 tests during the Tour.

It could be more or less depending on the ooc tests at the hotel. No one will ever know how many of those may or may not take place prior to the event. After the event the specific test numbers for the Tour usually aren't published but the UCI rolls up its season statistics here

The good news or bad news is that every rider in the Tour is likely tested at least once. Its possible a rider could not be tested at all, if : he never led the race, never won a stage and abandoned before an ooc test at his team's hotel. The bad news is its possible to win a jersey like the Mountains or young rider jersey and only be tested once - out of competition.

All in all the number of tests is significantly lower than SomeTriGuy guessed as 2000 tests in his OP.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

This was a breakdown of the tests for the 2009 TdF.

Total tests were 762, but of that 331 were towards the Biological Passport.

185 Urine.
246 Blood
331 Biological Passport.
762

In addition over 190 samples were collected from riders short listed to start the Tour during the months of May and June.

 

[shouldawouldacoulda]

This was a breakdown of the tests for the 2009 TdF.

Total tests were 762, but of that 331 were towards the Biological Passport.

185 Urine.
246 Blood
331 Biological Passport.
762

In addition over 190 samples were collected from riders short listed to start the Tour during the months of May and June.

This is interesting info. What's the source?

In my estimates I wasn't delineating blood/urine tests as unique. But I probably should have. I did this because those samples are often taken at the same time - so the rider is called once, but provides 2 samples.

I would also like to know from the numbers you quoted above how many were post-stage versus at the hotels? It's hard to tell the way you've broken them down?

The most encouraging thing from these numbers is that it is far far greater than the what would be the minimum required for in-competion tests.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

This is interesting info. What's the source?

In my estimates I wasn't delineating blood/urine tests as unique. But I probably should have. I did this because those samples are often taken at the same time - so the rider is called once, but provides 2 samples.

I would also like to know from the numbers you quoted above how many were post-stage versus at the hotels? It's hard to tell the way you've broken them down?

The most encouraging thing from these numbers is that it is far far greater than the what would be the minimum required for in-competion tests.

Apologies for not providing a link - I had it written down and came across it earlier today.

The figures came from McQuaid comments last year.
I don't think they provided a breakdown on when samples were taken -http://velonews.competitor.com/2009/10/ ... ance_99666] but here is the full article.[/URL]

 

[shouldawouldacoulda]

Dr. Maserati that is a great link. Thanks! It really pulls together info from the UCI's multiple document sources and provides an excellent summary of how testing works.

ehmmm I guess it also highlights how much political bickering takes place from people and organizations who we'd hope would be on the same side