le Tour 2011 top 10 GC contenders and pretenders

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Evans and Wiggins looked evenly matched in one warm up race. Evans has looked better than Wiggins all year and in fact all career.

Evans could have a poor Tour, Wiggins could have an excellent one, but if you were a betting man and were given the same odds on each you'd be a fool to put your money on Wiggins finishing higher on GC.

I was only working with someone elses assessment that they are 'pretty equal in all other respects'.

Clearly that isn't the case, but it doesn't stop me making logical conclusions from a false premise.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I was only working with someone elses assessment that they are 'pretty equal in all other respects'.

I know. I was just hammering home the point that the starting premise was wrong.

 

[Cerberus]

Andy Shleck: *** Suisse wasnt convincing but he never is good for more than 4 weeks a year i think he ll be fine but no evidence what so ever of an improved tt
*snip*

How on Earth do you manage to rate Andy as equal to Horner and Kloeden and inferior to Gesink, Wiggins, Van Den Broeck and Levi? Seriously Horner?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Evans isn't over the hill, he is just incapable of going over the mountains with the big men.

 

[Dedelou]

no way he can be in top shape after the giro, unless he's been binging on steaks during his time off.

so you saying "training races are for nothing? "

 

[Dedelou]

Thanks. He posted his highest numbers on days he was attacking for time (Etna, Grossglockner and MTT) and somewhat lower numbers when he was following wheels (Zoncolon, Gardeccia and Finestre). At least that's how I look at it. I honestly think once it was clear (real clear) that none of these guys could handle him, he tried to avoid going into the red too much in advance of the Tour.

i am forever amazed to see how much apparently intelligent fans who relies on Numbers and statistics are constantly blind or uninformed about the external elements that contribute, on the road, to the making of those numbers. We have to factor, in any predictions, all the "important" possibilities that we know affect a rider's performances. The day to day development of the race. The fact that the TDF is above all about the power of Teams. The ways "non contenders " can affect the outcome of a stage. The changing health status of any racer during the three weeks. The private "tensions" existing within a team. The emotional reactions to press or fans during stages and many more variables practically impossible to list here.
One thing is probably certain: the top ten teams will line up close to 20 riders capable to make it within the top ten in Paris and the bottom ten teams will line up people capable to interfere with the plans of the top ten , of that I am sure.

 

[The Hitch]

Bradley Wiggins: **** Hes looking very good although he may have peaked early, if he can carry his form through and improve in the mountains as he says he can i think much to everyones disgust he could top 5

Levi: **** looking very good at suisse and looks like he ll improve as well
Kloeden: *** His suisse time trial was excellent and hes had a great season, think he ll always be a number 2 though
Horner: *** No Suisse or Dauphine but he looked excellent in california, he must be very confident but a step to far at 39??

Gesink: **** looked great in Dauphine proving doubters wrong and looked a month from the form of his life for me, the overall didnt reflect his ability but it was clearly a training race


ABOVE!!!!! (or equal to)

Andy Shleck: *** Suisse wasnt convincing but he never is good for more than 4 weeks a year i think he ll be fine but no evidence what so ever of an improved tt

Ivan Basso: * His Etna crash set him back and he was poor at the Dauphine, but liquigas not bringing any other options to the tour would indicate that they are backing him, the dauphine is also a long time before the tour



Cadel Evans: ** People may argue with 2 stars but for someone who is always on form the dauphine was far from convincing in the mountains and i believe he will be caught out in the high mountains of the tour, i dont believe he will improve much between now and the pyrenies as he is historically always on form



Samuel Sanchez: ** similar dauphine to lat year and a quiet build up, think he ll be in form but doubt he ll be in the top 5

( I never use these but, there just is no other option here)

 

[Dedelou]

This is just an assumption you are making.
AC rode very hard at the giro IMO, he won by a mile, but winning easily doesn't mean it was easy, rather his huge win should reflect how hard he did ride the giro.

The giro was tough, everyone in the top 10 dug deep, AC is no exception.



