le Tour 2011 top 10 GC contenders and pretenders

[just some guy]

Right so we are coming closer to finishing the last lead up race to the tour.

Who has peaked too early ?
Who is showing good signs ?
Who is showing nothing but will ride well anyway ?
Who is now looking to the Vuelta ?


People aiming for the top 10.

ROCHE Nicholas
EVANS Cadel
SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel
ROY Jérémy
CUNEGO Damiano
SCHLECK Andy
SCHLECK Frank
BASSO Ivan
SOLER HERNANDEZ Juan Mauricio
VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen
VINOKOUROV Alexandre
VELITS Peter
GESINK Robert
CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto
PORTE Richie
URAN Rigoberto
WIGGINS Bradley
KERN Christophe
HESJEDAL Ryder
VANDEVELDE Christian
BRAJKOVIC Janez
HORNER Christopher
KLÖDEN Andreas
LEIPHEIMER Levi
Coppel Jérôme

Edit it appears that I did miss some "outside" folks
added

Martin Tony
Taaramäe Rein
Rojas Jose Joaquin
Van Garderen Tejay


I put Kern in after his great ride over last week but in reality I can see him and Tommy V doing their 1 -2 Eurocar show again and it will be great to watch.

I think that's all Cant see anyone from Katusha, Vacansoleil-DCM or Cofidis even getting close, so 29 does not go into 10.

Before anyone says we need to see the tour de Suisse end 1st I think we can already see whats happening. Frank and Soler going for the win with Kloden and Andy riding to get racing km´s.

the other problem is there are 2 races for the podium spots if everyone rides to their ability as I can see it.

We have a race in 2 for 1st - 2nd and a race of 6 for 3rd.

We have a couple of teams who have no leader that will be worked out on the road.

So whats your top 10 ?

here is mine.

1. CONTADOR
2. SCHLECK Andy
3. GESINK
4. SANCHEZ
5. VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen
6. EVANS Cadel
7. HORNER Chris
8. WIGGINS Brad
9. SOLER HERNANDEZ Juan Mauricio
10. VANDEVELDE Christian

The problem I have with the list is that the people from 3rd to 7th all could finish 3rd depends on how smart they race.

I think Frank will have to work too hard to try and break Contadorrrrr and will loss big chunks of time at the end of stages.

Wiggins road a great race last week but maybe showing form too early and a ITT at the end of 3 weeks will be a different animal-

Is Evans a dead horse maybe but looking again at the last 2 stages of Critérium du Dauphiné he really did not look good but followed wheels and still finished 2nd - Swedish Eurosport guys said that Cadel had said he is riding at 80%

VDB2 and Gesink - really hard to gauge form- VDB2 showing signs most of the race, even on the ITT and if Gesink has any form he should have road away from the 2 french guys yesterday.

Samu and Andy shown not much but they did not last year either.

Basso and Roche their crashes have come at the worst time and I think are looking with 1 eye to the Veulta.

Soler looks good again, but can not ITT and may crash on a down hill so who knows.

what are your thoughts?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Call me a fool but I hate how people are saying Contador is definetly going to win the tour. Nobody, yes nobody is unbeatable.

Anyway, I'd rather wait till after the Tour de Suisse to comment.

 

[just some guy]

Call me a fool but I hate how people are saying Contador is definetly going to win the tour. Nobody, yes nobody is unbeatable.

Anyway, I'd rather wait till after the Tour de Suisse to comment.

I think it is a race in 2 Andy V´s Contadorrr, but Andy has Big brother to try and work Contador over.

Kind of think a school yard fight , 2 kids who used to be friends have a verbal fight over something, then big brother comes over to beat down his youngers old BFF and then at the end Big brother says to younger brother now you punch and kick him he can´t fight back.

Thats the Lepo plan, the thing is that I can see Gesink and VDB2 trying to get into the fight as well and blow themselves up.

Last year Samu and Menchov mostly road at their own pace

 

[spalco]

Kind of think a school yard fight , 2 kids who used to be friends have a verbal fight over something, then big brother comes over to beat down his youngers old BFF and then at the end Big brother says to younger brother now you punch and kick him he can´t fight back.

