João Almeida - Bota Lume

[Cycling111]

Route was way harder last year. I'm pretty sure he would cook everyone on long mountain stages

But they didn't need to attack at 50km.
Without the first stage, there would surely have been more breakas to win stages.

Last year was an absolute monologue in the mountains against rivals like Skjelmose, who are better climbers than Onley and Vauquelin.
The differences last year were huge with better participation. I don't think the level will be higher than that.

If Remco performs at a similar level in the Tour, I think he'll finish fourth again.
In any case, he'll be closer to Remco than to Vingegaard. Vingegaard's Dauphiné performance is far superior to what we're seeing in Switzerland.
I'm surprised so many people at X think Almeida can even beat Vingegaard at the Tour. They've lost perspective. Dauhpiné was superior. Lipowitz's climbing level is far superior to Ondley's and Alaphilippe's.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Winning half the calendar.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Winning half the calendar.

Uary, Ary, Rch, Ril, Y, Ne, Ly, Ust, Ember, Ober, Mber, Ber.

 

[Cycling111]

Winning half the calendar.

Againts? Enric Mas, Lenny Martinez and Vauquelin.
That has nothing to do with the Tour.

He didn't win the overall in Paris-Nice with higher level.

He has a lot of merit, but beating Mas and Vauquelin doesn't matter to the Tour.
We've seen it with Ayuso. Ayuso has been winning these types of races for two years, but none against the top three. Ayuso won Tirreno but lost again to Roglic.
Almeida has won three races, but none against Vingegaard or Roglic, and in the Tour, you have to beat these riders, not Vauquelin, who won't even be in the top 10 at the Tour.

 

[noob]

Againts? Enric Mas, Lenny Martinez and Vauquelin.
That has nothing to do with the Tour.

He didn't win the overall in Paris-Nice with higher level.

He has a lot of merit, but beating Mas and Vauquelin doesn't matter to the Tour.
We've seen it with Ayuso. Ayuso has been winning these types of races for two years, but none against the top three. Ayuso won Tirreno but lost again to Roglic.
Almeida has won three races, but none against Vingegaard or Roglic, and in the Tour, you have to beat these riders, not Vauquelin, who won't even be in the top 10 at the Tour.

Ayuso and Rogla both DNF giro. Almeida technically defeated Rogla in Tdf last year by staying on his bike.

 

[Squire]

I'm surprised so many people at X think Almeida can even beat Vingegaard at the Tour. They've lost perspective. Dauhpiné was superior. Lipowitz's climbing level is far superior to Ondley's and Alaphilippe's.

I don't get how anyone can think that. If anything, Almeida seems slightly weaker at this year's Suisse than last year. Which could be due to form build-up, but there's nothing about this race that should immediately indicate that he'll suddenly be a lot better than last year in the Tour. There's no doubt that hardly anyone except Almeida and probably Onley from this race would have gone top 10 in the Dauphiné.

His season overall could maybe indicate a small step forward, but I think his wins in 2025 are more about achieving his mid-2024 level for the spring too.

 

[Cycling111]

I don't get how anyone can think that. If anything, Almeida seems slightly weaker at this year's Suisse than last year. Which could be due to form build-up, but there's nothing about this race that should immediately indicate that he'll suddenly be a lot better than last year in the Tour. There's no doubt that hardly anyone except Almeida and probably Onley from this race would have gone top 10 in the Dauphiné.

His season overall could maybe indicate a small step forward, but I think his wins in 2025 are more about achieving his mid-2024 level for the spring too.

Just remember that after Algarve, some people said Almeida was a better climber than Vingegaard, insane. We saw that in Dauphiné, Vingegaard is once again ahead of Almeida in climbs.

Last year, Almeida was stronger in TDS than Remco in Dauphiné. TDF is another thing.

For me, nothing changes from what happened this year for the Tour. He's still a contender for fourth place, third if Remco doesn't improve from the Dauphiné to the Tour, as he did last year.

I don't see anything that indicates he'll be close to Vingegaard, as many claimed after Algarve, or that this TDS indicates he'll be closer to second place than fourth in the Tour.

It seems that they don´t remember the level Almeida showed in Switzerland last year. It was very very very high. I don't see him being much better this year because he already had this level last year in Switzerland.

He didn't win other races because instead of leading, he was a domestique in the Volta Catalunya, but in Switzerland, his level was already this high.

 

[Squire]

It seems that they don´t remember the level Almeida showed in Switzerland last year. It was very very very high. I don't see him being much better this year because he already had this level last year in Switzerland.

He didn't win other races because instead of leading, he was a domestique in the Volta, but in Switzerland, his level was already this high.

That's pretty much what I was trying to say. His level for both Suisse and the Tour last year was very good. But he was clearly a level below that in the spring 2024 regardless of being a domestique, so this season is definitely a step forward in terms of being able to get to that level for a bigger chunk of the season. And there's of course a chance that he will also improve towards the Tour this year, but for him to be anywhere near Vingegaard's level is unlikely. I can see him being on roughly Remco's level, but I think because of Pog's weak-ish team, Almeida will be at a disadvantage in terms of fighting for the podium due to domestique work. Top 5 is definitely on the cards though, and the Vuelta can be interesting especially if he's actually holding back a bit more for his build-up this year.

 

[Cycling111]

That's pretty much what I was trying to say. His level for both Suisse and the Tour last year was very good. But he was clearly a level below that in the spring 2024 regardless of being a domestique, so this season is definitely a step forward in terms of being able to get to that level for a bigger chunk of the season. And there's of course a chance that he will also improve towards the Tour this year, but for him to be anywhere near Vingegaard's level is unlikely. I can see him being on roughly Remco's level, but I think because of Pog's weak-ish team, Almeida will be at a disadvantage in terms of fighting for the podium due to domestique work. Top 5 is definitely on the cards though, and the Vuelta can be interesting especially if he's actually holding back a bit more for his build-up this year.

Maybe. I don't think he prepared to win either because his schedule was supposed to be a domestique in the Volta Catalunya.

But what I was referring to is that in Switzerland, his level was already at this level. He was far superior than a higher participation than this year.And that's even though he let Adam Yates win some stages and GC, otherwise the gap to the rest would´ve been bigger.

I don't see that huge jump in level that they're talking about. As you rightly say, the difference is that he's shown the same level as last year's Switzerland in previous races because he's gone to lead them. But he already had this level in TDS.

The conclusions after Algarve that he would beat Vingegaard in the Tour were crazy. Just as some even said Jorgenson would be co-leader in Visma in the Tour because he won Paris-Nice (against Almeida, by the way).

 

[Red Rick]

Nah, 2 days ago he could have just ridden tempo to wreck everyonecon tge final climb if he had last year's legs. Clearly peaking for the Vuelta to ride for himself

He's already paying for going harder in the spring.

 

[P4rthen0n]

There's no doubt that hardly anyone except Almeida and probably Onley from this race would have gone top 10 in the Dauphiné.

I think Almeida would have been 3rd/4th in this year's Dauphiné.

Onley, Felix Gall and maybe Vauquelim could have fought for the top10, because they are on a similar level to some of the guys that finished in the top10 in the Dauphiné (Tobias, Paul Seixas or Guillaume Martin) and others were clearly out of shape (Enric Mas, Carlos Rodriguez).

But who cares... both races are meant to get guys into shape for the Tour.