OK, where are we after the first 4 days?

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Well this was more or less the expected outcome, so I don't really think this is deceiving at all. I see no one from the group with a change of anything than a fringe top-5 at best.
He didn’t say it was deceiving, he said they “can be deceiving.” Which I think is historically pretty accurate in the pre-Pogacar/Vingegaard era. We’ll have to wait to see if that is the case this year.
 
Vingegaard is unstoppable. I’m not shocked by Vingegaard but you have to question his injuries. Maybe they were exaggerated? I know Contador beat Froome in the 2014 Vuelta, with both putting up big numbers after dropping out of the Tour with injuries, but neither injury was comparable to this. Nor was Pogacar’s injury last year, or Roglic’s in 2022. Pretty wild. Tim Broe on Lantern Rouge said he thinks Vingegaard will “clean” Pogacar. We’ll see!
They have said very little, so I'm unsure what it is you suspect might have been exaggerated? That he didn't really break several ribs? That he had no punctured lung that was drained for 8 days?

What I think has been exaggerated is the doubts as to whether he would ride the Tour and what form he would have to begin with. But that is separate from the nature of his crash and which injuries that caused.
 
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They have said very little, so I'm unsure what it is you suspect might have been exaggerated? That he didn't really break several ribs? That he had no punctured lung that was drained for 8 days?

What I think has been exaggerated is the doubts as to whether he would ride the Tour and what form he would have to begin with. But that is separate from the nature of his crash and which injuries that caused.
How likely do you think it is that Vingo will be better than Pog in week 3?
I find Vingo improving as plausible as Pog holding his form.
 
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I am in the same place. Everything as expected, except for Vingegaard's performance. However I have always been a believer that he will falter more and more as time goes on and stages get harder.

Honorable mention, the soap opera with UAE. But tell me who didn't predict that? LOL
 
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Pogacar will be hoping Vingegaard doesn’t ride himself into form, because the level Vingegaard is at now, given everything that he’s been through, is frightening. Vingegaard will be hoping to get miles in the legs and hit peak form just as he enters his natural hunting ground of the big mountains. He’ll also be hoping that Pogacar’ Giro starts to really bite in that last week. Remco will be very happy indeed with his form. He could well have a big say in this race yet because he’s looking better than ever. Roglic is hanging on in there, but he’s not at his best yet.
 
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Wouldn’t it be very interesting if Ayuso puts a minute into everyone else (or at least the Pog) in the ITT. Hasn’t he done good ITTs last year and it seems like he is the best in sandbagging. Ayuso is the big surprise so far.