Jonas Vingegaard Rasmussen, the new alpha mutant

[deej1]

So Van Aert in theory can do about 450W for the duration of the Tour ITT.

Probably not after 3 weeks in the Tour, but even at 400 something watts for Van Aert, Vingegaard was probably doing something around 6 W/kg in the TT position to compete for the win up til the last few km.

6w/kg tt sounds realistic relative to his climbing power if he worked on his TT?

 

[roundabout]

6w/kg tt sounds realistic relative to his climbing power if he worked on his TT?

It's an extremely ballpark estimate with perhaps somewhat implausible assumptions about Vingegaard's aerodynamics as I doubt that doing ~360 Watts would be enough to win a 50 kmh average TT.

 

[deej1]

It's an extremely ballpark estimate with perhaps somewhat implausible assumptions about Vingegaard's aerodynamics as I doubt that doing ~360 Watts would be enough to win a 50 kmh average TT.

I think there was a tailwind that picked up for later riders.

 

[ciranda]

Most fans might be happy with entertainment. I like it to be fair.

You're super mad and outraged, ok that's cool, but maybe try to add content. What is a super responder? Blood manipulation is the most likely sort of method used, no? If it's something else, another substance or method, then what? And then when you reference wikipedia for results and talk about the dutch time trial championships it gets hard to take seriously.

This is someone that did have great results early. If you want, check my earlier post with the three italicized sentences to make it easy to respond to. #2477 in this discussion https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/tadej-pogacar-and-mauro-giannetti.36206/page-100#post-2741667

 

[roundabout]

I think there was a tailwind that picked up for later riders.

Forecast before the stage was for a NW wind and I do not remember tailwind being mentioned.

Anyway, running some calcs for a 60 kilo rider to average 50.5 kmh at ~6 W/kg his CdA needs to probably be less than 0.20.

And that would probably be bordering on something one can see on the track where I think a different position is allowed.

 

[roundabout]

You're super mad and outraged, ok that's cool, but maybe try to add content. What is a super responder? Blood manipulation is the most likely sort of method used, no? If it's something else, another substance or method, then what? And then when you reference wikipedia for results and talk about the dutch time trial championships it gets hard to take seriously.

This is someone that did have great results early. If you want, check my earlier post with the three italicized sentences to make it easy to respond to. #2477 in this discussion https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/tadej-pogacar-and-mauro-giannetti.36206/page-100#post-2741667

I suppose if you repeat that Vingegaard's early results were great often enough, they suddenly do become that.

 

[Red Rick]

6w/kg tt sounds realistic relative to his climbing power if he worked on his TT?

It's also 300m average altitude, so W/kg should be higher than a HC climb.

 

[deej1]

Forecast before the stage was for a NW wind and I do not remember tailwind being mentioned.

Anyway, running some calcs for a 60 kilo rider to average 50.5 kmh at ~6 W/kg his CdA needs to probably be less than 0.20.

And that would probably be bordering on something one can see on the track where I think a different position is allowed.

Pretty sure it was mentioned in the commentary and I think sub .2 is achievable for small pros who work on their tt. perhaps only in the wind tunnel though (?)

 

[samhocking]

Vingo did attribute his TT performance improvements because the team got him in the wind tunnel and spend a lot of time on improving we assume CdA. Riders like Dan Bigham at 1.83m tall achieve around .17 cda on the track in a maintainable position and he's said his TT position is basically the same, you just add the drag of the brakes and drivetrain on a TT bike assuming you can maintain the same position as a track session. Certainly, the UCI rule changes have made the w/cda challenge much easier to realise for shorter/smaller GC riders like Vingo at 1.75 than larger taller GC riders like Thomas at 1.83m. I might be wrong, but I think UCI are next year changing the 190cm rule, so we should begin to see the taller/larger GC and TT specialist gain ground on the smaller GC guys again I assume as they can lower their CdA less restricted by the rules.

