How long can Levi keep it in his pants?

[thehog]

Looks like Levi could be coming into the form of his life. TT’ing is better than solid and will be interesting to see how he climbs come the mountain stages at Paris-Nice.

He’d be on a nice salary but this may be his last chance to take a real crack at the Tour.

How long can he go on willing to stuff up that chance to support Armstrong. One mountain stage hanging back to help the old man is going to kill off his chances… is he willing to breakfree?

 

[Big GMaC]

Looks like Levi could be coming into the form of his life. TT’ing is better than solid and will be interesting to see how he climbs come the mountain stages at Paris-Nice.

He’d be on a nice salary but this may be his last chance to take a real crack at the Tour.

How long can he go on willing to stuff up that chance to support Armstrong. One mountain stage hanging back to help the old man is going to kill off his chances… is he willing to breakfree?

As long as LA controls the bloodbag Levi will know they could go all Floyd Landis on him and flush them. And that would screw him royally

 

[Inner Peace]

Looks like Levi could be coming into the form of his life. TT’ing is better than solid and will be interesting to see how he climbs come the mountain stages at Paris-Nice.

He’d be on a nice salary but this may be his last chance to take a real crack at the Tour.

How long can he go on willing to stuff up that chance to support Armstrong. One mountain stage hanging back to help the old man is going to kill off his chances… is he willing to breakfree?

This may be his last chance indeed, but i'd give him 2011 as well, especially if they up the TTkms. This trend in GTs, particularly the Tour, is killing off the TT-dominant GT rider.

In my opinion, Leipheimer is one of a few who I think can actually beat Contador. Andy Schleck can't do it. The only one who can is a time trial dominant rider over Contador.

Now, Leipheimer may lose multiple minutes in the mountains, but if, just if, he manages to hang on to Contador up the Tourmalet, then I think he can out TT him by 1 minute, maybe more on a super day. Is that a win? Probably not, but he's one a few out there who I believe can actually take back time on Contador. Maybe not enough for a win tho... but worth an honourable mention I think.

The other guys I think can beat Contador is Evans and Armstrong, but both need to relearn how to time trial. On 2007 form, Evans can win. On 2004, 2005 form, Armstrong can win. Wiggins is still too hard to judge for me. He has no past reference point to judge other than 2009.

Both unlikely, very unlikely really, but Andy Schleck absolutely cannot beat Contador. AC's only weakness is a long TT, and that's Leipheimer's (and used to be Evans' and Armstrong's) strength.

I still pick Contador for the tour win, and it's up to the Schleck brothers to put time into the 'time triallists' if they want to get on the podium. If it's a defensive tour on the mountain stages, guys like Evans and Leipheimer and maybe Armstrong will nudge out the Schlecks.

Having said that, i doubt the Schlecks are gonna make it a defensive tour, so the TT guys I mentioned better bring their oxygen masks because they are gonna have to reach altitude fast!

sorry bout the long post. I think i went in circles there. it's late... and i'm rambling

 

[luckyboy]

The other guys I think can beat Contador is Evans and Armstrong, but both need to relearn how to time trial. On 2007 form, Evans can win. On 2004, 2005 form, Armstrong can win. Wiggins is still too hard to judge for me. He has no past reference point to judge other than 2009.

There'd have to be 2 very long TTs and like 1 MTF for either of those to stand a chance of beatinf AC.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

This trend in GTs, particularly the Tour, is killing off the TT-dominant GT rider.

I don't know that there's any 'trend' per se; just that all three GTs have gone for a more climbing-intensive route this year. The 2009 Giro was won by a rider who took minutes on the (almost unbelievably difficult) ITT, and the 2009 Tour was particularly TT-intensive, with the tricky opening ITT and the TTT proving decisive for several contenders - perhaps the easiest GT parcours for a TT specialist in living memory. The 2010 routes all favour climbers, but it's only if we have another two years of climbing-biased routes that I'd consider it a 'trend' against the TT-dominant GT rider.

 

[Cerberus]

This may be his last chance indeed, but i'd give him 2011 as well, especially if they up the TTkms. This trend in GTs, particularly the Tour, is killing off the TT-dominant GT rider.

In my opinion, Leipheimer is one of a few who I think can actually beat Contador. Andy Schleck can't do it. The only one who can is a time trial dominant rider over Contador.

Now, Leipheimer may lose multiple minutes in the mountains, but if, just if, he manages to hang on to Contador up the Tourmalet, then I think he can out TT him by 1 minute, maybe more on a super day. Is that a win? Probably not, but he's one a few out there who I believe can actually take back time on Contador. Maybe not enough for a win tho... but worth an honourable mention I think.

The other guys I think can beat Contador is Evans and Armstrong, but both need to relearn how to time trial. On 2007 form, Evans can win. On 2004, 2005 form, Armstrong can win. Wiggins is still too hard to judge for me. He has no past reference point to judge other than 2009.

