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His reaction after winning 2019 Amstel was priceless.
I'm pretty surprised you have such a high cutoff point for an Evenepoel attack.As I said several weeks ago, either Evenepoel wins with a move with >50k to go or Van der Poel wins with a move with <50k to go. Everything else would be a surprise on this route, IMO. So the name of the game for the Dutch team is to a) not let Evenepoel break away in a big group like last year (and you'd think everyone else has learned not to let him go unless you have your leaders in that move after last year), and b) to prevent Van der Poel from being isolated in a group where Belgium has the numbers, because that's the scenario where Evenepoel has the perfect situation to break away. If they can pull that off, a good Van der Poel really should finish this one off in the final laps.
IMO, being the defending champion is going to count against Evenepoel here because every single team will want to avoid a repeat of last year and adjust their tactics accordingly. That makes it harder for him to make the move he needs to make, and thereby increases the odds of the race unfolding the way Van der Poel wants it to. So my vote goes to him completing what would be the greatest season of one-day racing since at least Boonen 2005.
I think we are going to be down to a favourites group of <20 riders, possibly <10 riders, by 50k to go. Of course Evenepoel can still break away in a situation like that, but the smaller the group gets, the less complicated the tactics become and therefore the easier it becomes to focus on an impending Evenepoel move. I'm not saying Evenepoel can't win if he's still with (most of) the other favourites at 50k to go but unless Belgium have greatly superior numbers I definitely wouldn't back him in such a situation.I'm pretty surprised you have such a high cutoff point for an Evenepoel attack.
I do think this route may be easy enough for Kooij to fully cover the Evenepol suckwheeling job if you need it. He held on to MvdP on the hills at the nationals after all
The wins I remember MVDP most for were not due to his acceleration. When on form MVDP has untouchable Anaerobic Lactic power. That can also win uphill finishes. His 2019 Amstel win was scarcely believable. I hope he can be at a similar level for these worlds.I’m going with Van der Poel because of the corners. His acceleration is his best asset and that’s what this parcours will reward the most. The main necessity for him will be having other strong riders in the front group that aren’t Belgian, to help cover attacks. Would love to see a Matteo Trentin dark horse win.
Even better for his chances with the punchy hills here, I think they will cause more separation than many seem to expect.The wins I remember MVDP most for were not due to his acceleration. When on form MVDP has untouchable Anaerobic Lactic power. That can also win uphill finishes. His 2019 Amstel win was scarcely believable. I hope he can be at a similar level for these worlds.
I had a dream last night.
Olav Kooij