Whoa, I thought I had scoped out all the playoff possibilities, but I missed a huge one. If Houston loses to JAX, they almost certainly lose their division, which I thought they had locked up. Assuming Indy-Tenn doesn’t end in a tie, the winner of that game would win the tie-breaker with a losing Houston, with a better division record. Then Houston would be the second WC.
Then matters get complicated. If Baltimore wins, and NE wins, Baltimore becomes the third seed, while Indy or Tenn is the fourth seed. I think the fifth seed, probably LAC, maybe KC, would much prefer playing one of those two teams, rather than Baltimore (though KC may have bad memories of last year if they wind up playing Tennessee again). If Baltimore loses, Indy or Tenn becomes the third seed, with the fourth seed Pittsburgh, if the Steelers win, or the Ravens, if the Steelers lose. Then Houston would play Indy or Tenn, same as if they had won their last game and the division, except on the road, not at home.
What if NE and Houston both lose? If Baltimore wins, as I mentioned before, they would be the second seed, but what about Indy or Tenn? If Tennessee wins their final game, they would be the third seed, ahead of NE, because they beat NE. If Indy wins that final game, they would be the fourth seed, behind NE, because they lost to the Pats.
What if NE, Houston and Baltimore all lose? Amazingly, if Tennessee wins, they would be the second seed! NE would be the third seed, and Pittsburgh (or Baltimore if Pitt loses) would be the fourth seed. If Indy wins, they would be the third seed, behind NE.
Alpe expressed surprise that the Ravens could finish anywhere from second to out. It turns out the Titans are in the same position. And Houston could finish anywhere from first (I think) to sixth. So the AFC seeds look like this (I've listed them in what I think is order of likelihood):
1 - KC, LAC, NE, or Hou
2 - NE, Hou, KC, Bal, or Tenn
3 - Hou, NE, Bal, Indy or Tenn
4 - Bal, Pit, Hou, NE, Indy or Tenn
5 - LAC or KC
6 - Indy, Tenn, Pit, Bal, or Hou
That is just wild. I remember one year when the top 5 teams in the AFC all had 11-5 records, and seeding was determined entirely by tie-breakers.
movingtarget said:
I think the Ravens and the Bears will win. Gurley out for the Rams but Breida out for the 49ers who also have other injury concerns and the Rams have so much more to play for. Only some hunger from the young 49ers players including Buckner on defense will keep them in the game probably and George Kittle who is having a great season on a beaten up team. I still get the feeling that the Cowboys and Pittsburgh won't be around long in the playoffs. The Patriots are usually made of sterner stuff even though the cracks are showing. Sounds like Brady will be back again next season.
Kittle needs 100 reception yards to break Gronk’s single season NFL record for a TE. When you consider that Gronk had Brady throwing to him, whereas Kittle has had…who?, that’s pretty impressive. KC’s Travis Kelce, trailing Gronk by just 54 yards, may get there first. But that just makes Kittle look even better, as Kelce of course has Mahomes throwing to him.
The 49ers have had three different QBs this season, none of them with much NFL experience. Jimmy Garappolo had started only seven NFL games prior to this season, and was injured in just his third game. C.J. Beathard had started only five NFL games when he took over, and was injured after five games. Nick Mullens had never played a regular season game in the NFL when he replaced Beathard. It’s remarkable that Kittle has done so well under those conditions. You can argue that the Patriots and the Chiefs have multiple offensive weapons, whereas the 49ers rely more on Kittle, but that also means he’s likely to draw more coverage. He has the third longest pass reception in the NFL this year (85 yards), including WR, and the fourth greatest one game reception yards total (210). He hasn’t fumbled even once, and leads all TE with > 40 receptions with 15.5 yards/catch. He needs just four receptions to break Vernon Davis’s team record for a TE in that stat.
Fun fact: Kittle played college ball at Iowa, where he was a teammate of C.J. Beathard. That familiarity probably helped him when Beathard took over. But he has improved steadily throughout the season. In three games with Garappolo, he averaged 4 catches for 60 yards per game. In five games with Beathard, it was 5 catches for 79 yards. In seven games with Mullens, it’s 6 catches for 92 yards.
Brady signed a deal last year which would give him $1 million each for finishing in the top 5 in various passing stats. He finished in the top 5 in all of them last year, but he’s well out of the top 5 in each of them this year, and nothing he or those ahead of him do or don’t do in the final game is likely to change that. For example, one of the stats is total passing yards. Brady is > 300 yards behind the no. 5 position, and that QB is expected to play this week.