Yeah, but the thing is, as we saw in the Giro, when Contador is in top shape he's immune to that sort of tactic because he can just rocket away from everyone else at the foot of the climb and ride his own race. You don't have to cover any attacks if you're the one doing the attacking.

So I guess the question is, what shape will Contador be in?

 

[Reverend_T_Preedy]

Can't see Soler making top 10. Stage win maybe. He'll lose time in the TT and also in Vendee and Brittany if the wind blows.

My top 10.
1) Schleck, A.
2) Contador
3) Evans
4) Horner
5) Van Den Broeck
6) Schleck, F.
7) Hesjedal
8) Sanchez
9) Gesink
10) Wiggins

 

[Grzdylu]

Basso top 5 i think. He's like Sastre in 2008 - 20th in Dauphine and TdF victory.

 

[DenisMenchov]

My top 10:

1) Schleck A.
2) Van Den Broeck
3) Contador
4) Evans
5) Gesink
6) Wiggins
7) Schleck F.
8) Sanchez
9) Basso
10) Horner

 

[Ferminal]

Contenders:

Contador
Schleck
Schleck
Basso
Evans
Sanchez
Gesink
Van den Broeck
Horner
Klöden
Soler (if he stays upright)

Borderline:

Wiggins
Hesjedal
Vandevelde
Vinokourov
Brajkovic

Pretenders:

Leipheimer
Porte
Roche
Cunego
Uran

 

[just some guy]

Yeah, but the thing is, as we saw in the Giro, when Contador is in top shape he's immune to that sort of tactic because he can just rocket away from everyone else at the foot of the climb and ride his own race. You don't have to cover any attacks if you're the one doing the attacking.

So I guess the question is, what shape will Contador be in?

I agree the best form of defense is attack but he does have a Giro in his legs, a very hard Giro at that.

 

[The Hitch]

lol tony Martin hasnt even been named as a pretender.

Samu has unfortunately ****d hisself for this thread with his dire performance in Dauphine.

Cunego and Uran are definately more genuine contenders for top 10 than Porte and Roche.

Especially Porte coming off the back of a Giro.

I read some TDF preview mag yesterday and looking at the confidence with which Schleck assumes he is going to be at 110%, (no prizes for guessing where my mind wanders), im more than ever convinced that he will win in July.

Contador to lose it by the ttt margin or less.

I suppose if Schleck fails yet again, the Andy Schleck Outfit will put even less time trialing in next year.

 

[MajorTom]

Just for fun!

1. Brajkovic (if he doesn’t get sick once again)
2. Contador
3. Gesink
4. Schleck, A.
5. Van den Broeck
6. Soler
7. Schleck, F.
8. Sanchez
9. Evans
10. Klöden

 

[greenedge]

Hitch i was just about to say that ( lol ). Is the magazine Cycling Weekly as well??? I also don't know whether Leopard shall beat SBS by so much in the TTT and i think Alberto could just about get some form just before mountains and get that time back in ITT's. Uran will unless if Wiggans STARTS off bad not be able to make up enough time on the likes of the others in the top 10 ( conservative riding ) as he shall be working for Wiggans too. However he should not be stupid enough to give his all when he is a better climber than Wiggans, he can mark moves for Wiggans instead. Roche i think could get into the top 10 but is not so great at climbing. Porte will play the role of domestique for AC so will not get a chance to really get in the top 10.

the borderline for me would be:
Soler
Hesjedal
Jeremy Roy???
Kern
Taaramae
CVV
Uran
Kloden
Leipheimer
Roche
Porte
Vino
Brajkovic
TGBM
L L Sanchez
Kiryienka???
LTD
Coppel
Martin
Velits

All these guys could get in the top 10. I think none of these would be considered pretenders.

My outside hopes/ riders i want to go well the most are Kiryienka and Geraint Thomas. as top 20 ( maybe??? )

Top 10
Contador/ Andy
Andy/Contador
(JVDB
Evans
Gesink
Samu
Frank Shleck
Basso)
Kreuziger
Horner
Wiggins
Nibali
Hesjedal
Vino
Roche
Brajkovic/Kloden ( one will crash out????/ fail so bad )
Coppel
Taaramae
Soler
Leipheimer

My top 20 ( top 12 only to really win )

 

[just some guy]

Re Tony Martin.

