Paris-Nice 2025, March 9-16

[Peyroteo94]

Thunderstorms in Nevers this afternoon ...

What is more awful than a TTT? A wet TTT!

 

[search]

There's an official weather warning for lightnings, but actually not much rain on the forecast. The wind could get more gusty later on, though.

 

[Netserk]

From Meteo France:

Moderate thunderstorm warning

Soyez attentif si vous pratiquez des activités sensibles aux risques météorologiques ou à proximité d'un rivage ou d'un cours d'eau. Des phénomènes habituels dans la région mais occasionnellement et localement dangereux (exemple : mistral, orage d'été, montée des eaux, fortes vagues submergeant le littoral) sont en effet prévus. Tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution de la situation.

Be cautious if you engage in activities sensitive to weather risks or near a shoreline or watercourse. Phenomena common in the region but occasionally and locally hazardous (e.g., mistral winds, summer storms, rising waters, strong waves submerging the coast) are expected. Stay informed about the situation's developments.

It seems to be a general warning for most of the country though, and the local weather forecast looks normal.

But with the change of wind direction, it's probably better to start early, like Ineos.

MultiModel for Nevers - meteoblue

Which forecast is correct? Compare forecasts of all weather models for Nevers. See the uncertainties for temperature, sunshine, rain, and wind.

www.meteoblue.com

 

[Cookster15]

Seems like a mild parcours. Where is Vingegaard going to dominate? He usually likes higher, longer, steeper mountains? And a TTT replacing a TT?

For GC:

1. Jorgenson.
2. Vingegaard
3. O'Connor

 

[Peyroteo94]

Seems like a mild parcours. Where is Vingegaard going to dominate? He usually likes higher, longer, steeper mountains? And a TTT replacing a TT?

For GC:

1. Jorgenson.
2. Vingegaard
3. O'Connor

No love for Almeida?

 

[Cookster15]

No love for Almeida?

My bad.

1. Almeida
2. Jorgenson
3. Vingegaard

(Sorry BoC).

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Is it a "proper" TTT, with time on 4th man, or early assistance and then "do what you can do for yourself"?

 

[Netserk]

Is it a "proper" TTT, with time on 4th man, or aearly assistance and then "do what you can do for yourself"?

It's a proper TTT for a stage race, so just like the previous two years the time of the first rider doesn't depend on the time of any subsequent riders on his team.

 

[Netserk]

Seems like a mild parcours. Where is Vingegaard going to dominate? He usually likes higher, longer, steeper mountains? And a TTT replacing a TT?

For GC:

1. Jorgenson.
2. Vingegaard
3. O'Connor

Stage 4 finish:

Stage 7 finish (near 2.5 km to go):

For comparison, this is the climb where Vingegaard was 1'00" faster than Hindley, O'Connor, Ayuso et al. last year:

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Vingegaard had likely won at La Loge des Gardes two years ago if Pogačar hadn't been in the race. He would win this race easily if he was in the same sort of shape as during TA last year, but that doesn't appear to be the case based on Algarve, although I do still expect him to be stronger this week.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Vingegaard had likely won at La Loge des Gardes two years ago if Pogačar hadn't been in the race. He would win this race easily if he was in the same sort of shape as during TA last year, but that doesn't appear to be the case based on Algarve, although I do still expect him to be stronger this week.

Vingegaard was far from his best shape. He is ceilling is so superior (in stage racing) to everyone bar Pogacar that he will be a lot stronger after 2 weeks of training. I will be very surprised if he doesn't win this race.

 

[wirral]

Is the time to determine the team with the stage victory taken on the 4th rider?

 

[tobydawq]

Is the time to determine the team with the stage victory taken on the 4th rider?

No, the first rider.

 

[Netserk]

We're live, UAE are off and Ineos near the first time check.

 

[search]

let's see what Ineos will do. It feels like they tend to underperform a bit in TTTs

 

[Netserk]

Ben Swift is dropped on the first harder part. I guess they'll be down to 3 or 4 riders for the last 4 km.

Not a great time by Ineos, or very good by Jayco.

 

[Netserk]

Bling gaps O'Connor? Was close.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Matthews a bit too fast for O'Connor but it's a good time with 1 down

 

[YavorD]

Now I won't be surprised if Jayco wins this. Their time looks strong.

 

[Netserk]

Matthews a bit too fast for O'Connor but it's a good time with 1 down

Very good. Seems like they paced themselves excellently.

 

[search]

Jayco didn't gain as much time on Tudor in the 2nd half though, so there may be room for improvement

 

[Netserk]

Tarling killed it on the flat, Jungels dropped on the climb without even taking a turn.

 

[Netserk]

Bissegger and APP with a gap down to Gall.

 

[search]

Ineos now 12s behind Jayco near the top of the climb (hand stopped)

 

[pastronef]

FDJ with unbranded Met helmets, sauf 1 rider with a Rudy Project
Decathlon with 1 Lazer 1 Kask 1 Rudy among their Van Rysel helmets