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Jonas Vingegaard: Godzilla, the King of Monsters

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A new testing regime for 2023 and Vingegaard takes a significant step back and can't close 15 seconds on Gaudu without seemingly blowing up and being overtaken by others, leading to loss of a jersey and almost certainly loss of a race. Yes, it's early season, its not a GT and Vingegaards tactics were mindless, but it's hard to believe he was sandbagging to lose. A very interesting development as it's hard to believe he'd be so poor compared to Gaudu in an identical scenario in 2022. Last year he could have had a lobotomy mid-climb and still finish top two.
 
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A new testing regime for 2023 and Vingegaard takes a significant step back and can't close 15 seconds on Gaudu without seemingly blowing up and being overtaken by others, leading to loss of a jersey and almost certainly loss of a race. Yes, it's early season, its not a GT and Vingegaards tactics were mindless, but it's hard to believe he was sandbagging to lose. A very interesting development as it's hard to believe he'd be so poor compared to Gaudu in an identical scenario in 2022. Last year he could have had a lobotomy mid-climb and still finish top two.
He reminds me LA which means he'll be ready for Le Tour.
 
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A new testing regime for 2023 and Vingegaard takes a significant step back and can't close 15 seconds on Gaudu without seemingly blowing up and being overtaken by others, leading to loss of a jersey and almost certainly loss of a race. Yes, it's early season, its not a GT and Vingegaards tactics were mindless, but it's hard to believe he was sandbagging to lose. A very interesting development as it's hard to believe he'd be so poor compared to Gaudu in an identical scenario in 2022. Last year he could have had a lobotomy mid-climb and still finish top two.
Tbf, so far the climbing times don't suggest that the new testing regime has changed anything, if anything it looks like more teams are catching up...
 
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A new testing regime for 2023 and Vingegaard takes a significant step back and can't close 15 seconds on Gaudu without seemingly blowing up and being overtaken by others, leading to loss of a jersey and almost certainly loss of a race. Yes, it's early season, its not a GT and Vingegaards tactics were mindless, but it's hard to believe he was sandbagging to lose. A very interesting development as it's hard to believe he'd be so poor compared to Gaudu in an identical scenario in 2022. Last year he could have had a lobotomy mid-climb and still finish top two.
Last year at this time Viggo was farther behind Poggo. Moreover, Poggomeister is targeting classics, whereas the Viggotinator is not. Which is all to say, who knows what's going on, but you cannot extrapolate too much from the results in this race.
 
Imagine the reactions in France if Gaudu gets blown away by Vingegaard in the summer? After handily bettering him in Paris-Nice? There will be pitchforks.

But seriously I'll candidly suggest Vingegaard is in trouble this season, especially with regards to the TdF & its profile (despite most comments downplaying the importance of Paris-Nice). The almost total lack of ITT means he's going to be going toe-to-toe against Pogacar on climbs with others like Gaudu still in the mix in GC & I have absolutely no belief whatsoever in Vingegaard's race craft. He'll attack when he shouldn't, chase when he shouldn't & won't have Rog there to two prong attack Pogacar. He'll be on his own & sitting on Pog's wheel all the time won't work this time because he won't have that advantage he gained on Granon.

Even today he made mistakes chasing Pog when he should let Gaudu do all the work. I think Vingegaard has limitations which brute force watts won't be able to compensate for in the summer. I also say he's not going to drop Pogacar on any climb. Not anymore. UAE will make sure of that.
 
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Imagine the reactions in France if Gaudu gets blown away by Vingegaard in the summer? After handily bettering him in Paris-Nice? There will be pitchforks.

But seriously I'll candidly suggest Vingegaard is in trouble this season, especially with regards to the TdF & its profile (despite most comments downplaying the importance of Paris-Nice). The almost total lack of ITT means he's going to be going toe-to-toe against Pogacar on climbs with others like Gaudu still in the mix in GC & I have absolutely no belief whatsoever in Vingegaard's race craft. He'll attack when he shouldn't, chase when he shouldn't & won't have Rog there to two prong attack Pogacar. He'll be on his own & sitting on Pog's wheel all the time won't work this time because he won't have that advantage he gained on Granon.

