Is it nowadays possible to win all 5 monuments?

[robin440]

who could potentially do it? Gilbert still says that its his goal to win all 5 but time is running out.
Sagan? Kwiat? Degenkolb, if he transforms his body after a flanders win?

 

[DFA123]

who could potentially do it? Gilbert still says that its his goal to win all 5 but time is running out.
Sagan? Kwiat? Degenkolb, if he transforms his body after a flanders win?

Definitely possible; though would be a challenge for any of the current generation. I'd say (along with Sagan) Michael Matthews would be the most likely of current riders; he's got the combination of speed and climbing ability already - could easily see him contending for MSR, Lombardia and LBL in the future. The cobbles may take some work, but are not beyond the realms of possibility.

I

 

[Jolleh]

I think its allmost impossible. i think a rider would have to dedicate 5 years or more of his career to this specific goal.
Then again! i think Sagan could do it but would need some luck!

 

[carton]

I'd put down some cash on Sagan finishing second at all five

 

[Flamin]

It's that time again. The same threads coming back every year

But no, it's not possible.

 

[Ramon Koran]

Definitly possible, think the most likely is definitly Sagan (by far), Gilbert could maybe win flanders but San remo and Paris Roubaix dont think so. Other than them maybe geraint Thomas? Good in punchy hills and very strong. Degenkolb no, matthews neither not good on cobbles.

 

[Billie]

Sagan, Gilbert, Kwiatek, Stybar most likely from the current peloton.

Small overview:

Cancellara: MSR: win, Ronde: win, Roubaix: win. Never did the others
Gilbert: MSR: 3rd, Ronde: 3rd, Roubaix: 52nd, Liege: win, Lombardia: win
Sagan: MSR: 2nd, Ronde: 2nd, Roubaix: 6th, Lombardia: abandon. Never started Liege (real shame considering there are always 20 riders left in Ans these days)
Kwiatkowski: MSR: 67th, Ronde: 40th, Liege: 3rd, Lombardia 77th. Never started Roubaix.


Think it's definatly gotten tougher with the new Ronde course which is much more for heavier flandriens

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Sagan, Gilbert, Kwiatek, Stybar most likely from the current peloton.

Small overview:

Cancellara: MSR: win, Ronde: win, Roubaix: win. Never did the others
Gilbert: MSR: 3rd, Ronde: 3rd, Roubaix: 52nd, Liege: win, Lombardia: win
Sagan: MSR: 2nd, Ronde: 2nd, Roubaix: 6th, Lombardia: abandon. Never started Liege (real shame considering there are always 20 riders left in Ans these days)
Kwiatkowski: MSR: 67th, Ronde: 40th, Liege: 3rd, Lombardia 77th. Never started Roubaix.


Think it's definatly gotten tougher with the new Ronde course which is much more for heavier flandriens

I think Kwiatkowski is too lightweight for PR and RVV. He doesn't have the frame to pack on the extra muscle needed.

Stybar I think is too old now - not enough time for him to win them all. If he wins PR or RVV next year he will want to defend them and try to win them again, rather than take a massive risk losing weight and trying to focus on the more hilly monuments. Gilbert too old as well now. He'd have to completely give up his chances in the Ardennes for 2-3 years if he wanted any chance in RVV or PR - and he's not going to fo that.

I'd say Sagan and Matthews have a realistic chance. Perhaps Alaphilippe or Benoot have the skills as well - although both are still far too unproven to make any prediction yet.

