Future GT Winner (Edition 2024)

[Pantani_lives]

Welcome to the thirteenth edition of this yearly poll in which the forum tries to predict who will win a Grand Tour in the future. Last year Juan Ayuso won the poll for the second time in a row. Can he do it a third time or will someone beat him?

So which of these cyclists are most likely to win a GT at some point in their career? You have multiple votes. If you have riders in mind who aren't listed, you can mention them in the thread.

Past winners of this poll:

2012 Christopher Froome (won Tour 2013)
2013 Nairo Quintana (won Giro 2014)
2014 Fabio Aru (won Vuelta 2015)
2015 Mikel Landa
2016 Esteban Chaves
2017 Mikel Landa
2018 Egan Bernal (won Tour 2019)
2019 Tadej Pogačar (won Tour 2020)
2020 Remco Evenepoel (won Vuelta 2022)
2021 Jonas Vingegaard (won Tour 2022)
2022 Juan Ayuso
2023 Juan Ayuso
2024 ???

 

[Potomac]

WTF...I was first to vote?

I chose two:
Tiberi and Skjelmose


I would say Jorgenson, but I still think he is too heavy.

BOC just hit his high water mark for his career.

Edit:

Adam Yates not on the poll? I'm not a fan but he is always a top 10 threat.

 

[Berniece]

From that list I can only see Ayuso win a GT, maybe Tiberi but still a lot of development left. Rodriguez could win it to if he didn't go for the TDF, but all out for Giro or Vuelta and no one of the big 4 is there.

 

[Rackham]

Lipowitz.

He's in a big team and he achieved 7th in the first GT he finished whilst doing domestique work for his leader Rog.

He was very impressive. He's also got a decent ITT as well (14th yesterday whilst riding with illness).

 

[Peyroteo94]

There isn't an option for no one?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Basically everything boils down to who isn't racing against any of the big 4-soon-to-be-3, because nobody is closing that gap any time soon. The first big question is who's going to the Giro next year, because that looks to be the first time in 3 years where none of the aliens are there. This is also why I don't think voting for nobody is a reasonable option, there are only so many GTs such a small group of riders will collectively finish.

The first place to look is UAE, because Ayuso (assuming he stays) and Almeida won't be mirroring Pogacar's schedule every time and when Roglic ages out, you would expect either Giro or Vuelta to be available in any given year. I assume UAE are sending at least one of them + Yates to the Giro next year, so that's a good opportunity. Based on age, Ayuso should have more opportunities left, so I think he's a bit more likely.

Everyone else - not that likely. The odds of Mas snagging a Vuelta are declining annually, I think Martinez won't top his Giro level, Rodriguez and Tiberi need improvement and especially the former might not be doing the best schedule. The other four probably have no shot, don't know what Gaudu in particular is doing anywhere near this poll when you have Adam Yates who is likelier no matter what and the likes of Del Toro, Nordhagen, Torres, Widar, and so on who we don't know the ceiling of yet.

 

[Brullnux]

I'm not sure any of these are as good as Remco/Vingo/Pogacar/Roglic in front of them or even Withen Philipsen/Torres/Nordhagen/Del Toro/Widar behind them.

Almeida and Ayuso have a chance at the Giro next year if the top four don't turn up, maybe Rodriguez in a couple of years and maybe Lipowitz but it'll be a bit of a Hindley victory.

 

[Brullnux]

Basically everything boils down to who isn't racing against any of the big 4-soon-to-be-3, because nobody is closing that gap any time soon. The first big question is who's going to the Giro next year, because that looks to be the first time in 3 years where none of the aliens are there. This is also why I don't think voting for nobody is a reasonable option, there are only so many GTs such a small group of riders will collectively finish.

The first place to look is UAE, because Ayuso (assuming he stays) and Almeida won't be mirroring Pogacar's schedule every time and when Roglic ages out, you would expect either Giro or Vuelta to be available in any given year. I assume UAE are sending at least one of them + Yates to the Giro next year, so that's a good opportunity. Based on age, Ayuso should have more opportunities left, so I think he's a bit more likely.