Both unlikely, very unlikely really, but Andy Schleck absolutely cannot beat Contador. AC's only weakness is a long TT, and that's Leipheimer's (and used to be Evans' and Armstrong's) strength.

This is wrong on several points. No way Evans wins in 2007 form. We know that because in 2007 he lost to Contador and Contador has gotten a lot better since 2007 and there's less TT km. Armstrong might win on 2004-2005 form, but the only way you get Armstrong on 2004 form is with a time machine.

More importantly your entire logic is flawed. Why is it only a superior TTer who can beat Contador? Particularly on a Tour like 2010 with little TT. It would make sense if you said that only a complete rider could beat Contador, but Evans and Leipheimer are no more complete than Schleck. They just have their strenght on TTs rather than mountains. Now I agree that Andy Schleck is going to have trouble beating Contador because he doesn't TT well, but he is young and he could improve both on TT and in the mountains. Leipheimer and Evans on the other hand are old and getting older and it's even dubious whether they can take time on Contador on a TT. Even if they could though they're just not good enough climbers to keep Contador within reach for the TT. It's far more likely that AS can take time on Contador in the mountains and defend on the TT, than that Evans and Leaipheimer, or LA for that matter, can keep close enough that they can overtake on the TT. Still unlikely, but projecting an improvement for a 24 year old is far more plausible than for a couple of 33-38 year olds.

 

[python]

Looks like Levi could be coming into the form of his life. TT’ing is better than solid and will be interesting to see how he climbs come the mountain stages at Paris-Nice.

He’d be on a nice salary but this may be his last chance to take a real crack at the Tour.

How long can he go on willing to stuff up that chance to support Armstrong. One mountain stage hanging back to help the old man is going to kill off his chances… is he willing to breakfree?

i neither dislike levi nor have a soft spot for him but plenty of athletic respect because it's well deserved.

that said, i have tried to follow his career objectively for years.

long story short - he is not a gt winning material.

one can try to compile a scenario thats favourable to ll (like inner peace did in another post). fine. it can happen. but the fortune goddess is rarely biased one way. she already gave ll plenty of chances and he blew them all.

it is arguable, but my reckoning there are two main reasons:
(i) he has a pussy character (i dont mean grit or ability to suffer)
(ii) he has no kick.

 

[ravens]

Looks like Levi could be coming into the form of his life. TT’ing is better than solid and will be interesting to see how he climbs come the mountain stages at Paris-Nice.

He’d be on a nice salary but this may be his last chance to take a real crack at the Tour.

How long can he go on willing to stuff up that chance to support Armstrong. One mountain stage hanging back to help the old man is going to kill off his chances… is he willing to breakfree?

An 8k prologue does not a race make. Too early to tell.

 

[ravens]

it is arguable, but my reckoning there are two main reasons:
(i) he has a pussy character (i dont mean grit or ability to suffer)
(ii) he has no kick.

After watching him for a few years, I agree.

 

[Four Winds]

That said, I've never seen anyone so pumped up for the start of a race. he was literally shaking with adrenaline on the ramp.

Perhaps this is because it's one of his few chances to be off the leash this year (California possibly another?), but I don't think any Shack rider will be under any illusions as to their role come July.

 

[karlboss]

When was the tour of california last year? Did Levi perform after it?

I've said enough

 

[luckyboy]

This trend in GTs, particularly the Tour, is killing off the TT-dominant GT rider.

Great, isn't it?

 

[thehog]

To put it another way; Say Levi is within 30 seconds of Contador and the Shlecks start attacking... he looks around at old man Armstrong and he’s looking like he did on Verbier last year. Does he stay or does he go? He has to go. To skittle his own chances even of a top 5 finish bywaiting for a rider who’ll be lucky to make the top 20 is going to be the worst mistake of his life.

 

[Publicus]

...

it is arguable, but my reckoning there are two main reasons:
(i) he has a pussy character (i dont mean grit or ability to suffer)
(ii) he has no kick.

With these two points you have nicely summarized why Levi is not a threat to win a GT.

 

[karlboss]

To put it another way; Say Levi is within 30 seconds of Contador and the Shlecks start attacking... he looks around at old man Armstrong and he’s looking like he did on Verbier last year. Does he stay or does he go? He has to go. To skittle his own chances even of a top 5 finish bywaiting for a rider who’ll be lucky to make the top 20 is going to be the worst mistake of his life.

Wow what a specific scenario. I'll say at that moment Armstrong will look back into the eyes of his friend know its over and nod his approval.

 

[Publicus]

To put it another way; Say Levi is within 30 seconds of Contador and the Shlecks start attacking... he looks around at old man Armstrong and he’s looking like he did on Verbier last year. Does he stay or does he go? He has to go. To skittle his own chances even of a top 5 finish bywaiting for a rider who’ll be lucky to make the top 20 is going to be the worst mistake of his life.

I don't think Levi's instinct will be to follow. His instinct will be to wait for instructions from the Hog. But this is all moot. Lance is going to get in another race against weak competition (Sarthe) and he'll be 2002 Lance come July. Levi won't stand a chance!