Even today he made mistakes chasing Pog when he should let Gaudu do all the work. I think Vingegaard has limitations which brute force watts won't be able to compensate for in the summer. I also say he's not going to drop Pogacar on any climb. Not anymore. UAE will make sure of that.
I mostly agree with that, but Sepp and Kruijswijk (and Van Aert) should still be strong enough that IF Vingegaard has the watts, they can brute force the outcome.
 
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Just wrote it in the Pogacar thread - why are we thinking July will be so different than last year when so far the Pogacar vs. Vingegaard H2Hs have been very similar to last year.

I myself think Pogacar is taking the TdF way more serious due to the defeat, so will be stronger than last year. But I fully expect JV and Vingegaard to come prepared as well.
 
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Just wrote it in the Pogacar thread - why are we thinking July will be so different than last year when so far the Pogacar vs. Vingegaard H2Hs have been very similar to last year.

I myself think Pogacar is taking the TdF way more serious due to the defeat, so will be stronger than last year. But I fully expect JV and Vingegaard to come prepared as well.
Pogacar is in the same shape than he was last year on TA. So, i don't know if he will be stronger in the tour than he was in 2020, 2021 and 2022. I think pogacar already reached his peak, and is a high peak.

The question is, can vingegaard comeback to the tour 2022 in the same shape than he was last year? Can he still improve his peak shape this year, in july?
We will see the answer to that questions in july.

If Vingegaard at least will be able to be at the same shape of tour 2022, i think he is the favourite to win the tour. If he will be in worst shape, pogacar will win.

Pogacar is a more complete rider than Vingegaard, i can't deny that, but that's doesn't mean he will for sure win the tour this year, because Vingegaard is a mutant in july. At least he was last year.
 
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The question is, can vingegaard comeback to the tour 2022 in the same shape than he was last year?
Why wouldn't he though?

Also agree that Pogacar probably kind of is at his peak already. But I have the feeling that there are still some gains to be made towards the Tour with being fully focused. To some degree I have the feeling that last year he was too confident. Not sure if that will be enough vs. Vingegaard though.
 
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can you expand on this? not doubting your logic, I'm genuinely curious about what has changed. that could be a factor in his performance for sure, but I believe it's probably more because it's March and he seems like he needs one big "superpeak" to match Pogacar at the Tour, while Pogacar can ride at this level all season long.

The changes are closing the 2200hr to 0600hrs immunity from being tested and adding a new element to the biological passport for monitoring growth hormone.

“At present, the ABP is there to detect two main substance classes. The hematological module of the ABP is used to detect blood doping, whether it is transfusion or whether it is EPO. And the steroidal module helps to detect steroid doping and different types of steroids. We are also launching in 2023, the endocrine module that will target growth hormone doping"

“If there is an indication of use of substances with a short detection window, that could say, come from different investigations or different sources of information. Now, anti-doping organizations have the ability and are authorized to test the athletes 24 hours seven days a week. Earlier, there was a window from 6 am to 10 pm. Because of this very short detection window, there was that adaptation of the code and now is possible, of course with a justification, to test the athlete during the night, for example.”

 
PogacarPogacar is a more complete rider than Vingegaard, i can't deny that, but that's doesn't mean he will for sure win the tour this year, because Vingegaard is a mutant in july. At least he was last year.
And the year before (Ventoux). I am not a fan of Vingegaard precisely because he mutates. And his mutation was way too convenient knowing Roglic was injured and Jumbo badly needed him to step up. Viola!

But July should be interesting to say the least.
 
Pogacar is in the same shape than he was last year on TA. So, i don't know if he will be stronger in the tour than he was in 2020, 2021 and 2022. I think pogacar already reached his peak, and is a high peak.