 

[roundabout]

Vingo did attribute his TT performance improvements because the team got him in the wind tunnel and spend a lot of time on improving we assume CdA. Small riders like Dan Bigham achieve around .17 cda on the track in a maintainable position and he's said his TT position is basically the same, you just add the drag of the brakes and drivetrain on a TT bike assuming you can maintain the same position as a track session. Certainly, the UCI rule changes have made the w/cda challenge much easier to realise for shorter/smaller riders than larger taller riders. I might be wrong, but I think UCI are next year changing the rules, so we should begin to see the taller/larger TT specialist gain ground on the smaller GC guys again I assume as they can lower their CdA further like the small guys.

I doubt any rider could corner well on the road with the track bikes bar widths.

Or with having 2 disc wheels.

So I am not sure why you are using track as an example of what can be possible on the road.

 

[deej1]

I doubt any rider could corner well on the road with the track bikes bar widths.

Or with having 2 disc wheels.

So I am not sure why you are using track as an example of what can be possible on the road.

Kind of useful information in the absence of road CDA's. Big guy gets .17 on track supports idea that wee guy Vingegaard achieving .20 on the road isn't too crazy..

 

[samhocking]

I doubt any rider could corner well on the road with the track bikes bar widths.

Or with having 2 disc wheels.

So I am not sure why you are using track as an example of what can be possible on the road.

I'm simply using known CdA figures of Bigham specifically because he's a larger rider than Vingo, so if Bigham is achieving around the .17 on the Track and TT bike, I think we can deduce Vingo is probably quite a way under .20 for his TT setup given jumbo even hired Bigham and other aerodynamicists and spend a lot of resource and time on the track testing TT and road positions.

 

[roundabout]

Kind of useful information in the absence of road CDA's. Big guy gets .17 on track supports idea that wee guy Vingegaard achieving .20 on the road isn't too crazy..

I don't think it's as simple as a big guy vs a wee guy (difference in height 8cm, btw). I think apart from the arm length the frontal area is more influenced by individual's flexibility (is there anything to suggest that smaller guys are more flexible than the bigger ones?),

 

[roundabout]

I'm simply using known CdA figures of Bigham specifically because he's a larger rider than Vingo, so if Bigham is achieving around the .17 on the Track and TT bike, I think we can deduce Vingo is probably quite a way under .20 for his TT setup given jumbo even hired Bigham and other aerodynamicists and spend a lot of resource and time on the track testing TT and road positions.

No, we can't deduce anything apart from it being not impossible.

There is not enough information to go by, simple as that.

 

[roundabout]

And if we are going to play the track to road setup game, I think Wiggins could have been under 0.2 for his record, so I guess 0.2 would then not be impossible on the road for Van Aert, huh?

Which then probably puts Vingegaard's needed CdA somewhere around 0.18 which is honestly bordering on impossible.

 

[samhocking]

You're missing the fact you said "And that would probably be bordering on something one can see on the track where I think a different position is allowed ". Riders like Wiggins Gaana, Bigham etc don't have a separate TT and track position and Bigham said his doesn't change other than the addition of the drag from TT bike brakes and gears. But yes we can neither know Vingo is above or below .17 CdA on TT bike, but I'd be surprised Jumbo are just spending money to not improve similarly to Bigham has for himself and many other riders.

 

[roundabout]

It's also 300m average altitude, so W/kg should be higher than a HC climb.

Is there anything to suggest no power loss for Vingegaard in a TT position (especially considering the extreme aerodynamics needed)? His road position looks to my eye to be different enough from his TT position to make such an assumption

 

[roundabout]

You're missing the fact you said "And that would probably be bordering on something one can see on the track where I think a different position is allowed ". Riders like Wiggins Gaana, Bigham etc don't have a separate TT and track position and Bigham said his doesn't change other than the addition of the drag from TT bike brakes and gears. But yes we can neither know Vingo is above or below .17 CdA on TT bike, but I'd be surprised Jumbo are just spending money to not improve similarly to Bigham has for himself and many other riders.

And how does that change anything? I mean I wrote I think, I did not state it as a fact.

Yes, we don't know, but somehow we (or rather you) can assume he is, because he is a 'wee' guy or whatever.

 

[deej1]

I don't think it's as simple as a big guy vs a wee guy (difference in height 8cm, btw). I think apart from the arm length the frontal area is more influenced by individual's flexibility (is there anything to suggest that smaller guys are more flexible than the bigger ones?),

It's not simply big v wee, but smaller people generally have lower CDAs. Taller and/or heavier riders typically have larger frontal areas - longer legs, wider shoulders etc. It's not just frontal areas, the length and shape of an object effects things a bit too.

