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Search for MH370 to end next week, Malaysia says
By Joseph Sipalan
23 May 2018 — 7:14pm
Kuala Lumpur: The search for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 by a private US firm will end next Tuesday and there will be no more extensions, Malaysian Transport Minister Anthony Loke said on Wednesday...
By Joseph Sipalan
23 May 2018 — 7:14pm
Kuala Lumpur: The search for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 by a private US firm will end next Tuesday and there will be no more extensions, Malaysian Transport Minister Anthony Loke said on Wednesday...
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I don't post much anymore, but wanted to comment as there have been quite a few articles surrounding this. The general assumption isn't that the pilot (captain most likely) didn't cause the aircraft to crash, which is what has been implied in a lot of headlines, but that he was likely unconscious, or virtually brain dead, like most of the passengers, when the plane finally went down. The dispute is that 60 Minutes (Australia) pondered whether the captain had retained consciousness throughout the flight, when it's unlikely he did.
I can understand why searches have been called off. It's 99% likely we know what has happened, and finding the wreckage will only confirm it, with likely nothing but cockpit noise, then some alarms on the CVR, and FDR showing the plane running out of fuel after being on autopilot for hours with zero controlled input. They have known for some time that the captain almost certainly locked out the first officer and anyone else, depressurized the cabin, changed course, shut the transponder off, and let the jet fly south into the deep, remote ocean before going down. He researched this on his own home computer, then deleted the files (found anyway), before taking this action. It's a tragic, ugly thought, and would be tough to prove in court, but it's by far the most likely scenario. The numerous bits of debris have confirmed where the plane likely went down, and damage to the debris indicated it crashed on it's own, likely in a steep dive, after running out of fuel.
Maybe in 5, 10 years some exploration or salvage crew will search and find the wreckage, but as I said, I am all but entirely confident it won't alter anything I've just written.
I can understand why searches have been called off. It's 99% likely we know what has happened, and finding the wreckage will only confirm it, with likely nothing but cockpit noise, then some alarms on the CVR, and FDR showing the plane running out of fuel after being on autopilot for hours with zero controlled input. They have known for some time that the captain almost certainly locked out the first officer and anyone else, depressurized the cabin, changed course, shut the transponder off, and let the jet fly south into the deep, remote ocean before going down. He researched this on his own home computer, then deleted the files (found anyway), before taking this action. It's a tragic, ugly thought, and would be tough to prove in court, but it's by far the most likely scenario. The numerous bits of debris have confirmed where the plane likely went down, and damage to the debris indicated it crashed on it's own, likely in a steep dive, after running out of fuel.
Maybe in 5, 10 years some exploration or salvage crew will search and find the wreckage, but as I said, I am all but entirely confident it won't alter anything I've just written.
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Re:
The odd thing is that the parts found have been quite large but obviously the debris trail over so much time over such a large expanse of ocean with storms and whatever means it was probably dispersed before they could ever find enough to track the rest of the wreckage.
I'm sure the controversy about the other Malaysian Airlines plane that was shot down over Ukraine will continue even with the release of the official report. Unlikely they will receive compensation such as the victim's families received eventually from the Libyan government re the Lockerbie disaster. If the Russians ever admit to it as an accident, they will want something in return for compensation, some sort of political leverage which seems unlikely at the moment or any time soon.
Alpe d'Huez said:
The odd thing is that the parts found have been quite large but obviously the debris trail over so much time over such a large expanse of ocean with storms and whatever means it was probably dispersed before they could ever find enough to track the rest of the wreckage.
I'm sure the controversy about the other Malaysian Airlines plane that was shot down over Ukraine will continue even with the release of the official report. Unlikely they will receive compensation such as the victim's families received eventually from the Libyan government re the Lockerbie disaster. If the Russians ever admit to it as an accident, they will want something in return for compensation, some sort of political leverage which seems unlikely at the moment or any time soon.
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I just picked up a copy of "MH370, Mystery Solved," by Larry Vance, published just this year. Vance was a crash investigator for the Canadian government for more than 30 years, lead investigator in more than 200 crashes and assisted in several hundreds more. Significantly, he was lead investigator in the crash of Swiss Air 111, an MD-11 that crashed into the North Atlantic off Nova Scotia after multiple system failures left the pilots with too narrow of a margin for error and they lost control. I refer to it as 'significant' because uncontrolled crashes into the sea are infrequent, so this the Swiss Air crash gave Vance the rare opportunity to go to school on the clues presented when such a crash happens. By all accounts he is one of the world's preeminent air crash investigators.