Everyone else - not that likely. The odds of Mas snagging a Vuelta are declining annually, I think Martinez won't top his Giro level, Rodriguez and Tiberi need improvement and especially the former might not be doing the best schedule. The other four probably have no shot, don't know what Gaudu in particular is doing anywhere near this poll when you have Adam Yates who is likelier no matter what and the likes of Del Toro, Nordhagen, Torres, Widar, and so on who we don't know the ceiling of yet.

Exactly, it's an extremely difficult question to answer because it's based more on schedule (often of others) than ability. It could well be that the only second/third tier guys who turn up to a Giro are Tiberi, Martinez, and Skjelmose and it's one or those three, even if they aren't by any stretch the best GT riders there.

 

[Red Rick]

Del Toro is a better bet than 80% of this poll

 

[Ilmaestro99]

What a bunch of Mickey mouse riders. My vote is for Mikel Landa

 

[tobydawq]

Where are Alaphilippe, Kruijswijk and Buchmann?

 

[ingsve]

Since I don't believe the top Tour riders will attempt the Giro double every year if ever again then the Giro should be fairly open to other winners and a rider like Tiberi will likely always be there so I could see him winning it at some point. Then again the next year of the cat is in 2035 when Tiberi is 34 so he might decline by then.

Also since Ayuso is still young I could easily see him winning a Vuelta at some point depending on how the others feel after riding the Tour each year.

They'll have to hurry though because in just a few years Jörgen Nordhagen will start winning all 3 GTs each season. He'll also combine it with winning Tour de Ski in winter.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Riders who won their first GT (after 2012) but didn't win this poll

Christopher Horner - 2013 vuelta
Tom Dumolin -2017 giro
Gerant Thomas - 2018 tour
Simon Yates -2018 veulta
Richard carapax - 2019 giro
Primoz Roglic -2019 veulta
Tao geoghen hart - 2020 giro
Jay hindley - 2022 giro
Sep kiss - 2023 vuelta

After the 2018 giro, there were 7 straight grand tours won by 'first-timers', until Roglic defended his vielta title in 2020

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

WTF...I was first to vote?

I chose two:
Tiberi and Skjelmose


I would say Jorgenson, but I still think he is too heavy.

BOC just hit his high water mark for his career.

Edit:

Adam Yates not on the poll? I'm not a fan but he is always a top 10 threat.

Jorgenson will always be too heavy. I can only think of 1 rider his length that ever won the TDF, and that's Wiggins, who won because his stronger teammate was ordered to wait for him every time the road went up.

Maybe he could win a GT once, if everything falls into place. But i hope he keeps doing a varied schedule, because i think his biggest strength lies in classics.

Skjelmose surprised me this Vuelta, but honestly, he wouldn't have made the top 10 in the TDF with this level. And unlike some others, he's already skin 'n bones, and i doubt he has a lot of upside left.

 

[SafeBet]

Voted Ayuso, Almeida and Lipowitz but I'm not particularly confident in any of them.
Ayuso showed impressive potential early in his career but has since stalled. It's not clear how much he can still improve + his attitude might become a problem.
Almeida has the clearer path to a Giro / Vuelta win but possibly lacking the top end talent to do it.
Lipowitz has the "new to the game" factor that gives me hope, although I'm not sure if he'll ever be an elite climber.

Tiberi and Skjelmose rode their first GT attempt (for GC) in very similar fashion: good TTing, tempo riding on the climbs, never flashy. I'd give them roughly the same chances of winning one in the future. Not more than 25%.

Gaudu, O'Connor and Martinez are not getting higher than a podium spot.

Mas and C-Rod would benefit from different schedules, but being Spanish will likely limit their chances.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So which of these cyclists are most likely to win a GT at some point in their career? You have multiple votes. If you have riders in mind who aren't listed, you can mention them in the thread.

Quite a peculiar choice of riders tbf. I see a few riders who imho have already proven they will never be able to win a GT considering their age unless lightning strikes twice. Yet you didn't include Jorgenson (who's TDF showing was better than half the list you posted), Del Toro, Uijtdebroeks, Arensman, Van Eetvelt... have all shown flashes this or past years and were ultimately unlucky with their health or subpar preparation.

