Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

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Re:

Libertine Seguros said:
Charvatová is, I'm afraid, Gössner-like in relays. She's almost a guaranteed penalty in standing, no matter how well she does in the individual races, put her in stand in a relay and she melts down. She shot 1 penalty loop in Hochfilzen, 2 in Ruhpolding and Antholz, 1 in Presque Isle and now 3 in Holmenkollen. It's the biggest problem for the Czech relay, because Landová's had a bad season and they don't really have anybody doing well enough to offer an appreciable advantage over Charvatová even despite that. Jislová might become that once Puskarčíková is healthy again, but the season will be over by then and there's no relay in Khanty.
It's a shame really, but I still think that a team consisting of Puskarčíková (1), Soukalová (2), Charvátová (3) and Vítková (4) should be able to finish in the top 3. The problem yesterday was not only Charvátová's shooting but also Jislova's terrible first round, always leaving it up to Soukalová to close down the 1 minute the Czechs are after. With Puskarčíková on the first leg, the Czechs are, as a rule of thumb, at worst "only" 20 seconds back at the first exchange.
 
Sep 25, 2009
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it was indeed a very interesting time trial at the tour !

a have a lot more thoughts that i have time to type... lets start from the beginning...

1st off, about the podiumers yesterday... where the hell was hell-ner all forking season to only podium in the penultimate race of the calendar &#63 ? i am happy for him but feel lost for answers. also, a slight surprise at the manificat's relatively poor placing and a superb performance by belov. belov surprised b/c he had not shown any form in the tour and b/c he's known as a better classic man. but i must say, his skate-2 when on the screen, looks almost as aesthetic as sundby's. the heikkinen triumph in the mountains may have surprise some, but not this python. needles to remind, that his light frame and good engine had produced some superior performances where climbing was the mode, like on the lysebotn op last summer (won over legkov) and alp cermis 2016 (3d fastest).


now to the leaders...during my competitive years, in any interval race, i would make a habit to first break the course down into segments on the map and then actually cover them with my heart monitor and a tiny voice recorder. the purpose was always to target an optimum race pace for a given hill, turn, a flat run, make notes about the snow, weather etc. i dont know if sundby, northug and ustiugov trained on the very course at a race pace, but i doubt little that they reconned the course thoroughly. and it was shown by their splits, both relative to each other and a given check point absolute leaders.

generally, if there is a way to objectively analyze the contenders, there is no a better way than looking at the post race splits. luckily we had 3 timing stations. sure, some other clues can be obtained from a screen. things like face agony, style deterioration, usage of skate 1 vs skate 2, energy of a push-off before a downhill glide etc etc. but these things are only secondary to the actual split times.

so what did the splits tell me ? that all three were dead tired consistently increasing gaps to race leaders at each check. that they were leaking seconds to the leaders at about the same rate with sundby looking very slightly better and ustiugov slightly worse of the trio. of course, northug was slightly better of the 3 in the last 2.3 km. the difference were very small.we are talking of delta's in the range of no more than few seconds.

what conclusion do i draw for a final pursuit ?

given the trio bodies recovery stays were it was in the previous races here in canmore and given about equal skis, ustiogv WONT be caught. perhaps to within 5-10 seconds. but of course, as reasonable as i think my theory is, i could be proven wrong by the actual events. we'll see in about 10-11 hours
 
Apr 22, 2012
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Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
Libertine Seguros said:
She's almost a guaranteed penalty in standing, no matter how well she does in the individual races, put her in stand in a relay and she melts down.
She s, but she is very young and she's doing biathlon only since 2013!!! Given that, she's very good at it. Give her some time.
 
Jan 3, 2016
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BullsFan22 said:
He's still the favorite, I think, but it's not going to be easy.
It will be extremely hard for him. The weather is even warmer than yesterday, 4 laps instead of 3 (worse track conditions) and nobody ahead of him to hang on.
 
Jan 3, 2016
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Meanwhile, in Canmore it looks like Johaug has great glide whilst Weng is suffering with dreadful waxing. Awful way to conclude the tour.
 