I think in an earlier post I linked to this video from an Australian 60 Minutes television show first aired in 2016. Mr. Vance is featured several times in it. In this film he covers analysis of the flap and flaperon, and his conclusion was exactly the same then as now. There have been additional pieces of wreckage from other areas of the aircraft recovered as well but the evidence from none of them contradicts Vance's earlier conclusion.
By the time of the 60 Minutes episode Vance already had had subject matter experts examine the flap and flaperon and they determined that both showed damage consistent with being in the extended position during a water landing. The flaps can't be extended unless both of two conditions are met: 1) someone moves the flap selector switch in the cockpit and 2) the flap actuating hydraulic system is pressurized. And there's no hydraulic power available unless at least one engine is operating. So there definitely was a functioning hand in the cockpit, probably with a similarly functioning pilot attached to it, and there still was fuel in the tanks.
So it didn't run out of fuel and crash, a pilot landed it (at least somewhat) softly on the water.
Before you go there, no, the loss of one engine will not force a commercial aircraft to land. All multiengine commercial aircraft must be able to continue to climb even if one engine fails at the instant it leaves the runway on takeoff, the point of flight at which the a/c is at its heaviest. Climbing requires thrust in excess of what is required to maintain level flight, so the loss of the thrust from one engine will not force a commercial a/c to land.
Vance also makes a big to-do of what he calls "the first anomaly," referring to the loss of response from MH370's transponder. Because a functioning transponder, which essentially is a wireless transmitter that broadcasts with an self-identifying code whenever swept by radar, makes an aircraft "visible" at distances far beyond those at which it could be seen entirely by radar signal bouncing off it and returning to the transmitter (known as the "primary return").
So switching a transponder off is just the sort of thing you'd do if you were preparing to disappear an airplane. Even if it malfunctions or catches fire, there's a spare transponder powered from a separate electrical circuit, so loss of the primary is no excuse for losing signal.
One minute and six seconds after MH370's final radio transmission, someone turned off the transponder and failed to switch on the back-up. The recording of that transmission still exists. There was no smoke alarm sounding and no indication of stress in the pilot's voice, and it is not possible that a battery fire in the cargo hold -- which has its own independent fire detection and suppression system -- could begun after the transmission, spread to the cockpit and disabled the transponder in so brief a time. Roughly two minutes after the transponder was switched off, MH370 reversed course and flew back over Malaysia.
Fifty-odd minutes later, military radar spotted MH370 well off-course, heading roughly WNW off the north end of Indonesia. That was the last time it was known to have been in radar contact.
Not quite seven hours after take-off, computers in MH370's Rolls Royce jet engines communicated with a maintenance company's satellite over the Indian ocean. Analysis indicated that that response came from somewhere roughly to the west of Australia, more than 2000 nautical miles south of Malaysia. This occurred more than one and one-half hours after the fight's scheduled time of arrival in Beijing, so MH370 would have been running on fumes. The RR engines where scheduled to check in again after another hour later but did not.
The forensic evidence from the flap and flaperon has direct implications to the cause of the "first anomaly." Because if MH370 was deliberately landed in the ocean after more than seven hours of controlled flight but before fuel exhaustion, there can be little doubt but that a pilot both turned off the transponder and flew the plane off-course.
Vance also goes through the alternate theories, at least the credible ones (he didn't waste time discounting CNN's resident idiot Don Lemon's "black hole" theory) and points out where each fails to satisfy some uncontested fact. The rogue pilot theory -- and only the rogue pilot theory -- fits with all the uncontested facts without any massaging.
He makes no effort to implicate either pilot but since the captain's home flight simulator bore evidence that he had rehearsed a flight path similar to that which MH370 is known to have flown, he suggests that it also is possible that whoever ditched the plane might also have studied the topography of the ocean floor and selected a landing location that specifically would make discovery of the airplane less likely, some place deep and rugged.