The question is, can vingegaard comeback to the tour 2022 in the same shape than he was last year? Can he still improve his peak shape this year, in july?
We will see the answer to that questions in july.

If Vingegaard at least will be able to be at the same shape of tour 2022, i think he is the favourite to win the tour. If he will be in worst shape, pogacar will win.

Pogacar is a more complete rider than Vingegaard, i can't deny that, but that's doesn't mean he will for sure win the tour this year, because Vingegaard is a mutant in july. At least he was last year.

I agree with the notion that since 2020 Pogacar's form in stage-races is on similar level (he's in his prime since then). I still think he can ride Tour in 2023 better than 2022 (as his best one was actually 2021). Not necessarily regarding pure wattage but its utilization: riding more conservatively and more often on Vinge's wheel and waiting patiently for his moment to attack (also keep in mind he's more explosive close to the finish so can gain seconds there). I know, it doesn't fit Pog's style at all but he will be more cautious in the summer knowing that Vinge can hurt him (it was already seen on wednesday when Vinge attacked and Pog only sticked to his wheel until realizing Vinge was not as strong as he thought).
 
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The changes are closing the 2200hr to 0600hrs immunity from being tested and adding a new element to the biological passport for monitoring growth hormone.

“At present, the ABP is there to detect two main substance classes. The hematological module of the ABP is used to detect blood doping, whether it is transfusion or whether it is EPO. And the steroidal module helps to detect steroid doping and different types of steroids. We are also launching in 2023, the endocrine module that will target growth hormone doping"

“If there is an indication of use of substances with a short detection window, that could say, come from different investigations or different sources of information. Now, anti-doping organizations have the ability and are authorized to test the athletes 24 hours seven days a week. Earlier, there was a window from 6 am to 10 pm. Because of this very short detection window, there was that adaptation of the code and now is possible, of course with a justification, to test the athlete during the night, for example.”


I love this sort of cops & robbers style intrigue/cloak & dagger behind the scenes stuff.

I won't speculate regarding this current season (not yet anyway, i.e. bigger conclusions can be drawn later) but all I know is Tyler Hamilton's book was a bit of an eye opener on the issue of riders constantly having to switch methods & stay ahead of the testers with new techniques. It went from casually taking EPO like it was a morning coffee to needing more elaborate schemes like microdosing EPO & then combining EPO with blood transfusions etc. No idea what these guys are currently doing but I doubt the landscape is entirely different (or that the rules of the game have changed).

So keep an eye out for xyz riders who did fantastically well suddenly suffering an inexplicable Iban Mayo style collapse. It can mean something has changed behind the scenes & their well has dried up.

Because I'm obviously not one of those who thinks the pro-peloton is fuelled only with water & natural ability. There's a reason some riders make huge leaps forward when others don't. And also vice versa, i.e. some riders falling off a cliff in terms of performance for no apparent reason whatsoever.

It's the nature of the clinical underworld of cycling.
 
Mayo was so ridiculous ahead of the Tour 2004 that maybe the American sheriff told the UCI to keep an eye on him :tearsofjoy:
It won't happen again with Vinge and loving-everybody Teddy, will it?

Poor Iban Mayo. What a TdF that could have been as well, i.e. something to rival the wonderment of radioactive 1997. It's the democratisation of clinical matters, aka also known as trickle down economics where eventually methods become widespread & cheaper, thus allowing everyone & their dog to join the fun. That's why 2003 was the best TdF ever of its era.

Broadly speaking nowadays if I was a high ranking staff member at Jumbo Visma, it's Tom Dumoulin who would be giving me sleepless nights. Ever since his sudden "I'm taking a break from the sport" announcement early 2021 literally a day or so after talking about his excitement for the upcoming season, I've been dying to know what happened there. And considering his own personal problems (like his divorce) & what appears like a quest to find himself in his new retired phase (I saw on his Instagram he went & rode his bike in Nepal!), I have him pegged as the most likely spill the beans guy associated with any of these top ranked UCI teams & obviously Jumbo.