Re:

frenchfry said:
OK, the French were terrible (except Martin, but it was FAR too late by then).

But those Canadians, wow!
Yeah, did not see that coming. Just so consistent across the whole team :)
Must be quite a blow to the Russians, though, with absolutely nothing working out for them this WC.

I genuinely hope for Shipulin to win tomorrow. He was great today.
 
Sep 25, 2009
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at 9.7 km northug was left for dead...sundby leads ustiugov by about 20 sec...up from 6.7 sec at the previous check.

same gap i just registered at 11.25 k. means sundby will likely win b/c it's mostly downhill from there
 
Re:

python said:
at 9.7 km northug was left for dead...sundby leads ustiugov by about 20 sec...up from 6.7 sec at the previous check.

same gap i just registered at 11.25 k. means sundby will likely win b/c it's mostly downhill from there

Strange race. Ustiugov was caught, slightly surprising, because I thought his shape and his confidence were going to help him out. Perhaps he still had those two things going and his skis didn't look that bad, but Sundby just had other ideas today. It was strange how neither guy could respond to Sundby when he went, though the hill that Sundby went away from them on is one of THE toughest hills on the entire world cup circuit, and in those warm, slushy, slow conditions at the end of a brutal tour, brutal season, it may have been a good decisions not to go with him, at least not initially. Then more strange things happened. Ustiugov actually was gaining on Sundby and brought to 6 seconds halfway and then lost time again, but it hovered around 20 seconds for a few km's before he lost another 30 to the finish. Northug just kept losing time and died a thousand deaths. He looked like a drunken' sailor that was beaten up with a stick and put in a sauna afterwards. Another strange thing, Ustiugov didn't look that tired to me at the finish. In fact, the only race in Canmore he looked tired in was surprisingly the sprint. I don't know if he was afraid of blowing up and didn't push as hard as he was capable of, or if that's just how it was. Sundby, as usual, had saliva on his beard, but looked like he could have gone another 15km. Manificat setting the fastest time is strange for me as well. Sure, he had nothing to lose, but to catch Harvey, and then beat the top three, by big chunks, is amazing. In a classic race, what's more! Yes, he's improved his classic and has podiumed as recently as Falun last month, but he destroyed everyone.....except....Matti Heikkinen!! Three great races from him??? When was the last time this happened?!? I know he had an injury and had to miss training in late summer/fall, and he had to ski into the season, which i suppose gave him fresh legs with fewer races under his belt and less pressure. Still impressive. No Dyrhaug, Toenseth for the Norwegians. These guys I thought would play a role in the final overall, but Dyrhaug abandoned a couple days ago and Toenseth didn't start today.
 
Apr 22, 2012
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Re: Re:

BullsFan22 said:
It was strange how neither guy could respond to Sundby when he went, though the hill that Sundby went away from them on is one of THE toughest hills on the entire world cup circuit, and in those warm, slushy, slow conditions at the end of a brutal tour, brutal season, it may have been a good decisions not to go with him, at least not initially. Then more strange things happened. Ustiugov actually was gaining on Sundby and brought to 6 seconds halfway and then lost time again, but it hovered around 20 seconds for a few km's before he lost another 30 to the finish. Northug just kept losing time and died a thousand deaths. He looked like a drunken' sailor that was beaten up with a stick and put in a sauna afterwards. Another strange thing, Ustiugov didn't look that tired to me at the finish. In fact, the only race in Canmore he looked tired in was surprisingly the sprint. I don't know if he was afraid of blowing up and didn't push as hard as he was capable of, or if that's just how it was. Sundby, as usual, had saliva on his beard, but looked like he could have gone another 15km. Manificat setting the fastest time is strange for me as well. Sure, he had nothing to lose, but to catch Harvey, and then beat the top three, by big chunks, is amazing. In a classic race, what's more! Yes, he's improved his classic and has podiumed as recently as Falun last month, but he destroyed everyone.....except....Matti Heikkinen!! Three great races from him??? When was the last time this happened?!? I know he had an injury and had to miss training in late summer/fall, and he had to ski into the season, which i suppose gave him fresh legs with fewer races under his belt and less pressure. Still impressive. No Dyrhaug, Toenseth for the Norwegians. These guys I thought would play a role in the final overall, but Dyrhaug abandoned a couple days ago and Toenseth didn't start today.
Don't see what's so strange about Usťugov not able to follow Sundby on very tough hill in these conditions (warm, soft snow). Ustiugov managed to pull down Sundby to 6 seconds mostly on flattish part and mostly downhill. What you didn't notice was that after thaht Ustiugov caught Sundby completely and Northug too! Then it was that hard uphill and they lost again, Ustiugov managing to maintain stable gap od 20 seconds probably on his limit, which he couldn't for long time thus he lost more later.
Ideal conditions for Manificat or Heikinnen yesterday. And Manificat didn't exactly destroy everybody, Heikinnen was near.
 