I paraphrase the author's "Summing Up" rather than quote to avoid copyright issues (page 299 in the eBook). The only possible scenario that satisfies all of the accepted 'facts' is that of a pilot deliberately flying the jet off-course. He adds that the official investigated concluded differently, that MH370 fell victim to fuel exhaustion while flying unpiloted, but Vance suggests they appear to have been trying to force their conclusion on facts that do not support it.
The book is written very much like an accident investigation report, dry and clinical, primarily a lengthy list of facts and diagrams accompanied by explanation, but Vance does offer some few "opinions," which probably are better characterised as the deductions of an experienced investigator. He thinks the pilot endeavoured to ditch in the ocean with as little damage as possible because doing so would minimize the size of the debris field, which also would lessen the possibility of the crash site ever being discovered. His team collected more than two million pieces of debris from Swiss Air 111, which is one reason he is unequivocal in stating that MH370, with fewer than 30 pieces of debris ever having been found, and with two of those pieces bearing witness to a controlled water landing, had to have performed a reasonably successful ditching in the ocean.
And since no one yet has found the werckage, the rest of the plan also seems to be working.
I think in an earlier post I linked to this video from an Australian 60 Minutes television show first aired in 2016. Mr. Vance is featured several times in it. In this film he covers analysis of the flap and flaperon, and his conclusion was exactly the same then as now. There have been additional pieces of wreckage from other areas of the aircraft recovered as well but the evidence from none of them contradicts Vance's earlier conclusion.
By the time of the 60 Minutes episode Vance already had had subject matter experts examine the flap and flaperon and they determined that both showed damage consistent with being in the extended position during a water landing. The flaps can't be extended unless both of two conditions are met: 1) someone moves the flap selector switch in the cockpit and 2) the flap actuating hydraulic system is pressurized. And there's no hydraulic power available unless at least one engine is operating. So there definitely was a functioning hand in the cockpit, probably with a similarly functioning pilot attached to it, and there still was fuel in the tanks.
So it didn't run out of fuel and crash, a pilot landed it (at least somewhat) softly on the water.
Before you go there, no, the loss of one engine will not force a commercial aircraft to land. All multiengine commercial aircraft must be able to continue to climb even if one engine fails at the instant it leaves the runway on takeoff, the point of flight at which the a/c is at its heaviest. Climbing requires thrust in excess of what is required to maintain level flight, so the loss of the thrust from one engine will not force a commercial a/c to land.
Vance also makes a big to-do of what he calls "the first anomaly," referring to the loss of response from MH370's transponder. Because a functioning transponder, which essentially is a wireless transmitter that broadcasts with an self-identifying code whenever swept by radar, makes an aircraft "visible" at distances far beyond those at which it could be seen entirely by radar signal bouncing off it and returning to the transmitter (known as the "primary return").
So switching a transponder off is just the sort of thing you'd do if you were preparing to disappear an airplane. Even if it malfunctions or catches fire, there's a spare transponder powered from a separate electrical circuit, so loss of the primary is no excuse for losing signal.
One minute and six seconds after MH370's final radio transmission, someone turned off the transponder and failed to switch on the back-up. The recording of that transmission still exists. There was no smoke alarm sounding and no indication of stress in the pilot's voice, and it is not possible that a battery fire in the cargo hold -- which has its own independent fire detection and suppression system -- could begun after the transmission, spread to the cockpit and disabled the transponder in so brief a time. Roughly two minutes after the transponder was switched off, MH370 reversed course and flew back over Malaysia.
Fifty-odd minutes later, military radar spotted MH370 well off-course, heading roughly WNW off the north end of Indonesia. That was the last time it was known to have been in radar contact.
Not quite seven hours after take-off, computers in MH370's Rolls Royce jet engines communicated with a maintenance company's satellite over the Indian ocean. Analysis indicated that that response came from somewhere roughly to the west of Australia, more than 2000 nautical miles south of Malaysia. This occurred more than one and one-half hours after the fight's scheduled time of arrival in Beijing, so MH370 would have been running on fumes. The RR engines where scheduled to check in again after another hour later but did not.
The forensic evidence from the flap and flaperon has direct implications to the cause of the "first anomaly." Because if MH370 was deliberately landed in the ocean after more than seven hours of controlled flight but before fuel exhaustion, there can be little doubt but that a pilot both turned off the transponder and flew the plane off-course.