They should never have hired the guy. They should never have hired Jonas Vingegaard either or transformed him from random gregario to GT winner IMO. So far, it's worked out okay for them but considering the rumored personal problems affecting his Paris-Nice performance it's worth noting this is a rider who has (like Dumoulin) suffered from psychological weaknesses in the past. In order to stay the course in the business, riders need to have mutated physical abilities but also (more importantly) the mindset of a Terminator. For example people can say what they want about Chris Froome (I have done so myself), but there's no question he's ice cold.

Vinge? Nah, I sense emotional trouble there. Not like Pogacar who's a silent assassin type & unfazed by anything. I mention all this because IMO it's not so much a would-be sheriff who'll spoil the current era's clinical free-for-all, but more likely the mistake (& weakness) of someone within the organization which could bring it all tumbling down.
 
Poor Iban Mayo. What a TdF that could have been as well, i.e. something to rival the wonderment of radioactive 1997. It's the democratisation of clinical matters, aka also known as trickle down economics where eventually methods become widespread & cheaper, thus allowing everyone & their dog to join the fun. That's why 2003 was the best TdF ever of its era.

Broadly speaking nowadays if I was a high ranking staff member at Jumbo Visma, it's Tom Dumoulin who would be giving me sleepless nights. Ever since his sudden "I'm taking a break from the sport" announcement early 2021 literally a day or so after talking about his excitement for the upcoming season, I've been dying to know what happened there. And considering his own personal problems (like his divorce) & what appears like a quest to find himself in his new retired phase (I saw on his Instagram he went & rode his bike in Nepal!), I have him pegged as the most likely spill the beans guy associated with any of these top ranked UCI teams & obviously Jumbo.

They should never have hired the guy. They should never have hired Jonas Vingegaard either or transformed him from random gregario to GT winner IMO. So far, it's worked out okay for them but considering the rumored personal problems affecting his Paris-Nice performance it's worth noting this is a rider who has (like Dumoulin) suffered from psychological weaknesses in the past. In order to stay the course in the business, riders need to have mutated physical abilities but also (more importantly) the mindset of a Terminator. For example people can say what they want about Chris Froome (I have done so myself), but there's no question he's ice cold.

Vinge? Nah, I sense emotional trouble there. Not like Pogacar who's a silent assassin type & unfazed by anything. I mention all this because IMO it's not so much a would-be sheriff who'll spoil the current era's clinical free-for-all, but more likely the mistake (& weakness) of someone within the organization which could bring it all tumbling down.
Not that you’re necessary wrong with your conclusion in the last paragraph, but historically it’s been police investigations, raids, or “oops look what we found” discoveries(e.g. Festina) that shake up the doping landscape, at least temporarily. That’s why it’s so hard to convince Americans, including friends and family, that doping in mainstream U.S. is at the same level or even greater than in cycling—because the testing is incredibly lax compared to cycling (ha, imagine blood testers showing up on LeBron’s doorstep at 7:00am—they wouldn’t even get through the front gate!) but it’s also not criminalized here so they don’t have to police raiding their hotel rooms.
 
Not that you’re necessary wrong with your conclusion in the last paragraph, but historically it’s been police investigations, raids, or “oops look what we found” discoveries(e.g. Festina) that shake up the doping landscape, at least temporarily. That’s why it’s so hard to convince Americans, including friends and family, that doping in mainstream U.S. is at the same level or even greater than in cycling—because the testing is incredibly lax compared to cycling (ha, imagine blood testers showing up on LeBron’s doorstep at 7:00am—they wouldn’t even get through the front gate!) but it’s also not criminalized here so they don’t have to police raiding their hotel rooms.
As minor as doping in sports may be in the grand scheme of things, it’s quite concerning the general public can be so naive.

On the topic of uncovering a scandal, I do think we’re due for some whistleblowers soon and a guy like Dumoulin might be the first.
 
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