E3 Harelbeke, Friday 25th March 2016, 206.4km, WT

[PremierAndrew]

Four of the last ten winners of this race have gone on to win RVV.

Recent Winners:

2015 THOMAS Geraint
2014 SAGAN Peter
2013 CANCELLARA Fabian
2012 BOONEN Tom
2011 CANCELLARA Fabian
2010 CANCELLARA Fabian
2009 POZZATO Filippo
2008 ARVESEN Kurt Asle
2007 BOONEN Tom
2006 BOONEN Tom

Weather:

Expected to rain (~85%) earlier in the day, so cobbles may be wet. During the race itself, approximately 10% Chance of Rain, Tailwind of ~10mph expected during the first half, ~10mph headwind during the 2nd half

Starts at 12.21 CET.

Key Points:

Taaienberg (74.2km from the finish) expected at around 15.45 CET
Paterberg (42km from the finish) expected at around 16.30 CET
Oude Kwaremont (37.8km from the finish) expected at around 16.40 CET

Last year's race was won by Geraint Thomas after attacking over the Oude Kwaremont with Stybar. Sagan bridged over, and the 3 stayed clear, before Thomas soloed to victory with an attack 4km from the finish.

E3 2015:
1) Geraint Thomas
2) Zdenek Stybar +25
3) Matteo Trentin +38
4) Alexander Kristoff
5) Sep Vanmarcke
6) Matti Breschel
7) Jurgen Roelandts
8) Jack Bauer
9) Jens Keukeleire
10) Daniel Oss

E3 Harelbeke 2015 replay:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UVEvkW6n4c

2016 Provisional Start List:

AG2R La Mondiale
Gediminas Bagdonas, Nico Denz, Damien Gaudin, Alexis Gougeard, Hugo Houle, Quentin Jauregui, Jesse Sergent, Sébastien Turgot

Astana Pro Team
Laurens De Vreese, Lars Boom, Andrei Grivko, Dmitriy Gruzdev, Alexey Lutsenko, Gatis Smukulis, Ruslan Tleubayev, Lieuwe Westra

BMC Racing Team
Greg Van Avermaet, Marcus Burghardt, Jean-Pierre Drucker, Floris Gerts, Daniel Oss, Manuel Quinziato, Michael Schar, Stefan Küng

Cannondale Pro Cycling Team
Jack Bauer, Alberto Bettiol, Patrick Bevin, Matti Breschel, Sebastian Langeveld, Kristoffer Skjerping, Dylan van Baarle, Ryan Mullen

Dimension Data
Matthew Brammeier, Nick Dougall, Tyler Farrar, Reinardt J. van Rensburg, Mekseb Debesay, Mark Renshaw, Jay Robert Thomson

Etixx – Quick Step
Tom Boonen, Iljo Keisse, Łukasz Wiśniowski, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Matteo Trentin, Stijn Vandenbergh, Tony Martin

FDJ
Mickaël Delage, Arnaud Démare, Murilo Antonio Fischer, Marc Sarreau, Ignatas Konovalovas, Matthieu Ladagnous, Johan Le Bon, Olivier Le Gac

Giant – Alpecin
Bert De Backer, Zico Waeytens, Søren Kragh Andersen, Koen de Kort, Ramon Sinkeldam, Tom Stamsnijder, Albert Timmer, Roy Curvers

IAM Cycling
Dries Devenyns, Oliver Naesen, Heinrich Haussler, Reto Hollenstein, Vegard Stake Laengen, Sondre Holst Enger, Vicente Reynes, Aleksejs Saramotins

Lampre – Merida
Mattia Cattaneo, Chun Kai Feng, Roberto Ferrari, Marko Kump, Sacha Modolo, Luka Pibernik, Federico Zurlo, Gang Xu

Lotto Soudal
Jürgen Roelandts, Sean De Bie, Jasper De Buyst, Frederik Frison, Pim Ligthart, Tiesj Benoot, Marcel Sieberg, Jelle Wallays

LottoNL-Jumbo
Sep Vanmarcke, Maarten Wynants, Bram Tankink, Maarten Tjallingii, Twan Castelijns, Jos van Emden, Timo Roosen, Tom Leezer

Movistar Team
Jorge Arcas, Carlos Betancur, Nelson Oliveira, Antonio Pedrero, Juan José Lobato, Jasha Sütterlin, Andrey Amador, Francisco Ventoso

Orica GreenEDGE
Jens Keukeleire, Sam Bewley, Mitchell Docker, Luke Durbridge, Luka Mezgec, Magnus Cort, Svein Tuft

Team Katusha
Alexander Kristoff, Marco Haller, Alexander Porsev, Dmitry Kozonchuk, Sven Erik Bystrøm, Viacheslav Kuznetsov, Michael Mørkøv, Nils Politt