Vance also goes through the alternate theories, at least the credible ones (he didn't waste time discounting CNN's resident idiot Don Lemon's "black hole" theory) and points out where each fails to satisfy some uncontested fact. The rogue pilot theory -- and only the rogue pilot theory -- fits with all the uncontested facts without any massaging.
He makes no effort to implicate either pilot but since the captain's home flight simulator bore evidence that he had rehearsed a flight path similar to that which MH370 is known to have flown, he suggests that it also is possible that whoever ditched the plane might also have studied the topography of the ocean floor and selected a landing location that specifically would make discovery of the airplane less likely, some place deep and rugged.
I paraphrase the author's "Summing Up" rather than quote to avoid copyright issues (page 299 in the eBook). The only possible scenario that satisfies all of the accepted 'facts' is that of a pilot deliberately flying the jet off-course. He adds that the official investigated concluded differently, that MH370 fell victim to fuel exhaustion while flying unpiloted, but Vance suggests they appear to have been trying to force their conclusion on facts that do not support it.
The book is written very much like an accident investigation report, dry and clinical, primarily a lengthy list of facts and diagrams accompanied by explanation, but Vance does offer some few "opinions," which probably are better characterised as the deductions of an experienced investigator. He thinks the pilot endeavoured to ditch in the ocean with as little damage as possible because doing so would minimize the size of the debris field, which also would lessen the possibility of the crash site ever being discovered. His team collected more than two million pieces of debris from Swiss Air 111, which is one reason he is unequivocal in stating that MH370, with fewer than 30 pieces of debris ever having been found, and with two of those pieces bearing witness to a controlled water landing, had to have performed a reasonably successful ditching in the ocean.
And since no one yet has found the werckage, the rest of the plan also seems to be working.
- Jul 27, 2010
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SS, thanks for this summary. But if the pilot wanted to crash the plane intentionally, why would he care if the crash site was discovered? There was that flight out of Spain a few years ago where the crash was concluded to be a suicide, and in that case there wasn't any effort AFAIK to hide what happened. If someone is at the point where he not only wants to commit suicide, but doesn't care that he kills many other people along with himself, why would he care if this is concluded by investigators later?
A psychopath, such as a mass shooter, might want to kill a large number of people at one time, but he wants other people to know that he committed the crime, and generally tries to avoid being killed himself. On the other hand, someone who doesn't distinguish between his own death and that of others is not someone who would care one way or another if his act were discovered.
There seem to be other problems with this explanation, if I understand it correctly. There were two pilots flying the plane. If one of them turned off the transponder, then took the plane off course, why wouldn't the other be aware of this and try to stop him?
A psychopath, such as a mass shooter, might want to kill a large number of people at one time, but he wants other people to know that he committed the crime, and generally tries to avoid being killed himself. On the other hand, someone who doesn't distinguish between his own death and that of others is not someone who would care one way or another if his act were discovered.
There seem to be other problems with this explanation, if I understand it correctly. There were two pilots flying the plane. If one of them turned off the transponder, then took the plane off course, why wouldn't the other be aware of this and try to stop him?
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Re:
The only explanation could be that the pilot locked the other pilot out of the cockpit on his break but usually there is a flight engineer as well so who knows ? The German pilot with mental health issues that flew his plane into the mountain a few years ago did exactly that. He put the plane into a dive while the other pilot was on his break. That was a smaller plane with only two cockpit crew I think. I think since the German disaster the protocol with cockpits has changed. I don't think a pilot can lock out another pilot now or that was what was being proposed with the modern planes. A door operated by a key code only known to the cabin crew.
Merckx index said:
The only explanation could be that the pilot locked the other pilot out of the cockpit on his break but usually there is a flight engineer as well so who knows ? The German pilot with mental health issues that flew his plane into the mountain a few years ago did exactly that. He put the plane into a dive while the other pilot was on his break. That was a smaller plane with only two cockpit crew I think. I think since the German disaster the protocol with cockpits has changed. I don't think a pilot can lock out another pilot now or that was what was being proposed with the modern planes. A door operated by a key code only known to the cabin crew.