 

[PremierAndrew]

It's really really difficult, but possible. Thing is, you need to be either a top sprinter, or an insane descender + amazingly strong on the flat to win MSR. Then you need to be really really punchy to win LBL, great at cobbles for PR, and then a combination of both, ideally with a good sprint, for RVV. Finding a rider like that is next to impossible, even over the course of a career. If Cancellara was a bit younger, then maybe he after losing weight, he would stand a chance in some of the ardennes. Degenkolb, Sagan and Thomas are all also potentially capable, but really, the closest rider to fitting that description, imo, is Van Avermaet - punchy, good on the cobbles and a fast finish, but at the age of 30, he's probably too old to do it now, along with Cancellara and Thomas

Looking at some younger riders, Alaphilippe looks like he could potentially do it, but really, it's Benoot who stands out for me. He seems like a punchy rider who is good on the cobbles, and with the right training, could win all 5 over the course of his career.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

It's really really difficult, but possible. Thing is, you need to be either a top sprinter, or an insane descender + amazingly strong on the flat to win MSR. Then you need to be really really punchy to win LBL, great at cobbles for PR, and then a combination of both, ideally with a good sprint, for RVV. Finding a rider like that is next to impossible, even over the course of a career. If Cancellara was a bit younger, then maybe he after losing weight, he would stand a chance in some of the ardennes. Degenkolb, Sagan and Thomas are all also potentially capable, but really, the closest rider to fitting that description, imo, is Van Avermaet - punchy, good on the cobbles and a fast finish, but at the age of 30, he's probably too old to do it now, along with Cancellara and Thomas

That's basically Sagan.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

It's really really difficult, but possible. Thing is, you need to be either a top sprinter, or an insane descender + amazingly strong on the flat to win MSR. Then you need to be really really punchy to win LBL, great at cobbles for PR, and then a combination of both, ideally with a good sprint, for RVV. Finding a rider like that is next to impossible, even over the course of a career. If Cancellara was a bit younger, then maybe he after losing weight, he would stand a chance in some of the ardennes. Degenkolb, Sagan and Thomas are all also potentially capable, but really, the closest rider to fitting that description, imo, is Van Avermaet - punchy, good on the cobbles and a fast finish, but at the age of 30, he's probably too old to do it now, along with Cancellara and Thomas

That's basically Sagan.

Sagan has a long way to go on the cobbles

 

[Tryphon]

Would seriously doubt its even possible.

Gilbert out of everyone stood the best chance but even then i don't think he could win Roubaix.

 

[Billie]

Re: Re:

It's really really difficult, but possible. Thing is, you need to be either a top sprinter, or an insane descender + amazingly strong on the flat to win MSR. Then you need to be really really punchy to win LBL, great at cobbles for PR, and then a combination of both, ideally with a good sprint, for RVV. Finding a rider like that is next to impossible, even over the course of a career. If Cancellara was a bit younger, then maybe he after losing weight, he would stand a chance in some of the ardennes. Degenkolb, Sagan and Thomas are all also potentially capable, but really, the closest rider to fitting that description, imo, is Van Avermaet - punchy, good on the cobbles and a fast finish, but at the age of 30, he's probably too old to do it now, along with Cancellara and Thomas

That's basically Sagan.

Sagan has a long way to go on the cobbles

Don't agree. He's one of 5 best cobbled riders in the peloton.

 

[barmaher]

Anything is possible in the world of cycling.

I would give Sagan the following odds on winning each Classic in the next 10 years.

Milan San Remo 50%
RVV 60%
Roubaix 40%
LBL 20%
Lombardia 10%

So I would say it is less than 1% likely. A 1 in 400 chance.

 

[BigMac]

I actually give him higher chances of winning Lombardia than Liège, unless it's another Gerrans-like edition.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Anything is possible in the world of cycling.

I would give Sagan the following odds on winning each Classic in the next 10 years.

Milan San Remo 50%
RVV 60%
Roubaix 40%
LBL 20%
Lombardia 10%

So I would say it is less than 1% likely. A 1 in 400 chance.

I'd make him odds on to win MSR, RVV and Roubaix. He's probably got another 10 years at them. Cancellara and Boonen are over the hill now and he's shown at the TdF that when he gets his form and peaking right then he can outsprint Degenkolb and Kristoff.