 

[thehog]

Wow what a specific scenario. I'll say at that moment Armstrong will look back into the eyes of his friend know its over and nod his approval.

Never.

For Lance there'd be one thing worse than Alberto winning.... Levi finishing ahead of him.

 

[Angliru]

That said, I've never seen anyone so pumped up for the start of a race. he was literally shaking with adrenaline on the ramp.

Perhaps this is because it's one of his few chances to be off the leash this year (California possibly another?), but I don't think any Shack rider will be under any illusions as to their role come July.

LL had illusions prior to the 2009 Tour and I wouldn't doubt that he will have them this year especially with Armstrong not showing the drastic improvements in form that all the numbers that were being quoted would have one believe. Sneaking in through the backdoor, under the radar is his hope.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Without quoting Inner Peace's piece, I would have to say I disagree with it, in its entirety.
The Tour's obssession was, until this edition, with overly long ITT's and the dredded and biased 60km+ TTT.
Contre la montre has stiffled the event for years.

Levi the super and consistent trialist? Umm, I find his disasterous efforts of the 2006 race, hard to forget, when weighed against one outstanding performance in 2007.
Since that stage, Contador has improved immeasurably. Leipheimer to take over minute out of Contador? I don't think so. 3 tenths of a second, yesterday and Alberto beat him comfortably in Algarve.

I agree with posters who say he's got no kick. He is a diesel and can't live with the acceleration of Contador or Schleck.
Has to go hard from afar and hope to take the sting out of these guys, much like a European long distance runner, up against a bunch of Kenyans.

 

[blackcat]

How long can Levi keep it in his pants?

How long? Well, about as long as StrongArm is willing to give LEepY some sloppy seconds with one of his groupeez

 

[kurtinsc]

When was the tour of california last year? Did Levi perform after it?

I've said enough

It was February. Yes he did perform after it... he won the Vuelta Castillia y Leon by 16 seconds over Contador in late March.

He couldn't hold his form through May though. Did have a solid ITT in stage 12 at the Giro (20 seconds behind Menchov, 1:40 ahead of Wiggins) and was sitting in decent position... but he cracked on Monte Petrano on stage 16, again on Blockhaus on 17, and to a lesser degree on Vesuvius on 19. He definitely ran out of gas.

 

[Ferminal]

This is wrong on several points. No way Evans wins in 2007 form. We know that because in 2007 he lost to Contador and Contador has gotten a lot better since 2007 and there's less TT km. Armstrong might win on 2004-2005 form, but the only way you get Armstrong on 2004 form is with a time machine.

More importantly your entire logic is flawed. Why is it only a superior TTer who can beat Contador? Particularly on a Tour like 2010 with little TT. It would make sense if you said that only a complete rider could beat Contador, but Evans and Leipheimer are no more complete than Schleck. They just have their strenght on TTs rather than mountains. Now I agree that Andy Schleck is going to have trouble beating Contador because he doesn't TT well, but he is young and he could improve both on TT and in the mountains. Leipheimer and Evans on the other hand are old and getting older and it's even dubious whether they can take time on Contador on a TT. Even if they could though they're just not good enough climbers to keep Contador within reach for the TT. It's far more likely that AS can take time on Contador in the mountains and defend on the TT, than that Evans and Leaipheimer, or LA for that matter, can keep close enough that they can overtake on the TT. Still unlikely, but projecting an improvement for a 24 year old is far more plausible than for a couple of 33-38 year olds.

Levi would have beat Contador in 2007 if they weren't teammates? Levi had some average days in the mountains but maybe that minute wouldn't be there if he was more willing to chase down a teammate.

Or if Chicken got kicked out earlier.

 

[Cerberus]

Levi would have beat Contador in 2007 if they weren't teammates? Levi had some average days in the mountains but maybe that minute wouldn't be there if he was more willing to chase down a teammate.

Or if Chicken got kicked out earlier.

Is that a question or an opinion? The question mark is sort of confusing. Anyway, perhaps Leipheimer could have beaten Contador in 2007, but Contador has gotten a lot stronger in the last 2 years.

 

[blackcat]

if Rass goes out earlier, the race changes. I think Evans and Levi with Conta battle out for the win.

 

[Highlander]

To put it another way; Say Levi is within 30 seconds of Contador and the Shlecks start attacking... he looks around at old man Armstrong and he’s looking like he did on Verbier last year. Does he stay or does he go? He has to go. To skittle his own chances even of a top 5 finish bywaiting for a rider who’ll be lucky to make the top 20 is going to be the worst mistake of his life.

In that situation, Levi will just continue to ride along Armstrong because he probably wouldn't be able to match the accelerations from the Schlecks. He's a good climber, but not even close to being in their league and nothing that he has shown thus far makes me think that he can hang with the best on the steepest climbs.

Let's not forget how last year at the Giro, Levi was planning on attacking to get back the time that he lost to Menchov in the long TT. How did that turn out?