Team Sky
Ian Stannard, Michal Golas, Christian Knees, Salvatore Puccio, Luke Rowe, Andrew Fenn, Michal Kwiatkowski, Elia Viviani

Tinkoff
Peter Sagan, Juraj Sagan, Jay McCarthy, Maciej Bodnar, Oscar Gatto, Michael Gogl, Adam Blythe, Nikolay Trusov

Trek – Segafredo
Fabian Cancellara, Stijn Devolder, Boy van Poppel, Jasper Stuyven, Yaroslav Popovych, Gregory Rast, Markel Irizar, Marco Coledan

Bora-Argon 18
Shane Archbold, Sam Bennett, Zakkari Dempster, Ralf Matzka, Christoph Pfingsten, Andreas Schillinger, Rüdiger Selig, Scott Thwaites

Direct Energie
Sylvain Chavanel, Ryan Anderson, Antoine Duchesne, Yohann Gene, Fabien Grellier, Tony Hurel, Alexandre Pichot, Angelo Tulik

Fortuneo – Vital Concept
Boris Vallée, Vegard Breen, Yauheni Hutarovich, Benoit Jarrier, Daniel McLay, Arnaud Gerard, Steven Tronet, Florian Vachon

Roompot – Oranje Peloton
Jesper Asselman, Berden de Vries, Kai Reus, Tim Kerkhof, Michel Kreder, Wesley Kreder, Ivar Slik, Sjoerd van Ginneken

Southeast – Venezuela
Filippo Pozzato, Andrea dal Col, Matteo Draperi, Giuseppe Fonzi, Liam Bertazzo, Mirko Tedeschi, Mirko Trosino, Eugert Zhupa

Topsport Vlaanderen – Baloise
Preben Van Hecke, Moreno De pauw, Maxime Farazijn, Sander Helven, Stijn Steels, Tim Declercq, Jef Van Meirhaeghe, Pieter Vanspeybrouck

Wanty – Groupe Gobert
Frederik Backaert, Dimitri Claeys, Robin Stenuit, Kevin Van Melsen, Antoine Demoitie, Simone Antonini, Marco Marcato, Mark McNally

 

[Lexman]

looking forward to this race, pity it's on a workday...

curious to see where Boonen stands 10 days before Flanders...

Will Cancellara shows his max?

 

[PremierAndrew]

Find it interesting that Betancur is riding tomorrow

 

[May0maniac]

If it rains we probably won't see Pippo Pozzato at his best.
Trentin FTW!

 

[Tonton]

Hoping for a Cance, GVA, Sagan showdown. Stybar could be the spoiler, or Pippo. If it goes down to a sprint, which I think is unlikely: Demare and Krystoff 1-2 (maybe vice-versa).

 

[Mr.White]

I would really like Tom Boonen to win this race!

 

[SafeBet]

Here's hoping Trentin gets a chance to ride for himself.

 

[sir fly]

I won't be surprised if we see a rerun of this year's Omloop.
A (reduced) bunch sprint would be dull.

 

[tomorrow]

Hoping for a Cance, GVA, Sagan showdown. Stybar could be the spoiler, or Pippo. If it goes down to a sprint, which I think is unlikely: Demare and Krystoff 1-2 (maybe vice-versa).

Well, actually, at first I was a little afraid that they made it too easy, but
then I remembered Sagan is starting, so he will take care so the race doesn't end in bunch sprint, unfortunately, this effort will cost him the win, cause the decisive part is too far from the finish for him

 

[Ricco']

Why is EBH not starting?

Seems weird that someone who says that Roubaix is his main goal, he won't do any cobbles before.

 

[Escarabajo]

Betancur to teach those classic riders how a race is won!

 

[Flamin]

I love this race. Glad I have a day off tomorrow and that I can watch it live.

I expect a monster performance from Sep.

 

[Orbit501]

Re:

Why is EBH not starting?

Seems weird that someone who says that Roubaix is his main goal, he won't do any cobbles before.

Was set to start but is sick apparently.

 

[postmanhat]

Did someone say rain?

 

[Anderis]

Cannondale aren't sending Bauer and Breschel, two top10 finishers from last year. Strange.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Cannondale aren't sending Bauer and Breschel, two top10 finishers from last year. Strange.

Breschel has been sick. Don't know about Bauer.

 

[MortiroloForever]

Can't wait for this race.

Van Avermaet is on fire and I honestly think he is in the best form of his life (the attack he made last Wednesday was quite impressive). But Cancellara, as I say, is one of the most unpredictable riders on Earth and Etixx has a superteam to give support to "Stybi". Definitely, it's going to be a good cycling day!

P.D.: Crossing my fingers to watch a rainy race.

 

[TMP402]

I wonder why Kwiatkowski is here. I know he has done well on some small cobbled races but when Sky signed him to win a monument, I didn't figure it would be RVV or P-R.

