FirstWeek TDF Rain Rain !! Cobbles!!

[boardhanger]

Weather - predicted rain for the Ardennes/Cobbles stages. Time gains. Times loss.

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?wealocations=wc:FRXX0145&q=Cambrai,+FRA+forecast:tenday

 

[dgodave]

I know you can "cobble something together", but can you cobble something apart? Like a bike race?
.

 

[Anonymous]

How do you say "rider protest" in French?

 

[Publicus]

A bit early to be predicting the weather over a week out. Things change.

 

[BroDeal]

How do you say "rider protest" in French?

The same way you do in Italian: Armstrong.

 

[boardhanger]

Weather is highy predictable. Group can get away on the Col de Stockeu heading into Spa. Not to mention the rest of those Ardenne roads famous for escapes. And then those 'slippery' roads of cobble into Arenberg Porte du Hainaut. 13.2 to be exact. More or less a quaters worth of Paris-Roubaix full extent. Fair play to LeTour Directorate Christian PRUDHOMME
for this opening week.

p.s

I know you can "cobble something together", but can you cobble something apart? Like a bike race?
.

Ask Alex Zulle who lost 6 + minutes on those cobbles what was the name 'Passage de Gaul' or something took out half the favourites was it '96 or 97?

 

[Publicus]

Weather is highy predictable.

You just lost all credibility with that one. The only thing predictable about the weather is that it is unpredictable.

 

[boardhanger]

You just lost all credibility with that one. The only thing predictable about the weather is that it is unpredictable.

Yet predictable enough that it changes stock markets, currency rates and war plans.

 

[Anonymous]

Yet predictable enough that it changes stock markets, currency rates and war plans.

Which themselves are wonderful examples of predictability...

The fact that weather men/women get to call themselves "meteorologists" and make anything above minimum wage is a crime.

 

[boardhanger]

Which themselves are wonderful examples of predictability...

The fact that weather men/women get to call themselves "meteorologists" and make anything above minimum wage is a crime.

Currently The US is 'wet and wild' with high and low pressures mixing creating strongs winds/severe hail/tornados/ and other types. The 'jet stream moves west to east for us northern hemispheries.......Britains current hot spell which low and behold on the western crest of Europe is sucking the US climate across and thru to guess where??? TDF terrority. Anyway we're off topic. What i'm at is that as usual the people are predicting the tour based on the mountains ( I understand that). But every so offen i.e Tour de France STAGE :1997, July 5-26
Stage 4, Plumelec - Le Puy du Fou, 223 kms
happens. Not that many Lance only fans would remember that???

 

[Anonymous]

Currently The US is 'wet and wild' with high and low pressures mixing creating strongs winds/severe hail/tornados/ and other types. The 'jet stream moves west to east for us northern hemispheries.......Britains current hot spell which low and behold on the western crest of Europe is sucking the US climate across and thru to guess where??? TDF terrority. Anyway we're off topic. What i'm at is that as usual the people are predicting the tour based on the mountains ( I understand that). But every so offen i.e Tour de France STAGE :1997, July 5-26
Stage 4, Plumelec - Le Puy du Fou, 223 kms
happens. Not that many Lance only fans would remember that???

Hey, I hope you are right, but that predictable weather pattern 10 days ago said that the place I am currently taking vacation was supposed to be 78 degrees today...its 91.

 

[Kingsley A]

Weather is actually very predictable when you are less than 24 hours out. For instance you can hit 70% accuracy simply by saying "the weather tomorrow will be much the same as today"

Whilst meteorology is far from an exact science a good team with sufficient data and computer time, such as London's Met Office, should be hitting better than 80% accuracy for 3 day forecasts.

Beyond three days though the accuracy plummets. For a seven day forecast you are looking at 50% accuracy at best. It continues to get lower as time moves out.

It can be quite fun, picking a time and place a couple of weeks out and watching how forecasts from various sources change as it gets nearer.