JB had nothing to do with Berto last year.
I suspect Ac was either to tired after the tour or he was just lazy. I don't get the vibe he really cares about the Vuelta. He certainly holds the tour in highest regard.

how can you say that about a rider who is the first winner of the vuelta-Giro-TDF in a very long time? You must have forgotten all the drama and previous team obligations that have illustrated AC's career so far. When or if Contador someday gets employed by a Spanish team, I bet you will see him performing in the Vuelta.

 

[Dedelou]

This is also true. Maybe this year Andy develops some tactical sense. I would certainly try to put the pressure on AC and others early and in unexpected stages.

just curious. Do you really think that tactical decision are left up to the smarts of the rider? I have never being inside a team car . But are you saying those DS are there to follow the race and clap when their riders win at the finish. I have the feeling what Andy or Contador does is "highly' influenced by tactical recommendations based on multiple input

 

[The Hitch]

This is just an assumption you are making.
AC rode very hard at the giro IMO, he won by a mile, but winning easily doesn't mean it was easy, rather his huge win should reflect how hard he did ride the giro.

The giro was tough, everyone in the top 10 dug deep, AC is no exception.



JB had nothing to do with Berto last year.
I suspect Ac was either to tired after the tour or he was just lazy. I don't get the vibe he really cares about the Vuelta. He certainly holds the tour in highest regard.

Contador had already podiumed Fleche, Podiumed Dauphine winning the 2 stages he had targeted, won PN and won of course the Tour.

He had achieved all he had set out for, and was clearly below par at the Tour. Was too tired and unmotivated to go for the Vuelta. No point. Another time.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

so you saying "training races are for nothing? "

I have no idea what you are talking about.
When did I say training races are for nothing.

how can you say that about a rider who is the first winner of the vuelta-Giro-TDF in a very long time? You must have forgotten all the drama and previous team obligations that have illustrated AC's career so far. When or if Contador someday gets employed by a Spanish team, I bet you will see him performing in the Vuelta.

One can only wonder if Astana had been at the tour in 08' if he would have ridden the giro and vuelta. I somehow doubt it.
As for riding for a spanish team, the choice was his. It is clear he priortises the tour. Many riders ride a full spring and then tour (+prep) and still ride the vuelta. My point was, if he has the ability to ride two GTs in a row why wouldn't he ride the vuelta in 09' and 10'? Like I said, maybe he was too tired, but it's nice that when it comes to the tour he is fully prepared to give it a go. I personally suspect he cares little for the vuelta in comparison.

---anyway:
My Star Ratings:

UNKNOWN: AC (obviously the clear fav. But I suspect he will struggle with fatigue in the final week. That being said a fatigued AC could still podium maybe. I dunno...

*****
Schleck -- Tho I'm starting to have some doubts.
****
Gesink -- I like his prep this season, I have a feeling he could come to the tour in the best form we've ever seen him.
Samu: -- low key, but he is a mature and intelligent rider with no obvious weak point. Can climb very well in top form.
***
VdB, Basso, Evans
**
Liepheimer, Horner, Schleck(F), Kloden, VDV, Wiggo, Cunego etc
*
Martin and other pretenders.

 

[Escarabajo]

Contador has won every grand tour he has entered so far. I do not think that trend will end. His form in the Giro was insane; he rode away from everyone and put in huge time gaps.

I do not have faith in Andy or Frank this year after watching their performance in Suisse. The time trialling is just not there and neither is the punchy climbing required to beat Contador.

My Top Ten:

1. Contador
2. Wiggins
3. Van DeBroek
4. Schleck
5. Gesink
6. Evans
7. Horner
8. Gadret
9. Kloden or Leipheimer
10. Vandevelde

You need to check your info in order to correct this sentence. Just saying.

 

[gustienordic]

Sorry...

You need to check your info in order to correct this sentence. Just saying.

I guess he has won every Grand Tour he has entered in lately, in which he was a strong favorite.

 

[Cerberus]

( I never use these but, there just is no other option here)

While I heartily agree with the sentiment that the sanity on anyone making that list is suspect "mad" in the context of the expression "U mad bro?" means angry rather than crazy.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I guess he has won every Grand Tour he has entered in lately, in which he was a strong favorite.

there is no precedent to suggest AC can do it twice in such short amount of time tho. it is a different situation.

But hey, there is no precedent suggesting he cant either.