Teams & Riders Pog & Rog: GT domination

Who and when will snap Pog & Rog streak of GT wins?

  • Bernal

    Votes: 9 19.1%
  • Carapaz

    Votes: 1 2.1%
  • Vingegaard

    Votes: 12 25.5%
  • Evenepoel

    Votes: 10 21.3%
  • Almeida

    Votes: 3 6.4%
  • Other rider (specify)

    Votes: 6 12.8%
  • 2022

    Votes: 11 23.4%
  • 2023

    Votes: 15 31.9%
  • 2024

    Votes: 7 14.9%
  • 2025 or later

    Votes: 3 6.4%

  • Total voters
Pog & Rog have won 5 consecutive GTs they took part in (at least one of them):

Vuelta'19 (gap over the best non-Slovenian: 2'33'')
Tour'20 (gap: 3'30'')
Vuelta'20 (gap: 0'24'')
Tour'21 (gap: 5'20'')
Vuelta'21 (gap: 4'42'')

They were already considered the best one year ago but this year they reinforced their positions even more as absolutely dominant GT riders. They monopolized Tour and Vuelta but it's only a question of time before one of them wins the Giro.
Pogacar is barely 23 yo (almost) and potentially has years of domination ahead. Roglic is almost 32 yo: he's much older but he's still young in cycling age. Looking at him, I think 2-3 more years of absolute prime are likely.
It doesn't look like anyone can beat them in the near future. Here are potential candidates:

Bernal: very strong climber and attacking rider but much weaker in TT department. Despite young age he has chronical problems with his back. He can compete with the Slovenians on extremely mountain dominated courses (a fraction of GTs) but even then won't be favoured against them.
Carapaz: strong climber and fearless attacker. He was close to beating Roglic at last Vuelta but Primoz was pretty tired at the end. Much weaker TT-er than the Slovenians and not quite as strong climber as them (was crushed by Pog in the Alps).
Vingegaard: very interesting prospect. Contrary to the above riders he's really strong in both disciplines: mountains and TTs. Complete package. GT victories seem a matter of time.
Evenepoel: Very strong TT-ist, superb solo attacker, strong climbing (potentially very strong). However, unproven on GT level, poor descending and handling skills. I still see him as a great GT rider but it may take a while, he's still very young.
Almeida: progressing rider, strong in both TT and mountains. Obviously he's not on Slovenians level and from next year he will help Pog in some GTs. Still, I believe he can progress more in next 2-3 years.

So what's your opinion. Who will break their duopoly? And when will it happen? I added a poll (you can choose a rider and a year)
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Well, I do think that if Roglic comes to the Vuelta after riding an entire Tour things get a lot more difficult for him. Let's not forget he almost lost last year's Vuelta on the final mountain stage. But yeah, if they are in top shape they look absolutely unstoppable. The only way I see any of the guys in the poll beat one of them is if one of them becomes significantly better (still hoping for that in Remco's case) or if they start to decline, which I don't expect any time soon.

But really, in cycling you never know. Try explaining to a cycling fan in 2010 how neither Contador nor Schleck will ever win the Tour again. That would have sounded completely crazy too.
Barring crashes, I don't think it's that likely the streak gets broken next year, especially if Pogacar does the Tour-Vuelta double for the first time. Maybe if a big stage in Slovenia lures either or both into Giro-Tour doubling? In 2023, however, Roglic will be 33, and younger riders - Evenepoel, Vingegaard, maybe even Johannessen, Ayuso or the like - will have had another two years to grow. If Roglic doesn't do the same GT schedule as Pogacar that year, it's much more possible. I'll go out on a limb and say that Evenepoel misses the 2023 Tour or abandons early due to a crash, appears at the Vuelta in monster shape and beats Roglic, or maybe even Pogacar, who's done the Tour. Now to find out how bad this prediction turns out to be...
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I am not sure cycling is like the Armstrong years. It is very hard to predict now. There are so many variables, outside and inside the race, that I wouldn't be able to predict who can out win them.

So right now nobody. In the future anybody like Remco, Bernal or even a transformed Wout, or a new youngster like Ayuso. Froome came out of nowhere to destroy Contador's reign. And you can argue that Contador was never quite the same after his ban. Now Froome looks like a amateur. I will be fun to see what happens. For the time being let's enjoy the battle between Rog and Pog.
Since kids are signed so fast it'll be a kid we aren't yet aware of.

Also since kids are signed so fast they will fade earlier.