 

[Poursuivant]

Ian Stannard ftw

 

[jaylew]

My favorite cobbled race after the two biggies. So glad it's a holiday.

Hard to look past GVA. I hope he doesn't run out of steam before the cobbled season is over.

Hoping for a Cance, GVA, Sagan showdown. Stybar could be the spoiler, or Pippo. If it goes down to a sprint, which I think is unlikely: Demare and Krystoff 1-2 (maybe vice-versa).

Well, actually, at first I was a little afraid that they made it too easy, but
then I remembered Sagan is starting, so he will take care so the race doesn't end in bunch sprint, unfortunately, this effort will cost him the win, cause the decisive part is too far from the finish for him

Did they change the parcours this year? I must have missed it. Did they take out some climbs?

Edit: Nvmd, I see the changes and remember reading about them. i guess I forgot.

***** No one
**** GVA, Cancellara, Sagan
*** Stybar, Benoot, Kristoff
** Terpstra, Roelandts
* Vanmarcke, Boonen, Stuyven, Kwia, Stannard

I really don't think anyone else can win but in the really off-chance that it ends in a ~30 man bunch sprint, I'll add:

1/2* Gaviria, Démare

 

[damian13ster]

Re:

***** GVA, Sagan
**** Cancellara, Kristoff
*** Stybar, Kwiatkowski, Boonen (yes, I still believe), Stannard, Terpstra

 

[Billie]

Tommmeke will obliterate the whole peloton on the Taaienberg and ride into Harelbeke solo. After the race there will be a long conference between the mayor, the governor, the prime minister and the bosses of Flanders classics after which they'll offically announce that the Taaienberg will be renamed to Boonenberg

 

[phanatic]

Re:

Tommmeke will obliterate the whole peloton on the Taaienberg and ride into Harelbeke solo. After the race there will be a long conference between the mayor, the governor, the prime minister and the bosses of Flanders classics after which they'll offically announce that the Taaienberg will be renamed to Boonenberg

Why a long conference?

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

My favorite cobbled race after the two biggies. So glad it's a holiday.

Hard to look past GVA. I hope he doesn't run out of steam before the cobbled season is over.

Hoping for a Cance, GVA, Sagan showdown. Stybar could be the spoiler, or Pippo. If it goes down to a sprint, which I think is unlikely: Demare and Krystoff 1-2 (maybe vice-versa).

Well, actually, at first I was a little afraid that they made it too easy, but
then I remembered Sagan is starting, so he will take care so the race doesn't end in bunch sprint, unfortunately, this effort will cost him the win, cause the decisive part is too far from the finish for him

Did they change the parcours this year? I must have missed it. Did they take out some climbs?

Edit: Nvmd, I see the changes and remember reading about them. i guess I forgot.

***** No one
**** GVA, Cancellara, Sagan
*** Stybar, Benoot, Kristoff
** Terpstra, Roelandts
* Vanmarcke, Boonen, Stuyven, Kwia, Stannard

I really don't think anyone else can win but in the really off-chance that it ends in a ~30 man bunch sprint, I'll add:

1/2* Gaviria, Démare

Why is Kwia above Demare? And surely Vanmarcke has to be higher. It's about time he had some good luck, and if Vanmarcke isn't unlucky, he has to be one of the top favourites

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

My favorite cobbled race after the two biggies. So glad it's a holiday.

Hard to look past GVA. I hope he doesn't run out of steam before the cobbled season is over.

Hoping for a Cance, GVA, Sagan showdown. Stybar could be the spoiler, or Pippo. If it goes down to a sprint, which I think is unlikely: Demare and Krystoff 1-2 (maybe vice-versa).

Well, actually, at first I was a little afraid that they made it too easy, but
then I remembered Sagan is starting, so he will take care so the race doesn't end in bunch sprint, unfortunately, this effort will cost him the win, cause the decisive part is too far from the finish for him

Did they change the parcours this year? I must have missed it. Did they take out some climbs?

Edit: Nvmd, I see the changes and remember reading about them. i guess I forgot.

***** No one
**** GVA, Cancellara, Sagan
*** Stybar, Benoot, Kristoff
** Terpstra, Roelandts
* Vanmarcke, Boonen, Stuyven, Kwia

I really don't think anyone else can win but in the really off-chance that it ends in a ~30 man bunch sprint, I'll add:

1/2* Gaviria, Démare

Why is Kwia above Demare?
And surely Vanmarcke has to be higher. It's about time he had some good luck, and if Vanmarcke isn't unlucky, he has to be one of the top favourites

Because I don't think there's much chance of a sprint. They've changed the course a bit, but E3 almost never ends in a decent-sized pack finish.

With Sep, I just don't have any real idea of his form. He hasn't really shown any cards this year and I wasn't putting together a list of top finishers, just rider's chances of winning and I find it really hard to imagine a scenario where Sep wins. He needs to be flying to win and we just haven't seen that.