Once he's won them, then it depends how he wants his career to go. He may try to collect as many of those three as possible. If so, then he's got no chance of winning LBL or Lombardia. If he switched focus for a couple of seasons though, I think he'd immediately be one of the favourites. He's shown at Amstel Gold and Strade Bianche as well as numerous times in the TdF that he can climb well enough; and that's without really focusing on that kind of race.

 

[Catwhoorg]

Re:

I'd put down some cash on Sagan finishing second at all five

he has 2/5 already.

Its a fairly safe bet I think.

 

[TMP402]

Thomas, Gallopin and Kwiatkowski.

Edit: and Nibali if he dedicated himself to the cobbles.

 

[Echoes]

The label 'Monument' is heresy. There's no such thing as monuments, it's just the consequence of the UCI's reshuffle of the calendar in 1989 with the World Cup and the ex-nihilo creation of new "classics" aiming at globalization.

The Walloon Arrow, Paris-Tours & Ghent-Wevelgem are as much classic as Liège-Bastogne-Liège is.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Maybe Sagan should try winning one monument first before we hype him as the most likely to win all five.......

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Thomas, Gallopin and Kwiatkowski.

Edit: and Nibali if he dedicated himself to the cobbles.

I hadn't thought about Nibali
With some luck, he could manage. If he arrives in spring competitive, then LBL is realistic, he has already come 2nd. MSR also, already 3rd, now he is a better rider, albeit a worse descender. GDL is a definite is VN arrives in top form, he has already come 5th once in 2010. If it rains/snows/hails/is freezing then Nibs has even more of a chance.
With some luck (and rain; much, much rain) then he could win Paris Roubaix. RVV is the hardest for him, though, and I can't see him winning it in any circumstance, especially at 30+.
But if RCS change the course of GDL again then I don't see Sagan/Matthews or the like winning. Their best chance is this year. LBL also, no one will work with Sagan to chase down moves and Matthews not too sure.
Gilbert has a good chance, he has 2 already and if RCS decide an umpteenth U-turn on the Pompeiana and include it then Gilbert could win MSR. ToF also. Paris Roubaix is hard too for him.
Kwiat no chance unless dramatic change in career.
Alaphillippe needs cobbles then yes.

 

[Miburo]

Gilbert from 2011 would be the one closest to it. VDB '99 too...

Both of them could have won the RVV that year btw.

But PR, that should be extremely difficult. But those 2 riders come into mind who possibly could have won all 5. Maybe piti too if he tried, but i don't think he can survive PR although with his talent you never know

 

[DFA123]

Nibali has no chance of ever winning RVV or Paris Roubaix.

A couple of good showings on watered down cobbled stages in the TdF don't suddenly mean he can ride people off his wheel after 250km of continually tough anaerobic efforts. And he certainly isn't going to win in a sprint against a classics specialist.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Nibali has no chance of ever winning RVV or Paris Roubaix.

A couple of good showings on watered down cobbled stages in the TdF don't suddenly mean he can ride people off his wheel after 250km of continually tough anaerobic efforts. And he certainly isn't going to win in a sprint against a classics specialist.

Not in normal circumstances, but Paris-Roubaix in a thunderstorm with 20mm of rain poured down then Nibali has a chance

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Nibali has no chance of ever winning RVV or Paris Roubaix.

A couple of good showings on watered down cobbled stages in the TdF don't suddenly mean he can ride people off his wheel after 250km of continually tough anaerobic efforts. And he certainly isn't going to win in a sprint against a classics specialist.

Not in normal circumstances, but Paris-Roubaix in a thunderstorm with 20mm of rain poured down then Nibali has a chance

Haha, possibly

Seriously though, it's one thing doing well in a Tour stage with a few cobbles when Nibali was at his peak and where most classics specialists were under-cooked or having to look after team-mates.

It's completely different doing it in the Spring on 250km+ routes. In races where all the classics specialists are there, all of them are on good form and trying to reach an absolute peak, and all of them are going all out for the win.