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Grand Tour winners in the peloton today

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Rollthedice

Rollthedice

May 11, 2013
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We have a new kid to join the select club of Grand Tour winners who are still active, the 8th. I considered the breakthrough for all, the first top 10 achieved.

First the younger one:

Simon Yates, breakthrough at 24 in 2016, 6th Vuelta, first GT win at 26 in Vuelta 2018

Then the 1990 generation:

Dumoulin breakthrough at 24 in 2015, 6th Vuelta, first GT win at 26 in Giro 2017
Quintana breakthrough at 23 in 2013 second in Le Tour, first GT win at 24 in Giro 2014
Aru breakthough at 23 in 2014 third in the Giro, first GT win Vuelta at 25 in 2015

The older generation:

Froome breathrough at 26 in 2011 second in Vuelta, first GT win at 28 in Le Tour 2013
Nibali breakthough at 24 in 2009 6th in Le Tour, first GT win at 25 in Vuelta 2010
Valverde breathrough at 23, third in Vuelta 2003, first GT win at 29 in Vuelta 2009
Thomas breathrough at 32 first win at 32, Le Tour 2018
 
Y

YavorD

Jul 8, 2017
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Out of Mas/MAL I see just Bernal as (almost) sure GT winner, okay and maybe Jumper man Roglic.
But then again who would have thought some years ago that Dumo, Simon and Thomas will be GT winners in 2017-18 ?
So maybe we'll have new kid in the block. I see some french guys as suspects.
 
Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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I have my doubts about MAL cause I dont really think he was better in any GT this year than he was during his wins last year, except for 1 stage. He's a pure climber who needs to win in the mountains and yet he's been really unable to make any big difference there.

There's a huge difference between riders who can top 5/podium and riders who actually end up winning them, although the competition in GTs does vary a bit, both within a year, and over the years.

Honestly, I think Froome and Nibali have one more year left at the top in GTs, after that it will be very interesting how things change. Thomas (lol), is also 33 next year so he only has a very short window where he actually competes.

I kinda really want to dig into the data and era's of the past.
 
SHAD0W93

SHAD0W93

Aug 13, 2011
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I feel like out of the talent right now this is a hard one to predict.
Of the ones with a grand tour win already who I believe can win another is:
Froome, Dumoulin, Yates, and Nibali

Of the contenders without a Grand Tour win I believe that,
Mas, Lopez, Bernal, and Roglic are almost a shoe in to win.
Chaves, Landa, and Krushweak can potentially win one as well.
 
Cance > TheRest

Cance > TheRest

Apr 17, 2013
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Re:

Red Rick said:
I have my doubts about MAL cause I dont really think he was better in any GT this year than he was during his wins last year, except for 1 stage. He's a pure climber who needs to win in the mountains and yet he's been really unable to make any big difference there.

There's a huge difference between riders who can top 5/podium and riders who actually end up winning them, although the competition in GTs does vary a bit, both within a year, and over the years.
Click to expand...
I can see why you'd say that Lopez has lost the WOW-factor in the process of gaining consistency. It certainly looks like he cannot just ride away anymore like he did on Sierra Nevada last year, but you can also argue that this is because he is a bigger threat in GC now. I think he's a much better GT rider this year compared to last year. Less exciting perhaps, but much smarter, doesn't crash all the time and you don't have to worry that he's going to crack, because he isn't. The results show that too. It's almost inevitable that he will win a GT with a few tweaks. He's found the rhythm now, I think.
 
Gigs_98

Gigs_98

Feb 18, 2015
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Reading that list makes you realize what an exclusive club the gt winners actually are and even more multiple gt winners, as there are only 3 active ones of those. Every year there are so many young climbers who are called the next big thing that you can easily forget how few of them actually win a gt.
 
Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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Gigs_98 said:
Reading that list makes you realize what an exclusive club the gt winners actually are and even more multiple gt winners, as there are only 3 active ones of those. Every year there are so many young climbers who are called the next big thing that you can easily forget how few of them actually win a gt.
Click to expand...
I think generally people get so stuck in their head with 'riders peak around 28' that the too easily assume there's a lot of room left to improve
 
Dekker_Tifosi

Dekker_Tifosi

Mar 13, 2009
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It's because, to win a GT, not only do you have to be the best rider over 3 weeks.
You also have to stay healthy for 3 weeks, recuperate well for 3 weeks, not have anything unlucky happening like falls or punctures at the worst moment, etc..

For top 10 or even podium many of those things might not matter or matter less. But for winning everything needs to go perfect.
That's why it's such a selective club.

For instance, Yates lost the Giro because he had to go balls to the wall in every mountain stage to create a sustainable gap to Froome and Dumoulin with the TT. That effectively cost him the win because that amount of energy expenditure is not possible in a GT.
He now won the Vuelta because he didn't need to create a gap in the TT like he did in the Giro. Allowing him to be a bit more careful in the first 2 weeks and only go allout in the final 2 mountain stages. (and save the rest for 1km attacks)

Lopez needs to learn to stop losing time in hilly stages and try to cooperate more with riders with similar interests. If you don't create some friends or good will, you will have a hard time winning a GT.
Mas seems to have it all, only needs some years of experience and strength basically.
Bernal same.

