How well will Armstrong climb in this Tour?

[Ninety5rpm]

Everyone assumes that Contador will climb well, probably the best. But what about Armstrong?

How well will Armstrong climb in this Tour?

(poll is coming)

 

[byu123]

Everyone assumes that Contador will climb well, probably the best. But what about Armstrong?

How well will Armstrong climb in this Tour?

(poll is coming)

One totally unknown wildcard to this question is "the old guy on Astana's" weight. He has lost more than 5lbs since the Giro and claims at 158lbs he is lighter than he ever was for his 7 wins. May explain the ITT performance, but what does it do to his current power ratio. Can't compare it to Giro (lighter and stronger) and can't really compare it to previous tour wins (lighter).

If he is in as good a form as his previous Tours as he claims and he gave up a little in the ITT by losing so much weight in an effort to boost his power ratio, he could theoretically be a better climber than he has ever been.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

One totally unknown wildcard to this question is "the old guy on Astana's" weight. He has lost more than 5lbs since the Giro and claims at 158lbs he is lighter than he ever was for his 7 wins. May explain the ITT performance, but what does it do to his current power ratio. Can't compare it to Giro (lighter and stronger) and can't really compare it to previous tour wins (lighter).

If he is in as good a form as his previous Tours as he claims and he gave up a little in the ITT by losing so much weight in an effort to boost his power ratio, he could theoretically be a better climber than he has ever been.

From what I saw in the TTT today, loss of power did not seem to be an issue.

I think he might have been a tad conservative on the ITT, or wasn't as jacked up, or whatever. But if he's got more of whatever cocktail he had for breakfast today, and he's going to use it in the mountains... wow!

 

[Clemson Cycling]

There are so many choices. What ever happened to Very well, well, mediocre, struggle, and why did he come out of retirement?

 

[Parrot23]

Tough to know. No one but he, and his close coaching guys, know (Carmichael, Ferrari, maybe Kevin Livingston who administers some of the tests): lot of info. given out by Astana and Carmichael is for a purpose.

He's hedging his bets, saying to the New York Times a few days ago it's possible Contador could be far stronger in general. He will have done his usual pre-Tour tests and will know the answer himself (I think watts on a stationary bike, or he used to do tests on a standard hill in Nice with Dr. Ferrari, I think--but could be wrong on the location). Hence his hedging above. He etc. likes to manage expectations.

Think climbing is the first thing that weakens on an aging rider (and recovery, of course), and certainly in Indurain's case.

But he looked stoked in the car back from the TTT today, so maybe he believes.

 

[RightWingNutJob]

I chose the Good option, but it is possible to have more than one answer.

 

[Hotbrakes]

I thought the Tour would be a repeat of the Giro where he started slowly and finished strong. But he looks super fit and he may fade. But his goal is to win the Tour by winning the Ventoux stage, so he will need to save some energy by following wheels right up until halfway up the giant of Provence. Contador and A shleck need to attack on stage 7 if they are going to win the Tour. But that is not news to anyone on this forum.

 

[Parrot23]

Not a great barometer, but gives some indications.

Have to count out a lot of guys here, and include others higher up--and there were some pacing issues in Monaco TT (hard early or later).

But I would say Lance is in spitting distance of Kloden, Nibali, Kreuzinger, Leipheimer, and maybe Evans, when it comes to climbing this Tour--at least on initial hills. Hey, he's got a chance, I think. And may have been stronger than Nibali and prob. was vs. Leipheimer on Giro climbs.

First time check top of hill Monaco prologue:

Intermediate standings 7.5km

1 Alberto Contador (Spa) Astana 0:11:22
2 Tony Martin (Ger) Columbia-HTC 0:11:27
3 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin-Slipstream 0:11:28
4 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence-Lotto 0:11:29
5 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Astana 0:11:30
6 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas 0:11:30
7 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas 0:11:31
8 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:11:32
9 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 0:11:39
10 David Millar (GBr) Garmin-Slipstream 0:11:43
11 Mikel Astarloza (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:11:45
12 Gustav Erik Larsson (Swe) Saxo Bank 0:11:46
13 Andy Schleck (Lux) Saxo Bank 0:11:48
14 Jérôme Coppel (Fra) Française des Jeux 0:11:50
15 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Katusha 0:11:53

 

[Socialist]

Everyone assumes that Contador will climb well, probably the best. But what about Armstrong?

How well will Armstrong climb in this Tour?

(poll is coming)

Depends on if he will be able to avoid a positive test.
No doubt he is doped, no doubt he is good at avoiding detection.

Hope he will finish around 25th or get caught cheating.

 

[Socialist]

Tough to know. No one but he, and his close coaching guys, know (Carmichael, Ferrari, maybe Kevin Livingston who administers some of the tests): lot of info. given out by Astana and Carmichael is for a purpose.

He's hedging his bets, saying to the New York Times a few days ago it's possible Contador could be far stronger in general. He will have done his usual pre-Tour tests and will know the answer himself (I think watts on a stationary bike, or he used to do tests on a standard hill in Nice with Dr. Ferrari, I think--but could be wrong on the location). Hence his hedging above. He etc. likes to manage expectations.

Think climbing is the first thing that weakens on an aging rider (and recovery, of course), and certainly in Indurain's case.

But he looked stoked in the car back from the TTT today, so maybe he believes.

Ferrari.........aka Doctor dope........hmmmm.
I am from DK, and yes, Rasmussen was also doped.

 

[Anonymous]

Depends on if he will be able to avoid a positive test.
No doubt he is doped, no doubt he is good at avoiding detection.

Hope he will finish around 25th or get caught cheating.

Ferrari.........aka Doctor dope........hmmmm.
I am from DK, and yes, Rasmussen was also doped.