IOW, It may or may not be raining when the Tour hits the pave. We will have a better idea by the time the Prologue starts and will only know for sure on the day.

 

[Kingsley A]

Currently The US is 'wet and wild' with high and low pressures mixing creating strongs winds/severe hail/tornados/ and other types. The 'jet stream moves west to east for us northern hemispheries.......Britains current hot spell which low and behold on the western crest of Europe is sucking the US climate across and thru to guess where??? TDF terrority. Anyway we're off topic. What i'm at is that as usual the people are predicting the tour based on the mountains ( I understand that). But every so offen i.e Tour de France STAGE :1997, July 5-26
Stage 4, Plumelec - Le Puy du Fou, 223 kms
happens. Not that many Lance only fans would remember that???

WHAT?

The weather in the continental United States has no bearing whatsoever on the weather in continental Europe a week or so later!

There is a small body of water (sometimes called The Pond) between the two. The current known as the Gulf Stream or North Atlantic Drift is the primary factor in Western Europe's weather. The only exception where N. America tends to get hit first and then Europe get the fall out is hurricanes. And guess what? It is the Atlantic that both causes and transmits these.

Oceans and not land masses are far more important than land masses in determining weather for much of the globe. Another reason meteorology is such an imprecise science.

 

[boardhanger]

Fingers crossed for an exiticing first week. Not a parade untill the Tourmalet stage. If you think the weather is unpredictible......but not as predictible as the tour has become this last few years. Lets get back to old school racing with old school tatics. Lets 'Save the Sport" !! Radios Out oggy oggy oggy !! What do we want? R.A.D.I.O.S OUT !!

 

[Bala Verde]

I believe the weather in the Giro was suboptimal for a while. I doubt the 3.7km (?) of cobbles in the TdF with some rain will decide the podium on day 3 (?) ...

 

[boardhanger]

WHAT?

The weather in the continental United States has no bearing whatsoever on the weather in continental Europe a week or so later!

There is a small body of water (sometimes called The Pond) between the two. The current known as the Gulf Stream or North Atlantic Drift is the primary factor in Western Europe's weather. The only exception where N. America tends to get hit first and then Europe get the fall out is hurricanes. And guess what? It is the Atlantic that both causes and transmits these.

Oceans and not land masses are far more important than land masses in determining weather for much of the globe. Another reason meteorology is such an imprecise science.

Then again lets look at your predictions in previous post.

2010 Race Picks
Views: 2,897 Posted By Kingsley A
San Remo: Gilbert Flanders: Flecha ...

San Remo: Gilbert
Flanders: Flecha
Paris-Roubaix: Boonen
Fleche: Kirchen
Liege: F. Schleck
AGR: A. Schleck
Giro: Evans
Tour: Contador
Vuelta: Contador
Paris-Tours: Cavendish

W.T.F??

 

[mowie133]

I believe the weather in the Giro was suboptimal for a while. I doubt the 3.7km (?) of cobbles in the TdF with some rain will decide the podium on day 3 (?) ...

reckon it might,...so many riders fresh an looking to do something,i feel alot of riders going down,an chances are a big name or two might come down..don't forget cadel evans went down an lost no time but hurt his leg an back which cost him the tour

 

[Kingsley A]

Then again lets look at your predictions in previous post.

2010 Race Picks
Views: 2,897 Posted By Kingsley A
San Remo: Gilbert Flanders: Flecha ...

San Remo: Gilbert
Flanders: Flecha
Paris-Roubaix: Boonen
Fleche: Kirchen
Liege: F. Schleck
AGR: A. Schleck
Giro: Evans
Tour: Contador
Vuelta: Contador
Paris-Tours: Cavendish

W.T.F??

Yep, Cuddles getting fifth at the Giro was the best of that lot so far. Pretty poor on the whole. W/o looking back though I don't know how many posters did much better (and would be prepared to bet there were some that have done at least as badly).

