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GC Watch: Post TTT

Who will win now?

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    Votes: 0 0.0%

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Jun 22, 2009
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Figured it would be nice to have a place to talk about the GC, post TTT.

Armstrong 0.00
Contador 0.19
Kloden 0.23
Levi 0.31
VdV 1.16
Kreuziger 1.31
Rogers 1.32
AndySchleck 1.41
Frank 2.17
Sastre 2.44
Cadel 2.59
Menchov 3.52

(^ Courtesy of dimspace)

After the TTT what are your thoughts on the GC now? Who will win?

Astana surely can't lose it...
 
Jun 22, 2009
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RhodriM said:
Menchov to win the last TT by 10 minutes and attack on the Ventoux just for fun.

You heard it here first.





:(

Hahaha i feel your pain. I can't believe i put money on rabo to win the TTT :D I've been an ignorant optimistic.

I've giving up on the yellow, come on gesink for white :D
 
Jul 3, 2009
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I think it's safe to say, even at this early stage, that the game is up for Cadel and Menchov. I just can't see any way that they will make up their current defecit.

Sastre is more than capable of making up a couple of minutes when the road goes skywards so it will be interesting to see how the GC has changed once we get to Andorra.

Today we witnessed a display of pure power by Astana during the TTT but that in itself will not win the tour. There are only 3 mountain top finishes this year and only 2 of those are HC so I think that these stages are where the main contenders will have to put the knife in. As with most years the damage will be done when the road goes upwards.
 
May 13, 2009
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Let me just add a few:
----- Cancellara (Saxo)
0:00 Armstrong (Astana I)
0:19 Contador (Astana II)
0:23 Kloden (Astana ?)
0:31 Levi (Astana I)
0:52 Tony Martin (Columbia)
1:16 VdV (Garmin)
1:31 Kreuziger (Liquigas)
1:32 Rogers (Columbia)
1:36 Nibali (Liquigas)
1:41 A. Schleck (Saxo)
2:16 Kirchen (Columbia)
2:17 F. Schleck (Saxo)
2:44 Sastre (Cervelo)
2:59 Cadel (Silence)
3:52 Menchov (Rabo)

Sure, Sastre, Cadel and Menchov look cooked. Likely lost any chance already. Leaky and Saxo (and possibly Columbia) still look reasonable. At least for second/podium. Bertie might have won it today already.
 
A

Anonymous

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this will really really upset the aussies..

from twitter
mcewenrobbieI'm sure @Lancearmstrong did that on purpose to leave cancellara in the jersey. He sat up in last 50m. Nice. I repeat, LA will win

i suppose i could have started a new "robbie mckewan tips LA to win the tour" thread couldnt i.. :D
 
Jun 22, 2009
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dimspace said:
this will really really upset the aussies..

from twitter
mcewenrobbieI'm sure @Lancearmstrong did that on purpose to leave cancellara in the jersey. He sat up in last 50m. Nice. I repeat, LA will win

i suppose i could have started a new "robbie mckewan tips LA to win the tour" thread couldnt i.. :D

don't think we wont send a certificate your way :p

Agree that Menchov and Evans are practically out of it. Evans more unlucky then Menchiv, considering a lot of Meenchov's time loss so far is to his own merit.
 
You left out Vande Velde...

Actually, I don't think he'll win, and I'm not about to make any assumptions on whether or not he is back on form yet.

But... he's looked a lot stronger than I thought he would, after that crash in the Giro. If he was a bad as had been thought, then he would not have been one of the four Garmin riders left working the entire time trial.

As I said before, I doubt he is going to dethrone Contador or Armstrong, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him finish ahead of a couple of names listed above in the poll.
 
Kinda sucks that Evans and Menchov are pretty much screwed after only 4 stages. I'm not a fan of either rider but I like a good race. Menchov clearly looks fried from the Giro but his team failed him today in the TTT. Evans team failed him as well but I think we're all used to that occurence at this point and have come to expect it.

This is going to be one heck of a fight between Armstrong and Bertador regardless of Astana trying to play down the rift. I do think Contador will drop Lance in the mountains but we shall see on Friday of course.
 
Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
Figured it would be nice to have a place to talk about the GC, post TTT.

Armstrong 0.00
Contador 0.19
Kloden 0.23
Levi 0.31
VdV 1.16
Kreuziger 1.31
Rogers 1.32
AndySchleck 1.41
Frank 2.17
Sastre 2.44
Cadel 2.59
Menchov 3.52

(^ Courtesy of dimspace)

After the TTT what are your thoughts on the GC now? Who will win?

Astana surely can't lose it...
The only question is which of the four - AC, LA, LL, AK -- will NOT be on the podium - for it looks like 3 of the 4 will be there.
 
Jul 3, 2009
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BikeCentric said:
And the Col de Joux-Plane springs to mind for Armstrong. No one is immune to a bad day in the mountains.

Too true....but nobody mentioned Armstrong?:rolleyes: The original thought was about Sastre making up time in the mountains.....to which someone pointed out that Contador would have to have a really bad day......to which I replied that it has been known.......?

But then if you had read the previous posts, instead of assuming that I was in some way backing LA you would know that:rolleyes:..........is that a safe assumption to make?.....or have I mis-understood my own post perhaps;)
 
Pot Belgique said:
Too true....but nobody mentioned Armstrong?:rolleyes: The original thought was about Sastre making up time in the mountains.....to which someone pointed out that Contador would have to have a really bad day......to which I replied that it has been known.......?

But then if you had read the previous posts, instead of assuming that I was in some way backing LA you would know that:rolleyes:..........is that a safe assumption to make?.....or have I mis-understood my own post perhaps;)

No I was just making the point that even very consistent riders like LA have bad days in the mountains sometimes. Menchov last year as another example. If it happens to Contador again like in Paris Nice we'll have one heck of a tight race.
 
BikeCentric said:
No I was just making the point that even very consistent riders like LA have bad days in the mountains sometimes. Menchov last year as another example. If it happens to Contador again like in Paris Nice we'll have one heck of a tight race.

And of course Leipheimer in the Giro this year for another example.
 
Jul 3, 2009
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My point exactly, I hope we see someone like Sastre taking advantage of somebody elses bad day at the office and gaining a couple of minutes.

Nobody wants to see a procession so it's up to the other teams to attack Astana....they aint gonna win anything by waiting.
 
Apr 11, 2009
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Yes, the depth is a BIG problem. They can mark just about anybody, then counter-attack.

How could the other teams cooperate? Ever been done systematically?
 
Apr 24, 2009
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Ninety5rpm said:
Only if Contador is having a really bad day.

Maybe that's the new conspiracy. Sastre, in revenge for Armstrong's comments after the 2008, attacks hard in the mountains, hoping that only Contador is strong enough to follow. Sastre knows he can't win, but wants to blow it up for LA anyhow.

Works for me.
 
Apr 11, 2009
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Azdak6 said:
Maybe that's the new conspiracy. Sastre, in revenge for Armstrong's comments after the 2008, attacks hard in the mountains, hoping that only Contador is strong enough to follow. Sastre knows he can't win, but wants to blow it up for LA anyhow.

Works for me.

Now that is interesting. Makes sense.

I would think the best way for Contador to stamp authority on the team is by going early with the early attacks (to pre-empt Lance from doing so), and counter-attacking someone like a Schleck or Sastre. That is, he will use or piggyback off the attacks of others early to establish his team leadership.

There's gonna be consternation if Lance is the guy who marks a Schleck attack, with Alberto hanging back.