Sep 25, 2009
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...yesterday, given the soft slush they had to swim in (no quotations needed), it was a race btwn the 70 +/- kg skiers and the 80+/- kg rowers with their ankles deep in water ..

the final absolute times
http://data.fis-ski.com/dynamic/results.html?sector=CC&raceid=25845
unequivocally show that rowers lost with a couple of exceptions. the exceptions among the top 10 being the exceptional classic specialists belov and bessmerthych. both approach 80kg.

on the screen it looked like ustiougov was eons ahead of northug but in reality it was only 20 seconds for both heavy weights

the only athlete who looked semi-plausible to me (in more than 1 aspect) was sundby. but that's a different thread.

the overall results of the tour of canada are yet to be analyzed. several things however became rather obvious - a new phenom ustiugov had outperformed or equaled the old king northug in all aspects of skiing that made petter a decade-long superstar - their finishing ability, proficiency in skating and skiing, stamina and recovery. ustiougov is almost 7 younger. his tactical acumen in the sprints was on par with with the best and quite sound in all distance races. he still needs to polish his striding, skate 2 and perhaps to lose a kilo or 2 of some extra muscles.

if i am not mistaken, only sundby won more world cup podiums this year. don't be surprised if he wins the next tour de ski.
 
Apr 22, 2012
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Laura yesterday run very badly, today miraculous ressurection...and her puny fist punching air. Definitely I can't like this girl, she's just so swollen headed.
 
Re:

Kokoso said:
Laura yesterday run very badly, today miraculous ressurection...and her puny fist punching air. Definitely I can't like this girl, she's just so swollen headed.
Although you are exaggerating quite a big deal, I must say that of the three that was fighting for silver, her winning that duel was the worst case scenario. Only good thing about today's race was Kaisa taking a very deserved medal. And in a way it was hillarious to see MDH with aim-bot too.
 
Re:

meat puppet said:
Quite the opposite. Seeing Dahlmeier beat both Mäkäräinen and Soukalova was excellent. Good skis surely helped there and it was a done deal after Dahlmeier wasnt dropped on the grattishaugen.
I agree Dahlmeiers skis were gliding much better than Kaisa's skis. On the finishing straight it may have been the decisive factor, but then again Kaisa couldn't drop her on the slopes, where glide matters less. I just don't think Kaisa has the skiing speed of previous years anymore.
 
Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
meat puppet said:
Quite the opposite. Seeing Dahlmeier beat both Mäkäräinen and Soukalova was excellent. Good skis surely helped there and it was a done deal after Dahlmeier wasnt dropped on the grattishaugen.
I agree Dahlmeiers skis were gliding much better than Kaisa's skis. On the finishing straight it may have been the decisive factor, but then again Kaisa couldn't drop her on the slopes, where glide matters less. I just don't think Kaisa has the skiing speed of previous years anymore.
You mean top end and/or sprinting speed? That might be the case, yes. Other than that I think real biathlon stats would on balance confirm (havent checked :) ) that mäkäräinen has been the quickest skier this season too. Dahlmeier clearly had excellent skis and is quite skillful and bold going downhill. Today she seemed to gain on the descents consistently, positions and seconds alike.
 

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