I still think Contador will win the Tour and has a good shot at the Tour/Vuelta double if he goes for it. Cav still claims he is aiming for a late season peak and P-T can often come down to a sprint so it's far from implausible but ask me again after the Vuelta and I may well have changed my mind.

What that post shows is I am useless at predicting cycling results several months out. Plus the fact that that post was to do with cycling and my most recent two were to do with the vagaries of meteorology means the post I am responding to now is nothing more than an ad hominem, masquerading as a non sequitur.

I stand by my comments on weather forecasting being largely inaccurate if you go beyond 3 days, I still refute your claim that the current weather in N. America will have a direct effect on the weather in W. Europe in 10 days time and freely admit that the cycling predictions I made in February have turned out to be utter crap!

 

[ingsve]

Ask Alex Zulle who lost 6 + minutes on those cobbles what was the name 'Passage de Gaul' or something took out half the favourites was it '96 or 97?

Passage du Gois in 1999.

Incidently the passage will be back as the opening stage of next years Tour.

 

[kurtinsc]

I believe the weather in the Giro was suboptimal for a while. I doubt the 3.7km (?) of cobbles in the TdF with some rain will decide the podium on day 3 (?) ...

It's actually 13.2 km of cobbles or something like that. 10-ish of that in the last 27 km.

I'm guessing there will be some selection on the stage... and while I'm hoping it's significant, it may not be all that much between the better GC cobbled guys and the lesser guys. Most likely a crash would be the only thing that could have a drastic effect (but those do happen).

 

[ingsve]

Weather is actually very predictable when you are less than 24 hours out. For instance you can hit 70% accuracy simply by saying "the weather tomorrow will be much the same as today"

Whilst meteorology is far from an exact science a good team with sufficient data and computer time, such as London's Met Office, should be hitting better than 80% accuracy for 3 day forecasts.

Beyond three days though the accuracy plummets. For a seven day forecast you are looking at 50% accuracy at best. It continues to get lower as time moves out.

It can be quite fun, picking a time and place a couple of weeks out and watching how forecasts from various sources change as it gets nearer.

IOW, It may or may not be raining when the Tour hits the pave. We will have a better idea by the time the Prologue starts and will only know for sure on the day.

Well, "very predictable" is a relative term. Compared to other predictions in physics the weather is totally chaotic. What we can say is that weather can be predictable over a short timespan (few days) to a degree of accuracy that we accept for weather.

 

[flicker]

Johann has 50 C-130s fueled up and loaded with silver nitrate particles...

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Actually, NOAA is quite impressive, and filled with many scientific minds. One of the best US government agencies there is, and woefully underfunded. Most every meteorologist in the US gets most of it's data from NOAA.

As a comparison, it was NOAA that gave very precise predictions on Hurricane Katrina, it was the rest of the government that failed to properly prepare. FEMA, HSA, the rest of the Feds, plus the state and city governments all were pathetic in preparation and response.

I think the "7-day forecast" however is a gimmick. Even NOAA doesn't like posting more than 3 days out, aside from info on approaching weather patterns. But it's your local weather team, plus places like the Weather Channel, Accuweather, etc. who try to one-up each other by telling you what's going to happen a week in the future...and hope you forget what they said by the time it comes.

 

[boardhanger]

Weather

..............at the end of the day I believe the forecasters, Not armchair know-alls. Vive le tour! Its seem they've increase the rain somewhat once again....... http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/tenday/FRXX0076

 

[auscyclefan94]

The same way you do in Italian: Armstrong.

That is if he gets caught behind.

I believe the weather in the Giro was suboptimal for a while. I doubt the 3.7km (?) of cobbles in the TdF with some rain will decide the podium on day 3 (?) ...

Uh...no.

Even if there were only 5 kms of cobbles it will effect the gc dramatically as 200 guys which some of those have never ridden on cobbles before all going through those sections as a big bunch on some roads which are only a handful of metres wide!