Also these pandemic years being over there's a huge cleanup coming... (or not, because... stuff)

Also controlled cycling to be dead since kids more individualistic and no one wants to work for no one.

And Pog moving to Tibet wearing orange after having switched to the alt tour.

So in the chaos Valverde gets his least expected day.
In my prediction I assume that Pog&Rog won't be beaten in the next couple of years. Thus my choice is 2024 (though 2023 is realistic as well). A lot depends on their schedule: if they choose the same GTs then beating them will be extremely difficult. If one of them rides a GT being tired after the Tour/Giro the chances for the field are best. I had difficult time picking a rider: Bernal is surely a great rider (and can win if one of the Slovenians is a bit subpar/tired) but I tend to think that very strong TT-ing and very strong climbing is absoutely needed to beat these guys. I chose Vingegaard (I rate him very highly following the Tour) but it could be Evenepoel as well (he may turn into a GT monster in the coming years).
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Good poll. I think it's unlikely that they will be beaten in their first GT of the year for the next two years, unless they crash out. Maybe if one of them goes Giro-Tour with a priority on the Tour. I think it's quite likely that at least one of them will do the Vuelta in both 2022 and 2023, and if it's after a completed Tour, they should be vulnerable there.

So who is most likely to peak for the Vuelta the next two years and win it? My guess is that Almeida won't do the Tour next year, but Giro-Vuelta. And he'll win the Vuelta.

The Ineos duo could win the Vuelta as well, likewise Mas and López. I don't think Simon Yates will do the Vuelta for some time, but he is another candidate. I think it'd do him good to skip the Giro, stage hunt and go for KOM in the Tour, and target the Vuelta for the win, but that is unlikely.
Obviously with the way things are going it will be Cian who beats Pogacar in 2023 in the Tour the France after podiuming the Vuelta in 2022.

then in 2024 Herzog will win both the Giro and the Vuelta. ;)

If this is not happening then i back up Chris Froome to break the Slovenian spell in the Tour of 2025. The whole of England will finally be able to sing a justified: "It's coming home".
Pog and Rog show to continue for a while yet. The Giro is the race that will have new winners as Pog and Rog will probably continue to do the Tour/Vuelta not the Giro/Tour although the Giro/Vuelta is the most rider friendly re recuperation wise and holding form for the season. The Giro looks to be the race to suit second tier grand tour riders especially if Bernal sticks to the Tour from now on. At the moment it seems that if your TT is average or worse you have little hope against the Slovenians. Matching their climbing isn't enough. You have to regularly put time into them in the mountains to have a shot and no one can seem to do that at the moment.
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I can see both skipping the Vuelta if they both ride and finish the Tour next year tbh. Especially if Pogacar wins.

Mainly I don't think cycling really has such certainties. They can just both crash and lose.
I think Roglic will target the Vuelta next year for certain (based on his comments during the recent Vuelta which strongly hinted he'll return). But I also think he'll do the Tour as well because A/Jumbo-Visma as a team want to take their top names to the Tour & B/He'll give it another shot because why not.

But win or lose the Tour we should see Roglic on the roads of Spain going for number 4.
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I think Roglic will target the Vuelta next year for certain (based on his comments during the recent Vuelta which strongly hinted he'll return). But I also think he'll do the Tour as well because A/Jumbo-Visma as a team want to take their top names to the Tour & B/He'll give it another shot because why not.

But win or lose the Tour we should see Roglic on the roads of Spain going for number 4.
Imagining Roglic filling out his calendar and just writing down 3 weeks of "vamos a la playa" in September.
It really takes a lot more than not winning the Vuelta to get Movistar unhappy
Yeah, probably. I mean I still remember the Netflix season 2 Movistar documentary last year where the Movistar sporting director told his team in the morning meeting in the bus "Roglic is not up to the Vuelta"... just before the Moncalvillo stage which Roglic won (mano a mano versus Carapaz on the final climb).

Classic Movistar fail.

Imagine if Roglic thinks, "Nobody has officially won 6 GT's in a row: why not eh?"

And he refuses to ride the Tour again, and surrounds his 2022, 2023 and 2024 Vuelta's with P-N, B-C, LBL, D-L, and the 5th monument.
I like this scenario.

As someone who watches way too much cycling, I never got the whole "all for the Tour" compared to the other GT's (versus people who for example only ever watch the Tour de France & think cycling doesn't exist outside of July). Winning a 3 week race with multiple special category cols, hard as nails mountain stages, punch stages, TT's & hard unpredictable transition stages always looks good on a CV.

Winning multiple in a row versus strong competition also looks very good.
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