Where does all this talk of Tony Martain and climbing come from ?

He has too much of a role in the first 10 days and will be worked over by the time they start going up.

He should be happy with who he is - The next best ITT can win over medium hilly 1 week stage races, but he is not a GT rider.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Jeremy Roy for top 10 ? no way....

Contenders

Contador
Schleck A
VdB
Evans
Gesink
Samu
Schleck F
Wiggins
VandeVelde
Brajkovic

 

[Anonymous]

oopsss... sorry

 

[dlwssonic]

this is andys best year to win it, and im very sure he will win it. He has the strongest team. A self proclaimed very tired contador. And a very mountainous course which suits him heavily. He has been showing us he has been improving year by year. I wont be shocked if he is better than he was at 2010. His team would also gain time in the TTT. with guys like canc, poosthuma, voigt, montfort, gerdemann, ogrady and fuglsang. that really is a super super team. he is the man to beat not contador.

 

[just some guy]

Jeremy Roy for top 10 ? no way....

Contenders

Contador
Schleck A
VdB
Evans
Gesink
Samu
Schleck F
Wiggins
VandeVelde
Brajkovic

I know but when I had my list of people aiming for it I only had Coppel from France so had to find some more, it is their race - Roy the talent that never.

 

[just some guy]

this is andys best year to win it, and im very sure he will win it. He has the strongest team. A self proclaimed very tired contador. And a very mountainous course which suits him heavily. He has been showing us he has been improving year by year. I wont be shocked if he is better than he was at 2010. His team would also gain time in the TTT. with guys like canc, poosthuma, voigt, montfort, gerdemann, ogrady and fuglsang. that really is a super super team. he is the man to beat not contador.

I really hope he does not win it.

I don´t want another there is only one race a year for me. I play in the hilly classics but really it is all about France.

But on a fun note if he does win then his old history teacher has to walk home from Paris to Luxembourg.

if you don´t know the story - A young Andy was day dreaming in History class, and his teacher asked what are you day dreaming about Andy ?

Winning the Tour de France.

Well if you do I will walk home from Paris, now concentrate on something important was what the teacher said.

 

[will10]

I'll do my top 10 after Suisse, but I hope anyone but Contador wins, just in case we have to take it off him...

 

[niidirull]

Might aswell add Rein Taaramäe to the list since his goal this year is top 10 in the Tour , even if it is unlikely to happen.

Sadly can't see anyone beating Contador at this years tour , hopefully someone will.

 

[Anonymous]

Leipheimer is a pretender every year ... heck..... reminds me of Pigs by The Floyd
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZD1hPJG-B8

 

[TeoSheva]

Re Tony Martin.

Where does all this talk of Tony Martain and climbing come from ?

He has too much of a role in the first 10 days and will be worked over by the time they start going up.

He should be happy with who he is - The next best ITT can win over medium hilly 1 week stage races, but he is not a GT rider.

maybe you are right... but if you put Porte in the GC contender, than you have to put not only Martin, but even Rojas...

 

[just some guy]

maybe you are right... but if you put Porte in the GC contender, than you have to put not only Martin, but even Rojas...

Added 4 more to the list

 

[taiwan]

Tony Martin for second in the long chrono and a top 20.

I posted a top ten in another thread, I'll need to see if I can find it. The names were (in no order) Contador, Schleck, Basso, Vino, Evans, Gesink, JVDB, Vande Velde, Horner, Sanchez.

[edit]

Contador
Schleck A.
Evans
Sanchez
Gesink
Vinokourov
Van den Broeck
Basso
Leipheimer
Vande Velde

 

[Archibald]

I'll take an early punt...

1. CONTADOR
2. SCHLECK Andy
3. SANCHEZ
4. GESINK
5. EVANS Cadel
6. VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen
7. SCHLECK Frank
8. BRAJKOVIC Janez
9. WIGGINS Bradley
10. Toss of a coin for this one - Vino/Basso