Kittel vs. Cav in 2012: Who gets the booty?

[Mongolian Torque]

Anyone care to look into their crystal ball and describe the outcomes of these two going head to head, if they indeed get to do so?

I'm looking to get some good lines on William-Hill/Unibet...

 

[will10]

Why have ten sprinter threads, when you can have eleven.

 

[El Pistolero]

Why have ten sprinter threads, when you can have eleven.

I'm making a 12th!

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Cavendish, no doubt in my mind

 

[ferryman]

I think cavendish. Kittel is 23 yrs old and if you compare cavendish at that age kittel has 1 vuelta stage to cavendish"s 4 tour stages and 2 giro stages.

In the shorter stage races i can see kittel giving cav a run for his money but not really in the grand tour stages. I think he had real problems coming to terms with his first grand tour and had to pull out of the vuelta ater stage 12 saying he never felt so tired.

Pretty much this.

 

[theyoungest]

I think cavendish. Kittel is 23 yrs old and if you compare cavendish at that age kittel has 1 vuelta stage to cavendish"s 4 tour stages and 2 giro stages.

In the shorter stage races i can see kittel giving cav a run for his money but not really in the grand tour stages. I think he had real problems coming to terms with his first grand tour and had to pull out of the vuelta ater stage 12 saying he never felt so tired.

It's a little more fair to compare their respective first pro years, and there it doesn't really sway one way or the other... if anything, Kittel is slightly better, winning a GT stage in his first year plus being the most successful neo pro ever (in number of wins). Add to that it's his first year as an actual sprinter, and it's hard to conclude that Cav was better at this stage of his career.

 

[Mongolian Torque]

Why have ten sprinter threads, when you can have eleven.

Heheh... Campagnolo said the same thing about the 10speed drivetrain... I hope they go to 12 one day... Imagine that 1:1 ratio on a 11-22 block...

Anyhow, I digress, back to Kitt and Cav...

Kittel looks like he can go to Cavs house uninvited by simply going through the side wall.

Kittel's got some smarts it seems and didn't have a formidable train (HTC) to lead him out in some of those ' lesser ' races.

Lends to wonder (ad nauseum) how Cav will do with out that HTC train...

It should be a great show when they do meet up and methinks Kittel will be scooped up by some bigger, monied team later.

Any know when/where they might meet up?

 

[Ruudz0r]

Cav already gets the booby so its only fair if Kittel would get the booty

 

[taiwan]

Ya, Cav often has the grin of a man who gets his booty pretty much whenever he wants.

 

[Afrank]

At this time in history it would be Cavendish, give Kittel a couple more years and he'll have a chance of beating Cavendish.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

I think cavendish. Kittel is 23 yrs old and if you compare cavendish at that age kittel has 1 vuelta stage to cavendish"s 4 tour stages and 2 giro stages.

To compare how good a rider was at a certain age really doesn't tell you a lot I believe. Human bodies don't evolve all alike. Just think of Popovych and the elite Group of GT riders.

In the shorter stage races i can see kittel giving cav a run for his money but not really in the grand tour stages. I think he had real problems coming to terms with his first grand tour and had to pull out of the vuelta ater stage 12 saying he never felt so tired.

The point about the Vuelta isn't really fair. Kittel had been racing and winning since the Tour of Langkawi in January! So after a long year as a neo pro, he still managed to come in 3rd at a finish that really was't supposed to be any good for him and won stage in his very first GT later on as well. To be very very tired after 12 days of hard racing after a long and sucessfull year isn't a shame at all - not even as a veteran professional, let alone a neo-pro.

It has already been pointed out that Kittel also had his first year as a sprinter really. They more or less discoverd he was that strong by accident in training. So he got the chance to be sprint-caiptan of the team at some of the stages in Malaysia. Out of 3 sprints he went for came one win and two fith places. Of course he knew how to sprint beforehand, but it's still pretty amazing. Also in the Vuelta there were only 2 sprits for Kittel in that 12 stages, he got 3rd and 1st out of those.

Kittel is a brutally powerfull sprinter, and I am very sure given the circumstances he can and will beat Cav. If he'd be able to do so in a real head to head sprint situation I don't know. But Kittel to me seems to be already at least in the group of guy's behind Cav who can beat him occasionally. Especially in long sprints I think he's got a very good shot.

I btw. belive that this is the most, if not the only interesting Cav v. X thread, simply because they have never met before (same goes for Renshaw though). So here's actually still a lot room for specualtion left. A comparisson of trains is really everything you can intellegently add to a Cav v. Greipel, Greipel v. Farrar, Farrar v. Cav, Petacchis vs. Age, Cav vs. Alberto Contador, Alberto Contavor vs. Cav (now on the Alpe) discussion. The pure speed in comparision of the guys is already know to us. And great progress can't be detected by starring a old riders stats and race situation reactions. It just happens. So "he'll be so much stronger next year out of no reason" isn't an interesting opinion really.
With Cav and Kittel, we only have indirect comparisions available, that makes speculation much more interesting.

 

[greenedge]

If Kittel gets a few more years he has a great chance of beating Cav, he is still very young. However the only race before the TDF i can see them racing together will be M-SR. At the TDF Cavs' experience will be enough ( though his train might not be as good as at HTC ). At the Olympics i would prefer for Kittel to have to race for Greipel.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Cav, but I'd love Kittel to beat him.

 

[Morbius]

A variation on this question:
How many years before Kittel v Cav becomes an equal match-up?

I'd predict not in 2012, but perhaps in 2013/4

 

[c&cfan]

A variation on this question:
How many years before Kittel v Cav becomes an equal match-up?

I'd predict not in 2012, but perhaps in 2013/4

2018&2019

for those STILL talking about trains..
everytime i saw cav in a big race at a finish line without a train he won in a amazing way..

MSR, 2010 last tour stage, this year ahead of gilbert, etc etc.

some of you are pathetic.

 

[Angliru]

It's a little more fair to compare their respective first pro years, and there it doesn't really sway one way or the other... if anything, Kittel is slightly better, winning a GT stage in his first year plus being the most successful neo pro ever (in number of wins). Add to that it's his first year as an actual sprinter, and it's hard to conclude that Cav was better at this stage of his career.

I'm going with this but then I think Cav is a bit of whiner when things don't go as planned, so I'm a bit biased.

 

[Angliru]

Heheh... Campagnolo said the same thing about the 10speed drivetrain... I hope they go to 12 one day... Imagine that 1:1 ratio on a 11-22 block...

Anyhow, I digress, back to Kitt and Cav...

Kittel looks like he can go to Cavs house uninvited by simply going through the side wall.

Kittel's got some smarts it seems and didn't have a formidable train (HTC) to lead him out in some of those ' lesser ' races.

Lends to wonder (ad nauseum) how Cav will do with out that HTC train...

It should be a great show when they do meet up and methinks Kittel will be scooped up by some bigger, monied team later.

Any know when/where they might meet up?

In Cav's defense each year that his main lead out left for greener pastures there was the questioning of if Cav would still be the dominant force, but each time he still showed he was head and shoulders above the rest of the sprinters. As you say though this year he's on an entirely different team with mixed priorities. He will still be the primary focus but can this new team emulate the success of HTC in the sprints? I'm certainly hoping that Kittel or Degenkolb can rise, giving Cav something to mutter about after repeatedly being challenged and losing. Then we'll see what kind of sportsman he is when he actually has someone to give him a run for his money.