But it's always hard to predict if they keep on rising or not
 
Y

YavorD

Jul 8, 2017
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In additional to Lopez, gotta admit that in this Vuelta he didn't lost any "easy" seconds (apart from the Stage 2) like he used to do in his previous GT's when he had a big handicap. And yes, in this Vuelta he failed to make gaps, but he was attacking. More than Mas for example.
So I think he is ready to take the next step and become a GT winner. But so I thought about many riders in the last 10 years and not all of them delivered.
 
Rollthedice

Rollthedice

May 11, 2013
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The pattern here is breakthrough at 23-24, win the first GT in the next 1-2 years. After that it's getting harder and the list of potential but not quite winners longer. From all of the above including the strange cases of Thomas and Horner, only Valverde needed 6 years to win his first and only Grand Tour. If we look back then certainly there are riders who won long after their breakthrough, Cadel and Sastre come to mind but that's for other statistics.
 
L

Leinster

Jun 10, 2017
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Gigs_98 said:
Reading that list makes you realize what an exclusive club the gt winners actually are and even more multiple gt winners, as there are only 3 active ones of those. Every year there are so many young climbers who are called the next big thing that you can easily forget how few of them actually win a gt.
Click to expand...
Part of the thing with the current list is you have 2 riders (Froome and Nibali) with 10 GT wins between them, and also Contador’s retirement last year meant that 7 GT wins from the last 10 or so (19% of the past 36 GTs) were “taken out of circulation,” if you will.

Because of Froome’s dominance in recent years, he and Nibali were the only past winners to start the Tour this year. Though I think there were probably at least 2 or 3 future winners.
 
D

del1962

Oct 16, 2012
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Just had a look at start of 2010

Future Winners in peloton at the time

Nibali (that year)
Andy *
Scarponi *
Cadel
Cobo
Hesejedal
Wiggo
Froome
Papa
G

(U23s and Juniors)
Tom D
Nairo
Aru
Simon Y

Previous GT winners in peloton

Armstrong *
Periro./Landa *
Contador
Sastre
Basso
Vino
Cunego
Valverde *
Menchov
Simoni
Garzellli
Di Luca *
 
B

Breh

Jun 24, 2015
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Re:

del1962 said:
Just had a look at start of 2010

Future Winners in peloton at the time

Nibali (that year)
Andy *
Scarponi *
Cadel
Cobo
Hesejedal
Wiggo
Froome
Papa
G
Click to expand...
Atleast 5 out of these 10 names would've been an absolute joke back in 2010.

Nibali and Cadel, fine. Andy and Scarponi are somewhat discutable. Wiggins is a bit of a stretch aswell.
The rest is hilarious.
 
Gigs_98

Gigs_98

Feb 18, 2015
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Re: Re:

Breh said:
del1962 said:
Just had a look at start of 2010

Future Winners in peloton at the time

Nibali (that year)
Andy *
Scarponi *
Cadel
Cobo
Hesejedal
Wiggo
Froome
Papa
G
Click to expand...
Atleast 5 out of these 10 names would've been an absolute joke back in 2010.

Nibali and Cadel, fine. Andy and Scarponi are somewhat discutable. Wiggins is a bit of a stretch aswell.
The rest is hilarious.
Click to expand...
Actually it would have seemed ridiculous to claim Andy would only win one gt in his career. He was basically a more proven version of what Bernal is now.

Anyway, this list is super weird. 9 of those 10 riders won one of the next 12 gt's, and only two of the 9 won more than one gt. Those numbers are extreme. In the following 12 gt's (from 2014 to 2017) there were only 3 new gt winners. Moreover as you wrote, who on earth expected Cobo, Hesjedal, Froome, Horner and Thomas to ever get anywhere near a gt win. Two good but not great climbers, a complete noname, a once good rider who is already extremely old and a track specialist.
 
Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
49,307
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Re: Re:

Gigs_98 said:
Breh said:
del1962 said:
Just had a look at start of 2010

Future Winners in peloton at the time

Nibali (that year)
Andy *
Scarponi *
Cadel
Cobo
Hesejedal
Wiggo
Froome
Papa
G
Click to expand...
Atleast 5 out of these 10 names would've been an absolute joke back in 2010.

Nibali and Cadel, fine. Andy and Scarponi are somewhat discutable. Wiggins is a bit of a stretch aswell.
The rest is hilarious.
Click to expand...
Actually it would have seemed ridiculous to claim Andy would only win one gt in his career. He was basically a more proven version of what Bernal is now.

Anyway, this list is super weird. 9 of those 10 riders won one of the next 12 gt's, and only two of the 9 won more than one gt. Those numbers are extreme. In the following 12 gt's (from 2014 to 2017) there were only 3 new gt winners. Moreover as you wrote, who on earth expected Cobo, Hesjedal, Froome, Horner and Thomas to ever get anywhere near a gt win. Two good but not great climbers, a complete noname, a once good rider who is already extremely old and a track specialist.
Click to expand...
Seriously, if you'd have posted those names with the question 'who's most likely to win a GT in their career?' 95% votes Schleck with the remaining 5% asking if OP is in his right mind.

Part of me died a little when seeing that list.
 
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