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The 767 was the last Boeing with a station for a flight engineer. Computerization largely made the human FE redundant. Human crewmembers are a fixed cost and the airlines are eager to eliminate every one they can. The "glass cockpit" allows a concentration of all the dials, indicators and warning lights into a space small enough that a single individual can monitor them all. MH370 only had two crewmember stations in the cockpit.
The authority of the captain of an aircraft is not so far removed from that of a ship's captain. He might not be God, but he'll do until God arrives. This is not mere airline tradition, it is codified by aviation law. In the interest of flight safety, the captain has the authority to exclude anyone he chooses from the flight deck, with the exception in some countries of security personnel for certain high-ranking government officials, but including the FO. He could simply have ordered the FO out and it would have been his duty (and legal obligation) to comply.
If he wanted to be more diplomatic about it, a captain can easily manufacture any number of reasons to get the FO out of the cockpit and the FO would comply, if he knows what's good for him. A request from the captain is an order delivered with a smile. It could be as easy as waiting until he knows food service is underway, then telling the FO to go get him a cup of coffee because the knows the flight attendants all are busy tending to the pax. Or tell the FO that he lent his favourite pen to the head FA and she didn't give it back, and ask him to go get it from her (captains are notoriously "thrifty" like that).
For that matter, by law there is a fire axe in the cockpit. Since he was going to kill the FO anyway but the FO had scuppered his plans by declining to leave the cockpit, why not just split his skull and be done with him? Tell him you're leaving to get it yourself ("You have the airplane"), then tell him to radio ATC and ask if there have been any pilot's reports of turbulence in the next hour of their flight path. While he's distracted scanning instruments and talking to ATC, bury the axe in the top of his head.
We don't know who did it, much less why, and if the plane is never found, it almost certainly will remain that way. I'd say that pretty well explains the motivation for ditching in as remote a location as possible.
The authority of the captain of an aircraft is not so far removed from that of a ship's captain. He might not be God, but he'll do until God arrives. This is not mere airline tradition, it is codified by aviation law. In the interest of flight safety, the captain has the authority to exclude anyone he chooses from the flight deck, with the exception in some countries of security personnel for certain high-ranking government officials, but including the FO. He could simply have ordered the FO out and it would have been his duty (and legal obligation) to comply.
If he wanted to be more diplomatic about it, a captain can easily manufacture any number of reasons to get the FO out of the cockpit and the FO would comply, if he knows what's good for him. A request from the captain is an order delivered with a smile. It could be as easy as waiting until he knows food service is underway, then telling the FO to go get him a cup of coffee because the knows the flight attendants all are busy tending to the pax. Or tell the FO that he lent his favourite pen to the head FA and she didn't give it back, and ask him to go get it from her (captains are notoriously "thrifty" like that).
For that matter, by law there is a fire axe in the cockpit. Since he was going to kill the FO anyway but the FO had scuppered his plans by declining to leave the cockpit, why not just split his skull and be done with him? Tell him you're leaving to get it yourself ("You have the airplane"), then tell him to radio ATC and ask if there have been any pilot's reports of turbulence in the next hour of their flight path. While he's distracted scanning instruments and talking to ATC, bury the axe in the top of his head.
We don't know who did it, much less why, and if the plane is never found, it almost certainly will remain that way. I'd say that pretty well explains the motivation for ditching in as remote a location as possible.
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The Malaysian government have released their final report. They are discounting any possible involvement of the flight crew because they can't find any evidence of it, electing to blame instead "the possibility of unlawful interference by a third party."
So because they (claim to) find no evidence of the involvement of "A," some "B" (whose existence is unproved) must have been responsible.
And William of Ockham spins in his grave.
So because they (claim to) find no evidence of the involvement of "A," some "B" (whose existence is unproved) must have been responsible.
And William of Ockham spins in his grave.
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i think it has to be an open verdict. They don't have enough information or wreckage. Someone turned the plane around but it makes no sense to turn the plane around and fly for so much longer if the idea was suicide or terrorism. It would have been ditched into the sea in SE Asia but it ended up off the Western Australian coast. Whatever record the pilots had it seems one of them has either had a mental episode or they both decided for political reasons. If it was planned by a terrorist group they would have definitely claimed it was their doing after the plane went missing. Publicity is always important for terrorists. Obviously no answers for the relatives just more questions. Why the pilots even needed to turn the plane around is strange. Crash anywhere into the ocean a long way from shore and the plane won't be easy to find. Look how long it took to find the Air France plane in the Atlantic even after finding considerable wreckage and having a good idea of where it crashed.