I expect that smaller riders would be on average better at holding a TT position. Typically better strength to weight, including core strength, and and a compact body is easier to control. See yoga, gymnastics, callisthenics etc. I've no idea how much difference this would make though.

I think SamH makes a good point re the UCI rules limiting bike length and it'll be interesting to see if that does effect things.

 

[Red Rick]

Is there anything to suggest no power loss for Vingegaard in a TT position (especially considering the extreme aerodynamics needed)? His road position looks to my eye to be different enough from his TT position to make such an assumption

I would simply expect Vingegaard to hold like 6.3 or more for the duration of the TT if he could climb on 300m average altitude well rested

 

[roundabout]

I would simply expect Vingegaard to hold like 6.3 or more for the duration of the TT if he could climb on 300m average altitude well rested

Are you saying that Vingegaard can do 6.3 W/kg for 50 minutes on a road bike when rested, so 6 W/kg in a TT position would be normal?

Just to be sure that I am not misunderstanding you?

 

[Riek s]

Just as a reference, Remco pushes ~390W avg in TT position for 40minutes. (TT in Volta ao Algarve), and Remco road vs TT setup difference is rather small

If you assume same cda, which i highly doubt, he would need to push 6,5W/kg (assume 60kg base weight) in TT position to be comparable to Remco in the TT.

and I don't think Remco won a single TT against WVA? So either WVa is pushing relative low numbers and still dominates the field... Vingegaard should be pushing >6,5W/kg (accounting for higher cda, + potentially winning from WVA if he didn't stop pedalling).

(And i'm not sure he would still weigh 60kg at the end of a GT. typically you loose a little weight.)

 

[roundabout]

It's not simply big v wee, but smaller people generally have lower CDAs. Taller and/or heavier riders typically have larger frontal areas - longer legs, wider shoulders etc. It's not just frontal areas, the length and shape of an object effects things a bit too.

I expect that smaller riders would be on average better at holding a TT position. Typically better strength to weight, including core strength, and and a compact body is easier to control. See yoga, gymnastics, callisthenics etc. I've no idea how much difference this would make though.

I think SamH makes a good point re the UCI rules limiting bike length and it'll be interesting to see if that does effect things.

I mean the frontal area would be bigger for bigger people, but maybe not by as much as one would think. That's all.

For the Cd I don't have windtunnel eyes so I am not going to pretend that this TT position has less drag than that TT position.

I also wonder why you would think that a climber would have better core strength than a bigger guy who does not care that much about extra weight.

 

[Cookster15]

You're super mad and outraged, ok that's cool, but maybe try to add content. What is a super responder? Blood manipulation is the most likely sort of method used, no? If it's something else, another substance or method, then what? And then when you reference wikipedia for results and talk about the dutch time trial championships it gets hard to take seriously.

This is someone that did have great results early. If you want, check my earlier post with the three italicized sentences to make it easy to respond to. #2477 in this discussion https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/tadej-pogacar-and-mauro-giannetti.36206/page-100#post-2741667

I am merely wanting a convincing explanation. I now see much discussion of his inexplicable for a sub 60Kg climber TT so I am pleased that by asking questions it has prompted people to think. And yes blood manipulation is likely how, substances are likely to get detected one way or another, even in retrospective testing.

As for Wiki, can you explain the dearth of results compared to Pog? Wiki is editable by anyone, including well funded teams like JV who can pay people to do this. If there is anything inaccurate or omitted in Wiki then please do share? But why are the 2019 Danish time trial championships not relevant? Did this not happen? When was the last time WvA or any other accomplished TTer finished mid field in a TT?

Here is that CN article again:

Tour de France leader Jonas Vingegaard: Jumbo-Visma are totally clean, you have to trust us | Cyclingnews

 

[Baldinger]

But why are the 2019 Danish time trial championships not relevant? Did this not happen? When was the last time WvA or any other accomplished TTer finished mid field in a TT?

Vingegaard was still recovering from a fractured elbow when he did the Danish TT race in 2019.