Lieuwe Westra to win Le Tour? No Joke!

[The Chicken]

Remember this:
Paris-Nice
1 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 28:12:16
2 Lieuwe Westra (Ned) Vacansoleil-DCM +0:00:08

Forget this:
Critérium du Dauphiné
71 Lieuwe Westra (Ned) Vacansoleil-DCM +0:32:43

Now go read this:
http://velonews.competitor.com/2012/06/news/westra-working-ahead-for-tour-and-olympics_222909

And then consider this:
Tour odds
250-1 @ Stan James (v. low limit though)
200-1 elsewhere

I am just sayin'.

Thoughts?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Remember this:
Paris-Nice
1 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 28:12:16
2 Lieuwe Westra (Ned) Vacansoleil-DCM +0:00:08

Forget this:
Critérium du Dauphiné
71 Lieuwe Westra (Ned) Vacansoleil-DCM +0:32:43

Now go read this:
http://velonews.competitor.com/2012/06/news/westra-working-ahead-for-tour-and-olympics_222909

And then consider this:
Tour odds
250-1 @ Stan James (v. low limit though)
200-1 elsewhere

I am just sayin'.

Thoughts?

Yeah... no.

 

[Froome19]

Sure he has got something.

But the climbing there consisted of the 4km Mendee which has no indication when compare to the longer climbs of the Tour and even Tony Martin won PN does that make him a contender for the Tour?

The week long races are much more about form and fitness than about actual ability of course you have to be able to climb but you have to be in good form first and foremost and plenty of riders who are in good form can do well in these race yet are uncapable of performing at GTs.

If you are looking for a potential tour contender I think it would be much more wise to look at hit teamate Wout Poels who has shown he can climb with the very best on the Angliru even if his TT is a bit suspect..

 

[The Hitch]

An overhyped dutch rider?

well i never.

 

[Frosty]

I asked a few weeks ago about what people thought about him. He has no real record in GTs but taken in isolation his climbing performance at Mende + his ability in time trials suggest he could have some potential. Ok, so Mende is only 4km but at 10% it isnt one that a non-climber is going to win. However, we dont have any evidence that he will recover well enough to still be going well at the end of the tour, dont have any evidence for him doing well on stages with multiple mountains, or even one big mountain. These are all key to doing well at the tour. Had hoped the Dauphine would give some suggestions but he didnt do that well - then again the start of the tour is three weeks away and the final week is 5 weeks away, also not everyone who does well at the Tour does well at the Dauphine.

Last year it was autobusses all the way in the TdF but he may have had different aims or been trying to get into breaks on the flat stages. In the final TT he finished 17th on a lumpy course but was beaten by Andy Schleck. Might not have been that motivated i suppose and if he is climbing better now then he should be able to do better but to compare him to the surprise of the giro, thomas de Gendt, then de Gendt finished 4th in that time trial (after finishing 6th on alpe d'huez where Westra was in the autobus).

In short, if you are looking for someone to finish high up who has never finished that high up before, to do something like a Wiggins 2009, then he seems a good candidate. Not many would have thought that Vanendert would do as well as he did last year - i remember people laughing at me for suggesting he could make a select group of 30 on a climb yet he won one MTF and came second on another. However, it really is a big unknown. The performance of Poels and Ruijh will also have a bearing as they may be the team leader depending how things go. Personally, i think the best he could possibly do if everything went his way is come 10th, more likely around 20-30th, but given the unknowns he might only be capable of 80th.

 

[Panda Claws]

If you can find a decent top-20 or even top-10 bet go for it.

But to win...

 

[Froome19]

If you can find a decent top-20 or even top-10 bet go for it.

But to win...

Look at the contender list and then look at who he could realistically beat....

 

[The Chicken]

If you can find a decent top-20 or even top-10 bet go for it.

But to win...

So I did each way bet, to win and for podium spot @ 1/4 the to win odds. Never know...

 

[Richeypen]

Look at the contender list and then look at who he could realistically beat....

You never know though, how many contenders crashed out last year

 

[The Chicken]

You never know though, how many contenders crashed out last year

Exactement

 

[DominicDecoco]

I'd love Westra to reach a top-5.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Look at the contender list and then look at who he could realistically beat....

to be fair it is always like this, and almost every year there are surprises and disappointments. Reason only goes so far.