Voted Ayuso, Almeida and Lipowitz but I'm not particularly confident in any of them.
Ayuso showed impressive potential early in his career but has since stalled. It's not clear how much he can still improve + his attitude might become a problem.
Almeida has the clearer path to a Giro / Vuelta win but possibly lacking the top end talent to do it.
Lipowitz has the "new to the game" factor that gives me hope, although I'm not sure if he'll ever be an elite climber.

Tiberi and Skjelmose rode their first GT attempt (for GC) in very similar fashion: good TTing, tempo riding on the climbs, never flashy. I'd give them roughly the same chances of winning one in the future. Not more than 25%.

Gaudu, O'Connor and Martinez are not getting higher than a podium spot.

Mas and C-Rod would benefit from different schedules, but being Spanish will likely limit their chances.

This wasn't Skjelmose's first attempt at a GT GC.

 

[Bolder]

Where are Alaphilippe, Kruijswijk and Buchmann?

It's not 2018 anymore.

I voted Tiberi and Almeida. TTing is still key and both these guys are pretty good at it.

Tiberi is hungry and ready to prove that he's more than just a domestic animal killer. Almeida would have challenged Rog at the Vuelta this year.

 

[proffate]

Kind of unfair that dani martinez has zero votes given that he got 2nd to Pog in a Giro. I mean I didn't vote for him, but maybe I should have.

Ultimately, if TGH can win a GT, then anybody on this list can theoretically also time a career-best superpeak with an unusually weak GT field. Except Mas, who is inherently incapable of victory regardless of his level.

 

[tobydawq]

Riders who won their first GT (after 2012) but didn't win this poll

Christopher Horner - 2013 vuelta
Tom Dumolin -2017 giro
Gerant Thomas - 2018 tour
Simon Yates -2018 veulta
Richard carapax - 2019 giro
Primoz Roglic -2019 veulta
Tao geoghen hart - 2020 giro
Jay hindley - 2022 giro
Sep kiss - 2023 vuelta

After the 2018 giro, there were 7 straight grand tours won by 'first-timers', until Roglic defended his vielta title in 2020

A bit mind-blowing that Roglic didn't win this poll...

 

[Red Rick]

A bit mind-blowing that Roglic didn't win this poll...

Losing it to Bernal makes sense at the time tbh.

Not even Jumbo backed Roglic to win the Tour the year after his poll

 

[Ilmaestro99]

A bit mind-blowing that Roglic didn't win this poll...

Looking back 2018-19 was a weird time for the sport.

From what I remember, before the 2019 vuelta Roglic was seen as a more talented version of a Richie porter type rider? People were not convinced by his ability to last 3 weeks, i think that was one of the main narratives from the 2019 giro. But we forget these things

Anyway he was 28 with one 4th overall as his best GT result

And meanwhile bernal was 21 and winning WT stage races, which was much more unusual six years ago then it is now. They hype around him at that time was insane

 

[tobydawq]

Losing it to Bernal makes sense at the time tbh.

Not even Jumbo backed Roglic to win the Tour the year after his poll

Maybe, but losing to Landa in 2017?

 

[Red Rick]

Maybe, but losing to Landa in 2017?

Toby I don't think your mind is ready for the fact that he got 3rd behind Mas in 2018.

 

[Pinot's goat]

Why is O'Connor in this poll? He was barely in the top 10 strongest in La Vuelta and finished 4th in the weakest Giro depth for some time. Gee, Gall, Riccitello, Del Toro and Landa are all far more likely.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Based on trajectory and out of all the riders in the poll, Lipowitz.

Outside the poll and not counting devo/jrs, VPP, Castrillo and Poole showed some potential, not to win outright, but consistently high level not riding GC suggests the ability to at least get a decent finish in the future. If he wants to do a Derek Gee for Israel, Blackmore is a serious racer and has an absolute tonne of weight he can shift, his first GT will probably be next year so will depend on how he holds up for 3 weeks.

Think the real challenges to Vingegaard/Pogacar Tour-wise seem more likely to come from outside the current crop, there are too many insane young talents around at the moment for at least one not to properly crack on. Though I will say that I think Evenepoel's season was a positive in this regard, he showed real improvement, good signs but more work to do.