Likely Winner of the Tour, 2016

[Tonton]

As I wrote in another thread, Quintana has to win time back tomorrow. Otherwise, it will be death by a thousand of cuts. He can, and a shorter Ventoux isn't necessarily a bad thing. If the attack backfires, time loss may be small. Get a couple of guys in the BOD (there will be one with a Frenchman I won't name in it), and let them drop smart so Nairo has a ladder up the climb, attack mid-climb. It's a risk worth taking IMO.

 

[PremierAndrew]

I really don't get those odds. They were basically even, before the mountains and only because of a descent and crosswinds where Froome gained combined a little bit more than 30 seconds he is now suddenly way more likely to win? If anything I think that Quintana's chances got bigger since he didn't loose any time in the Pyrenees like in previous years. Of course the time loss is aggravating for Quintana but I still doubt that the tour will be decided by 30 seconds.

Odds reflect the market and the number of bets received, not necessarily actual likelihood to win. If I were a non-cycling fan and for some reason felt informed enough to make a bet, I'd look at the stats: Froome's gained time on Quintana, Quintana hasn't on Froome. By extrapolation, Froome will win the Tour.

That seems reasonable if you don't know too much about cycling, and is surely part of the reason why there's such a big disparity between Froome and Quintana's odds.

 

[Oliwright]

Quintana has shown no Spine in this tour, no attacks, didn't want to work to follow froome on descent and then bitches about the stage after he looses time.

I can't see him winning right now, even though i thought he would at the start of the race.

In an assessment of who is the most likely winner of the Tour, your dislike for the diminutive Colombian has barely any relevance for the outcome

I don't dislike him he's just been so poor in the race it's disappointing for the race.

Edit: You can't say that it shows the attitude of a Tour winner to expect him team mates to always do all the chasing and closing of gaps?

I think Quinatana is great for ten sport and I like him as a rider but, I'm disappointed by how he's raced this tour.
People can't say Froome is boring and praise Quintana when the guy sits on wheels for two weeks and then eventually attacks to late to try and win the tour. (It's effective but boring)

 

[SeriousSam]

Let's go back to 2015.
I was tracking the odds then too, and here's what we had:

Here's what we have up to this point (before the ITT, I'll update again later today).

Man is the Tour fun with the Dawg. So much intrigue as to who will win.