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In some countries, or some airlines, no one can be in the cockpit alone. If one pilot leaves, a deadheading pilot or flight attendant must come into the cockpit and sit in the jump seat until the pilot returns. This was not a rule with Malaysian airlines during the time of this crash. Cockpit Resource Management training indicates that a FO can override a captain, but only if the captain is doing something in error. As Strybjorn noted, there are many ways a captain could get rid of a FO, as even with CRM rules, the captain is still the ultimate authority of the aircraft. So having him ask the FO to do something trivial is certainly within his power, and presuming everything appeared normal, and the plane was just flying along, the FO would have no reason to question it.
No, the "official" result doesn't pass a smell test, it's one of political convenience. John Cox was right when he said in the big picture they must find the aircraft, as expensive and time consuming as it may be.
No, the "official" result doesn't pass a smell test, it's one of political convenience. John Cox was right when he said in the big picture they must find the aircraft, as expensive and time consuming as it may be.
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What Really Happened to Malaysia’s Missing Airplane
Five years ago, the flight vanished into the Indian Ocean. Officials on land know more about why than they dare to say.
Long-ish article, which ends:
Five years ago, the flight vanished into the Indian Ocean. Officials on land know more about why than they dare to say.
Long-ish article, which ends:
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How Malaysian Airlines even survived is just as miraculous after two disasters in small amount of time. Even with MH17 it seems to be the Netherlands and Australia pushing for justice not so much Malaysia as the majority of the victims came from those countries. A justice and compensation the families will probably never receive with Russia's policy on deportation and the fact that they refuse to admit playing a part. Knowing how volatile the airline industry is even without disasters many would be surprised that the airline is still operating. Probably propped up by the government. Even Boeing itself has been leaking money lately after the two most recent crashes with the same type of plane.
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MH370 mystery ‘almost certainly’ murder-suicide plot, former PM Tony Abbott says
Former PM Tony Abbott says he was told “early on” by Malaysian officials that the pilot of missing flight MH370 had likely committed mass murder.
Former PM Tony Abbott says he was told “early on” by Malaysian officials that the pilot of missing flight MH370 had likely committed mass murder.
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The Guardian is reporting the Ozzies are mounting another effort to locate the wreckage.
Coincidentally, just this week the Beeb released a video RE the disappearance, mostly rehashing old information but even they finally have surrendered to the fact that this only could have been a deliberate act.
The one bit of new news in the video is a retired aerospace engineer who used data the amateur radio community keep online (called the Weak Signal Propagation Reporter) to, according to his analysis, track the flight path of MH370, and with some specificity, right up until the moment it crashed. He claims he has narrowed down the possible location of the crash to a 30 km radius in the Indian ocean. Which is a tiny area, compared to what's already been searched.
This chap isn't mentioned by name in the Guardian story but it's possible his data might be the impetus behind the decision to mount one more search effort.
Coincidentally, just this week the Beeb released a video RE the disappearance, mostly rehashing old information but even they finally have surrendered to the fact that this only could have been a deliberate act.
The one bit of new news in the video is a retired aerospace engineer who used data the amateur radio community keep online (called the Weak Signal Propagation Reporter) to, according to his analysis, track the flight path of MH370, and with some specificity, right up until the moment it crashed. He claims he has narrowed down the possible location of the crash to a 30 km radius in the Indian ocean. Which is a tiny area, compared to what's already been searched.
This chap isn't mentioned by name in the Guardian story but it's possible his data might be the impetus behind the decision to mount one more search effort.
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I think its more the Malaysian government and the American underwater robotics company working on a deal at the moment. Nothing yet about Australia helping to fund another search but they offered to help coordinate the search if Malaysia needs assistance. Maybe China and an Australia will offer financial assistance to extend the search for longer as China had many passengers on the plane and were one of the countries pushing the previous search attempt.