Anyway at OP if you wanna throw your money go for it

I predict all round dutch fail @ tour

 

[Bobby G]

I did summat similar in the Giro with De Gendt. Thought 500/1 was a bit generous so put £1 e/w (turned out i stake £10 e/w in error). Don't bet big or get you're hopes up, but if you see value @ 200/1 then I say have a cheeky little one.

 

[Panda Claws]

Look at the contender list and then look at who he could realistically beat....

Yeah top-10 seems unlikely, but if you want to bet big you have to bet on something unlikely.

Although the podium is a little bit too unlikely in my opinion.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

As long as we're making ludicrous predictions, I state that Andrea Guardini will podium the Vuelta in 2013.

Reason:
In 2010, Chris Froome was ejected from the Giro on stage 20 for holding on to cars (caveat: he'd crashed quite badly if I recall). 16 months later he sat on the podium.

In 2012, Andrea Guardini was ejected from the Giro on stage 20 for holding on to cars. Coincidence? I think not.

 

[Frosty]

As long as we're making ludicrous predictions, I state that Andrea Guardini will podium the Vuelta in 2013.

Reason:
In 2010, Chris Froome was ejected from the Giro on stage 20 for holding on to cars (caveat: he'd crashed quite badly if I recall). 16 months later he sat on the podium.

In 2012, Andrea Guardini was ejected from the Giro on stage 20 for holding on to cars. Coincidence? I think not.

Wrong, im afraid. Chris Froome was ejected for holding onto a motorbike on the 19th stage

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest/471148/froome-disqualified-from-giro-d-italia.html

Your entire line of reasoning is faulty

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I did summat similar in the Giro with De Gendt. Thought 500/1 was a bit generous so put £1 e/w (turned out i stake £10 e/w in error). Don't bet big or get you're hopes up, but if you see value @ 200/1 then I say have a cheeky little one.

First of all, the Giro is not the Tour (i'm talking about contenders).
Second of all, De Gendt is not Westra. Take that as you will.
And most obviously, 3rd place =/= win

 

[The Chicken]

As long as we're making ludicrous predictions, I state that Andrea Guardini will podium the Vuelta in 2013.

Reason:
In 2010, Chris Froome was ejected from the Giro on stage 20 for holding on to cars (caveat: he'd crashed quite badly if I recall). 16 months later he sat on the podium.

In 2012, Andrea Guardini was ejected from the Giro on stage 20 for holding on to cars. Coincidence? I think not.

LOLLLLLLLLL

 

[taiwan]

I did summat similar in the Giro with De Gendt. Thought 500/1 was a bit generous so put £1 e/w (turned out i stake £10 e/w in error). Don't bet big or get you're hopes up, but if you see value @ 200/1 then I say have a cheeky little one.

you jammy beggar.

 

[The Chicken]

I did summat similar in the Giro with De Gendt. Thought 500/1 was a bit generous so put £1 e/w (turned out i stake £10 e/w in error). Don't bet big or get you're hopes up, but if you see value @ 200/1 then I say have a cheeky little one.

Yup, awesome punting, nice 1.

Like I said I've backed Westra @ 200s EW so here's hoping De Gendt shares out his 'vitamins' with his teammates

 

[greenedge]

I think he could finish in the top 15. I would prefer if he did not have to help Poels ( but he does deserve a chance i suppose ).

 

[The Hitch]

to be fair it is always like this, and almost every year there are surprises and disappointments. Reason only goes so far.

Anyway at OP if you wanna throw your money go for it

I predict all round dutch fail @ tour

lol thats some predictions.

Even in bad scenarios, the dutch are likely to get something out of the tour through the Stalin method.

Throw as many people as possible at an objective and you will succeed.

I mean whats that, 6, 7 potential top 10ers from Holland?

 

[hrotha]

Westra's best GT GC was an 87th at the 2009 Vuelta. Only other GT he's done was the 2011 Tour, where he was 127th. I think he might improve on that.

 

[Ferminal]

Westra's best GT GC was an 87th at the 2009 Vuelta. Only other GT he's done was the 2011 Tour, where he was 127th. I think he might improve on that.

Looks good for a fourth place finish then

 

[CasperVg]

Not sure if Westra's recuperation is good enough to handle 3 weeks of racing yet, but if it is, then he has a decent chance for Top 10 with his ITT and climbing abilities, then again P-N was still early in the season and most of the climbers probably weren't in top shape yet, so his climbing abilities might be a bit overrated? It says in the article that he's mainly focussing on helping Wout Poels in the Tour though?