Giro d'Italia Giro D'italia 2025 Stage 16: Piazzola sul Brenta – San Valentino

Big thanks to @Devil's Elbow

Stage 16: Piazzola sul Brenta – San Valentino​

The queen stage. Yes, stage 19 has marginally more elevation gain and stage 20 has a much bigger climb, but this one wins the eye test. And it’s an exciting design to boot.

Map and profile

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Start

Four days after finishing there, the riders are just 20 kilometres away from Vicenza, in the small town of Piazzola sul Brenta, likely founded in the 13th century. It is somewhat dominated by the palatial Villa Contarini, one of the largest Venetian villas. The villa was originally built in the mid-16th century (possibly a Palladio design, although this is disputed), but most of the modern structure is 17th-century Baroque. In the 19th century, the villa was the seat of the Camerini family, who heavily invested in industrializing Piazzola. This status of relatively advanced development has long since been lost and aside from the villa, there is little to separate it from your average small Po valley town.

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I sadly can’t find a picture I can legally use that truly captures the scale of the villa, but the main façade is impressive in its own right. (picture by Semolo75 at Wikimedia Commons)

Route

There is a bit of ground to cover between the start and the foot of the Alps, 39.2 kilometres in the direction they’re going to be precise. Quite literally at the bottom of the mountains, there is an intermediate sprint, in Piovene Rocchette. However, we then have another 25 kilometres of valley road until the first actual climb, Carbonare. The KOM is 3.6 kilometres before the end of the profile below, where they continue going north onto a short plateau rather than turning west to keep climbing.

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The ensuing descent is long, but also very gradual and straightforward. It ends in Trento, the capital of Trentino and the site of the 16th-century Council of Trento, which formed shaped the Catholic response to the Protestant Reformation. In the Giro, a visit to Trento usually means it’s time to climb Monte Bondone, but that’s only half-true here… literally. Sure, the route starts heading up the classic side, but rather than climbing it in full, we only go as far as Candriai. Once again there’s a profile in the roadbook but not on the site, so enjoy another grainy screenshot.

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After the easy descent, the road heads gently uphill towards Passo San Udalrico, 10.0 kilometres at a herculean 2.7% with the intermediate sprint in Cavedine two-thirds of the way up. I can only find a profile of the second half of the climb.

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The descent brings the riders very close to Lake Garda, and indeed the route reaches as far as Arco, northernmost of the main tourist towns around the lake. However, rather than reaching the shoreline, the riders head east here, onto the hardest climb of the day. Passo di Santa Barbara was last seen two years ago on the way to Monte Bondone, but this time it carries a lot more weight.

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The narrow, twisty forest road used for the climb might lead the riders to expect a difficult descent, but this side of the pass is the more straightforward one in all aspects. The flat after the climb lasts all of 3.4 kilometres, then it’s on to the MTF. Now, if you’re going to put your biggest MTF on your queen stage, you should either have a harder climb backing into it or the kind of MTF that doesn’t reward the waiting game. Here, the Giro has done both: while difficult, it’s not as testing as Santa Barbara, and the steep section ends with 4.7 kilometres to go. Oh, and the bonification sprint is in a very silly spot part way up the climb.

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Finish

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Brentonico is a small town on the slopes of the Baldo massif. In Roman times, there was a fort where the town is now and the yellow marble quarries were likely first in operation during this time (probably being used in the Grottoes of Catullus on Lake Garda). Quarrying resumed after the area came under Venetian control in the 15th century, and together with agriculture was the main economic pillar of the local economy for centuries. The Italian Front ran through the modern municipal limits, but the Baldo massif was never the scene of major offensive action and thus Brentonico was spared of the scale of destruction seen in places like Asiago. Mining activity ceased in the 1980s, but by this time tourism had surged, with the development of a mid-sized ski resort around San Valentino (where we finish) and Polsa on the one hand and the proximity to Lake Garda on the other hand being the key factors. The subsequent growth also led to a number of villages clustering together to become the town of Brentonico. It has hosted the Giro three times before, always at Polsa rather than the harder San Valentino, most recently in 2013 when Vincenzo Nibali won the MTT.

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Brentonico, not the small ski station at San Valentino (picture by Syrio at Wikimedia Commons)

What to expect?

Considering the lack of clear opportunities to force the issue on the climbs in this Giro, the riders really should grab this one with both hands. It is quite possible the race explodes on the penultimate climb, and if not then the fireworks should still start fairly early on the MTF. If neither happens, then there just isn’t much hope for this bunch…
 
Well if del Toro doesn't lose time here that will deflate the rest.

Roglic seems hurt so I am not expecting much.

Ayuso is watching his chance of winning a grand tour disappear before his eyes. I'd still like to see him surprise me.

My heart would love to see Bernal do something. He has certainly been trying but maybe lacks that little bit extra.

Who knows, maybe Carapaz FTW (he has been keeping a low profile) and del Toro to keep his grip on pink?
 
Really hard stage. It's so weird to go into the final week and not really know the pecking order of the climbers. Maybe I have a gut feeling but there hasn't been a stage with everyone on their own riding to the top of a HC climb with all the strengths they have left. As a result I feel like we're in for some surprises.

Really hope Roglic continues and is in somewhat decent shape. The third week will be a lot more interesting with him still around.
 
Any rider that believes in his chances to win Pink and that isn't riding for UAE should go let his team go all out from the start. You need to test Del Toro on a stage like this, you need to see if you can gain time on him, and you need to make the whole GT as hard as possible if you want him to crack.

Visma should send WVA, Affini, Kruijswijk in the attack and leave Kelderman with Yates. Make a move like you would do in the TDF.