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Took them forever to locate the Titanic but of course that was without the technology we have now. plus ships are much bigger and don't break up on impact as much as planes unless they are ships sunk in wartime incidents. Took them quite a while to find the Air France plane that crashed in the Atlantic even with a very accurate last radar position. and plenty of wreckage found on the surface. I guess the sea currents have a lot to do with it. Even with the plane that crashed in the Hudson river which actually landed on the surface, it took them a lot longer than expected to locate the second engine due to the river currents.
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The Malaysian government reportedly have struck a deal with Ocean Infinity, a US-based robotics and marine exploration company, to resume searching for MH370.
Ocean Infinity are convinced that with the "amateur" work of retired British aerospace engineer Richard Godfrey using the 'Weak Signal Propagation Reporter' [WSPR], they have narrowed the location of MH370's crash to a 15,000-square km area, only 30 km from where the most recent search left off. And it's “no find, no fee." If they find it they expect to be paid $70 million (AUD?), and if they don't find it they get bupkis.
Based on how positively un-helpful the Malaysians have been to this point, they must be expecting Ocean Infinity to fail. Either that or they believe the wreckage is elsewhere.
Ocean Infinity are convinced that with the "amateur" work of retired British aerospace engineer Richard Godfrey using the 'Weak Signal Propagation Reporter' [WSPR], they have narrowed the location of MH370's crash to a 15,000-square km area, only 30 km from where the most recent search left off. And it's “no find, no fee." If they find it they expect to be paid $70 million (AUD?), and if they don't find it they get bupkis.
Based on how positively un-helpful the Malaysians have been to this point, they must be expecting Ocean Infinity to fail. Either that or they believe the wreckage is elsewhere.
- Jan 22, 2010
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10.5 years later, let's imagine they do locate the wreckage.
Then what?
I don't believe any of the data recorders will have any recoverable information after this long at the bottom of the ocean.
I'm as curious as anyone, but I don't think much, if anything, can be learned.
Maybe if they get DNA from the cockpit it could settle some theories.
Studying the wreckage they could probably confirm if i was a controlled landing or not. But that would be relatively small potatoes.
Then what?
I don't believe any of the data recorders will have any recoverable information after this long at the bottom of the ocean.
I'm as curious as anyone, but I don't think much, if anything, can be learned.
Maybe if they get DNA from the cockpit it could settle some theories.
Studying the wreckage they could probably confirm if i was a controlled landing or not. But that would be relatively small potatoes.
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Malaysia agrees to launch new search for MH370 plane, which vanished a decade ago with 239 people on board
Updated on: December 20, 2024 / 6:54 AM EST / CBS/AFP
Malaysia announced on Friday it has agreed to launch a new search for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, which disappeared 10 years ago in one of aviation's greatest enduring mysteries...
...Transport Minister Anthony Loke said Malaysia had agreed to a new search operation by maritime exploration firm Ocean Infinity, which also carried out an unsuccessful hunt in 2018.
The company's first efforts followed a massive Australia-led search for the aircraft that lasted three years before it was suspended in January 2017.
Loke said a new 5,800 square mile area of the southern Indian Ocean would be scoured by Ocean Infinity, which is based in the United Kingdom and United States.
"The new search area proposed by Ocean Infinity is based on the latest information and data analysis conducted by experts and researchers," Loke said.
"The proposal for a search operation by Ocean Infinity is a solid one and deserves to be considered," he told reporters.
The government said it agreed to Ocean Infinity's proposal "in principle" on December 13, with the transport ministry expected to finalize terms by early 2025.
The new search will resume "as soon as the contract is finalized and signed by both parties," Loke said.
"They have informed us that the ideal time for the search in the designated waters is between January and April. We are working to finalise the agreement as quickly as possible," he added.
"I truly hope there will be an end to the loss of MH370. May all questions be answered," Malaysian Rosila Abu Samah, 60, the stepmother of one of the passengers, told AFP...
...
"No find, no fee"
The new search will be on the same "no find, no fee" principle as Ocean Infinity's previous search, with the government only paying out if they find the aircraft.The contract is for 18 months and Malaysia will pay $70 million to the company if the plane is found, Loke said.
He said the decision to agree to a fresh search "reflects the Malaysian government's commitment to continuing the search operation and providing closure to the families of the MH370 victims...."
