Giro - Finally some seperation to look forward with...

[benpounder]

It only took a week and a half, but after today's TT, we have a better idea of who the contenders and pretenders are. Clearly, Denis Menchov and Levi Leipheimer, with no further time gaps would be the favorites going into the final stage. That means Danilo Di Luca must make up time on the remaining 4 uphill finishes. Franco Pellizotti looks to be Liquigas's best chance, but at 1:20 behind third place Leipheimer (1:26 behind Di Luca) it will be hard for him to get away. Sastre, Rogers, and Basso are 3 minutes behind Menchov, and would have to do something really special to make up that time. #8 Simoni, at +4:38 might have an opportunity to get away, as will the several strong riders behind, but it will be on a short leash.

In terms of who is sitting pretty, obviously Menchov. BUT his team will be put under much pressure, and will likely show poorly. Denis is riding too strong for this to be too much an impediment. Di Luca is likely feeling like the chicken with two foxes in the henhouse. Any attack he makes will be countered by not just Denis (and Rabobank) and Levi (and Astana), but Franco and Liquigas as well.

I'd say Levi is just where he wants to be, except that Denis is 40 seconds in front. He will not make up that much of a margin in the final 14km TT. But, unlike the other top three, Levi and Astana can focus primarily on Rabobank. Franco probably is in a conundrum in that he is so close but only 1 minute ahead of teammate Ivan Basso. Does he let Basso attack freely, or will he try and tag along and likely drag another threat along with him?

At this point, I'd count Michael Rogers out of the podium race. While close on the uphill stages, he has never-the-less been dropped by the leaders on virtually every finishing climb. Besides, Columbia had a minor melt-down today (in terms of what was expected of them). Columbia has had a great Giro, but if they get greedy (other than tomorrows sprint stage) they will likely blow themselves up. Carlos Sastre will have the opportunity to do some damage on the uphill finishes, but none are long nor steep enough to give him an advantage. Additionally, his team has been and will continue to be non-existant in this Giro. Ivan Basso has the same dilemna that faces Franco, except Ivan is the one behind.

Gilberto Simoni, at +4.38 with a very strong Diquigiovanni team behind, will be the most likely to really animate the mountain stages. Marzio Bruseghin (+5.26) is the man for Lampre, not Damiano Cunego (+.8.18). Thomas Lovkvist (+5.53) would be wise to ride only for the white jersey.

In all, I think the race is Denis verses Astana, and Levi verses Denis (Danilo verses Astana, Rabobank and Liquigas, and Franco verses Ivan). This isn't the Tour of France, so Astana's team strength won't be as effective against the incredibly strong Menchov. If Levi wants to win this (beat Denis), he will have to do it on his own

 

[ingsve]

I'd say the advantage right now is with Danilo di Luca for a few reasons. First of all he did alot better than I think most of his competitors and esepcialöly Levi had thought and hoped for. Most importantly though is that there are lots of bonus seconds to be made in the uphill finishes. The question is how much power he has left for the last week considering the racing he has done so far.

Menchov should have a slight edge over Leipheimer as well. He's the slightly more aggressive one and has a better chance at gaining bonus seconds over Levi. His crucial moments will be when he is alone and the others decide to take advantage of that and he can't handle all attacks himself.

There are still several minutes to be gained from attacks even by riders further back. I think Sastre will attack for sure and perhaps even win one of the upphill finishes but it might take more than one such win to gain enough time for him to win.

 

[Escarabajo]

Somehow I get the feeling that Menchov needs a better team. The other riders are just too close. These teams have double cards to play and it will require a good team to defend:

Astana: Levi, Lance and Popo.
Serramenti PVC Diquigiovanni-Androni Giocattoli: Simoni, Serpa and Scarponi.
Liquigas: Basso, Pellizoti.

You don't need the teams in the high mountains but in the medium mountains like next Saturday and Sunday.

Thanks.

 

[benpounder]

Most importantly though is that there are lots of bonus seconds to be made in the uphill finishes.

Good point - and one that I had forgotten to consider. Edge definetly to Menchov and Di Luca. But there are others that will be looking for those precious seconds - Pellizotti, Sastre, Simoni should be in the fray if the tete de la course is a large group. Also, Menchov does not need to battle for seconds thus will not be willing to send his team up the road to pull back a break 20+ minutes down on GC - and neither will Astana. (I wouldnt be surprised to see Popo or Brajkovic in several of those breaks)

Rabobank will be content to control the race up until the fiinal climb, Astana will wait till then and try and use team strength to shell others off the back. Cervelo is... a non factor. That means Liquigas, Lampre, Columbia, Diquigiovanni, or LPR will have to do the brunt of the work to pull back breaks. Given how far Rogers, Lovkvist, and Cunego have fallen, do you think either Columbia or Lampre will work for a leader who cant finish? Who would Liquigas be riding for? LPR, not the strongest to begin with is likely tired from 11 stages of protecting Di Luca. And I'd wager that Diquigiovanni (with Scarponi, Serpa, Rodriguez or Ochoa) will be represented in most breaks.

 

[Leopejo]

Rabobank is weak, but it will find plenty of help, starting with Astana, in the first stages. Menchov won't need help after the Monte Petrano stage, as it will be final climbs only in the Blockhaus and Mt. Vesuvius stages.

Leipheimer has to attack Menchov. We'll finally see if he only is a wheelsucker (the Bergamo stage aside).

Di Luca is the strongest, and if he continues like this, he will win the Giro in my opinion. But will he continue like this? Does he have 3 weeks in his legs?

Basso was the biggest disappointment for me yesterday. Liquigas has the advantage of numbers, but will it be a help? Liquigas can/should get allied with LPR (and Diquigiovanni, and Amica Chips, etc.).

Hmm, more questions than answers from me

 

[benpounder]

And with a bit more seperation (and closing on Pellizotti's part) I think what we can expect is a full blown Astana/Disco/USPostal mountain train come Monday. As shown today, Levi does not have the pure climber talent of surging on a climb. The only way I see Levi doing something is to put his team on the front over the two climbs before Monte Petrano. Monte Nerone and Monte Catria are the well suited for this kind of team tactics, and Petrano looks to fit well with Levi's style - consistant pitch and just long enough.

Menchov should be able to hang, even without teammates. Di Luca should be able to hang - based on how well he has ridden thus far. In fact, I dont see much of a change, but I don't think Levi has many other options.