Wrong forum. Try The Clinic

 

[Publicus]

I think he is going to do pretty well. I don't think, however, he's going to have the turnover that he use to--at least not able to sustain it. He was making monster pulls today, that being said it wasn't on a 8.5% grade (which is probably were Contador will attack on Andorre). We will have our answer soon enough.

 

[Escarabajo]

?

.......................

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

LA will ride better then the did at the giro. but will lose time to the likes of saste, AC, schlecks, gesink.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Depends on if he will be able to avoid a positive test.
No doubt he is doped, no doubt he is good at avoiding detection.

Do you agree that there is as much/little evidence for the above to apply to any serious contender as it applies to Armstrong?

Hope he will finish around 25th or get caught cheating.

Do you feel the same way about all the serious contenders, or only Lance? If only Lance, why?

 

[2nd2none]

well done o smart one

Depends on if he will be able to avoid a positive test.
No doubt he is doped, no doubt he is good at avoiding detection.

Hope he will finish around 25th or get caught cheating.

glad someone has the knowledge and smarts to put a well thought out quote on here....good luck with life.

 

[ProfTournesol]

He'll climb as well as he has in the past. I don't mean to turn it into a doping thread but why should his climbing ability have changed at all in 10 years? He'll climb the steepest gradients effortlessly with limitless endurance, quickly towel down the slight beads of sweat, and then without being breathless he'll casually saunter off the bike and immediately start doing TV interviews. 'No talents' like Cadel Evans, Denis Menchov et al. will be left struggling in his dust and then stagger/collapse in a breathless heap at the end of the stage.

Some things never change.

 

[RhodriM]

I imagine Astana will do their best to neutralise attacks in the mountains and keep the favourites together? Probably a lone polka-dot break and all the GCs following in a boring nervous group?

But then there is the Ventoux I guess with no TT afterwards to make up for it. I wonder if we'll have to wait until then for something interesting to happen?

 

[Franklin]

He'll climb as well as he has in the past. I don't mean to turn it into a doping thread but why should his climbing ability have changed at all in 10 years?

There are two points.

1. His age should put some dents in his explosive speed changes. It will be a little bit, but considering they are all pretty close this might make a difference.
2. More importantly, he seems more muscular, more weight in "unneccesary" body parts. That will be negative for his KW/Kg ratio, which should translate in worse climbing.

That said, I'm not so sure that he will be dropped.. I expect he will be able to hang on and bring it home again. Normally I would change expect with fear as I'm not to fond of Lance's personality, but I can't deny I find it fascinating. If he pulls this one off it will be a riot, well worth watching. And truth to be told, the way Liberty was demolished, yet favorite son in law AC got spared makes me dislike AC even more.

Pick your poison I guess

 

[BroDeal]

He is probably doped to the eyeballs, just like in 1999. It is not a given that AC will gain any time. AC's blood may end up getting poured down the toilet like Landis' was in 2004.

 

[Captain Kirk]

There are two points.

1. His age should put some dents in his explosive speed changes. It will be a little bit, but considering they are all pretty close this might make a difference.
2. More importantly, he seems more muscular, more weight in "unneccesary" body parts. That will be negative for his KW/Kg ratio, which should translate in worse climbing.

That said, I'm not so sure that he will be dropped.. I expect he will be able to hang on and bring it home again. Normally I would change expect with fear as I'm not to fond of Lance's personality, but I can't deny I find it fascinating. If he pulls this one off it will be a riot, well worth watching. And truth to be told, the way Liberty was demolished, yet favorite son in law AC got spared makes me dislike AC even more.



Pick your poison I guess

Spot on I reckon, fascinating - now thats an understatement

QU; will his Mom land in the chopper with his home cooked banana bread like old times

 

[Bagster]

Do you agree that there is as much/little evidence for the above to apply to any serious contender as it applies to Armstrong?


Do you feel the same way about all the serious contenders, or only Lance? If only Lance, why?

Why Lance? Because losers don't like winners, and if you win seven times they like you even less. A guy like him punched Eddie Merckx in the kidneys, same mentality.

They are happy to back the underdog but of course they don't apply the same biased viewpoint to them as they do to LA. They can't accept that he has historically just been better than everyone else, it doen't sit well with their philosophy of "be good but not too good, and dont dare tell us how good you are'. You will notice that the same tiny minds are now starting to take aim at Cavendish also, the "who is he to tell us he is the best, tut tut such arrogance".

If Lance wins he will be doped up to the eyballs in their minds (even though the French are busting their nuts to catch him doping and keep coming up with nothing). If he loses...well they have that worked out to! he is obviously too old and not doping to the degree he used to.

Just check out the posts of Brodeal, Bigboat and their other anti LA hateboy mates over the next couple of weeks and you will see exactly what I mean. You will note that they consider themselves the only authorities and will ridicule anyone who has an opposing viewpoint. They post a lot but really it is just the same post with different toppings and always comes back to a Lance rant.

 

[Animal]

why should his climbing ability have changed at all in 10 years?

I guess you must be young enough to think that time has no effect

 

[Franklin]

I guess you must be young enough to think that time has no effect

God you immediately make me remember when I started racing at age 21... getting into shape within weeks, losing weight at will, huge acceleration

I started again when I was 35 after 10 years of being lazy. It SUCKS! took me much longer to get into shape (though I do feel my endurance is better).. and making a break is just that much tougher. It feels like I lost 10 kmh of my top end...

Animal, I detest you making me feel like an old coot

 

[elapid]

+1 on the age factor.

While Lance will probably be able to climb just as well as 1999-2005, I don't think he'll be able to match the accelerations and change in pace of Contador and Andy Schleck. They will be the two riders to make the race interesting in the mountains IMO.