Malaysia agrees to launch new search for MH370 plane, which vanished a decade ago with 239 people on board
The Boeing 777 carrying 239 people disappeared from radar screens on March 8, 2014 while en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.
www.cbsnews.com
- Jul 18, 2010
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Meanwhile, there's this:
WSPR Cant Find MH370
Despite many stories in the media repeating claims that historical WSPR data can be used to track MH370, there are many reasons why these claims are patently false. There is broad agreement among acknowledgeable researchers that have investigated these claims, and a handful of these researchers have documented their concerns. For instance, amateur radio enthusiast Hayden Haywood (VK7HH) has created a video explaining why, in simple terms, WSPR cant track airplanes. MH370 investigator Steve Kent published a paper that formally treats skywave propagation and scatter off airplanes, and concludes there is insufficient signal strength (by many orders of magnitude) for WSPR to detect aircraft over long distances. In fact, even WSPR creator Joe Taylor (K1JT), who won a Nobel prize in physics for his research on pulsars and gravity, told fellow MH370 Independent Group (IG) member Mike Exner, I do not believe that historical data from the WSPR network can provide any information useful for aircraft tracking....
My money's on the Nobel Laureate who invented WSPR.
WSPR Cant Find MH370
Despite many stories in the media repeating claims that historical WSPR data can be used to track MH370, there are many reasons why these claims are patently false. There is broad agreement among acknowledgeable researchers that have investigated these claims, and a handful of these researchers have documented their concerns. For instance, amateur radio enthusiast Hayden Haywood (VK7HH) has created a video explaining why, in simple terms, WSPR cant track airplanes. MH370 investigator Steve Kent published a paper that formally treats skywave propagation and scatter off airplanes, and concludes there is insufficient signal strength (by many orders of magnitude) for WSPR to detect aircraft over long distances. In fact, even WSPR creator Joe Taylor (K1JT), who won a Nobel prize in physics for his research on pulsars and gravity, told fellow MH370 Independent Group (IG) member Mike Exner, I do not believe that historical data from the WSPR network can provide any information useful for aircraft tracking....
My money's on the Nobel Laureate who invented WSPR.
- Jul 18, 2010
- 1,276
- 23
- 10,530
Apparently Malaysia and Ocean Infinity reached an agreement just yesterday authorizing OI to undertake another search for MH370.
My hunch is that the agreement had been made weeks ago and the announcement delayed because about a month ago one of Ocean Infinity's research vessels arrived offshore from Perth. At about that same time the Malaysian Transport Minister stated "the search has resumed" but there was no official statement from Ocean Infinity. Shortly after, Netizens with access to maritime traffic position reporting claimed OI's ship, the Armada 78 06, appeared to be sailing in a search pattern (of sorts).
EDIT: image not working? https://www.hostpic.org/images/2503182239260222.jpg
According to their Wikipedia page, Ocean Infinity have found six shipwrecks, five of those since MH370 vanished, one lying at a depth of 4700 meters and two others that had been lost for more than 75 years. So it would appear that they have technology up to finding it, provided they're looking in the correct location. And that last point would seem to be a matter of whether Richard Godfrey's largely untested theory is correct.
Ocean Infinity's earlier press releases stated the search will take about six weeks. Unless they're on some zig-zag, drink driving pleasure cruise, I reckon they are a bit more than half done.
My hunch is that the agreement had been made weeks ago and the announcement delayed because about a month ago one of Ocean Infinity's research vessels arrived offshore from Perth. At about that same time the Malaysian Transport Minister stated "the search has resumed" but there was no official statement from Ocean Infinity. Shortly after, Netizens with access to maritime traffic position reporting claimed OI's ship, the Armada 78 06, appeared to be sailing in a search pattern (of sorts).
EDIT: image not working? https://www.hostpic.org/images/2503182239260222.jpg
According to their Wikipedia page, Ocean Infinity have found six shipwrecks, five of those since MH370 vanished, one lying at a depth of 4700 meters and two others that had been lost for more than 75 years. So it would appear that they have technology up to finding it, provided they're looking in the correct location. And that last point would seem to be a matter of whether Richard Godfrey's largely untested theory is correct.
Ocean Infinity's earlier press releases stated the search will take about six weeks. Unless they're on some zig-zag, drink driving pleasure cruise, I reckon they are a bit more than half done.
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