Predicting TT and needed Time Gaps for Alps

[Juan Pelota]

Stage 1 TT times (14km)

Froome
Yates + 37
Martin + 49
Bardet +51
Aru + 52
Uran +1:03
Landa + 1:08

The stage 20 TT is 22.5km, or about 1.5x the distance. Using the time differences from stage 1, multiplied by 1.5 + current time differences in GC and we get the following gaps.

Froome
Aru + 1:36
Bardet +1:41
Uran + 2:04
Yates + 2:57
Landa +2:59
Martin + 3:18

Now it could be said that Uran and possibly Landa underperformed in the opening day wet TT. However in TTs this year Uran finished 34th in the Romandie TT, losing 45 seconds to Yates and 47 seconds to an out of shape Froome over 18km. Was there any circumstances as to why Uran sucked so bad then? Similarly in the Vuelta a Pais Vasco, where he finished 10th overall, Uran finished 33rd in the TT in the 27k tt, losing nearly 2 minutes to Valverde.

So Uran has not been TT well recently, although we know he has put in great performances in the past. Landa put in a good performance in the Spanish National TT, but hasn't done any other great TT's this year.

Either way, it seems Froome's rivals will have to put in about two minutes into him through the alps to make this a competitive race.

 

[Durden93]

Stage 1 TT times (14km)

Froome
Yates + 37
Martin + 49
Bardet +51
Aru + 52
Uran +1:03
Landa + 1:08

The stage 20 TT is 22.5km, or about 1.5x the distance. Using the time differences from stage 1, multiplied by 1.5 + current time differences in GC and we get the following gaps.

Froome
Aru + 1:36
Bardet +1:41
Uran + 2:04
Yates + 2:57
Landa +2:59
Martin + 3:18

Now it could be said that Uran and possibly Landa underperformed in the opening day wet TT. However in TTs this year Uran finished 34th in the Romandie TT, losing 45 seconds to Yates and 47 seconds to an out of shape Froome over 18km. Was there any circumstances as to why Uran sucked so bad then? Similarly in the Vuelta a Pais Vasco, where he finished 10th overall, Uran finished 33rd in the TT in the 27k tt, losing nearly 2 minutes to Valverde.

So Uran has not been TT well recently, although we know he has put in great performances in the past. Landa put in a good performance in the Spanish National TT, but hasn't done any other great TT's this year.

Either way, it seems Froome's rivals will have to put in about two minutes into him through the alps to make this a competitive race.

These situations aren't comparable. The second TT has a climb which will help the climbers. The TT is also at the end of 3 weeks of racing. Also, some riders rode "not to lose" in the first TT. Guys will take risks

 

[deValtos]

There's only really 19km of flat in the 2nd TT. You'd expect Bardet/Aru/Uran could complete the steep climb an descent in roughly the same time (unless we see something different in the alps.)

I reckon a more realistic estimate is 50 seconds to Aru and Bardet. Uran is so hard to call since he's so inconsistent, could be anything from 25 seconds to maybe 1min10 back.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Landa is not a team leader; how can we take his opening TT into consideration?

 

[Juan Pelota]

Durden93,

Yes of course, after 3 weeks of racing things change. However, that's a variable they all share. And they are all climbers, so I don't think that 1 km will favor any of them great over the others (if so..who?).

What are your predictions then? Do they differ wildly from those above?

 

[Juan Pelota]

Re:

Landa is not a team leader; how can we take his opening TT into consideration?

You are right, Landa wasn't the team leader. Neither was Gerant Thomas.

Nor Kwiat, or Kiriyenka.

Now maybe Landa wasn't going full gas, do we know for sure? Was his time out of line with other rides he has done in the past?

 

[Eagle]

Re: Re:

Landa is not a team leader; how can we take his opening TT into consideration?

You are right, Landa wasn't the team leader. Neither was Gerant Thomas.

Nor Kwiat, or Kiriyenka.

Now maybe Landa wasn't going full gas, do we know for sure? Was his time out of line with other rides he has done in the past?

He finished 2nd at the national championships the week before

 

[Juan Pelota]

Re: Re:

Landa is not a team leader; how can we take his opening TT into consideration?

You are right, Landa wasn't the team leader. Neither was Gerant Thomas.

Nor Kwiat, or Kiriyenka.

Now maybe Landa wasn't going full gas, do we know for sure? Was his time out of line with other rides he has done in the past?

He finished 2nd at the national championships the week before

I mentioned that in my post.

 

[Juan Pelota]

Mikel Landa's placing in TT's recently

Stage 1 Tour = 102nd
Spanish National TT = 2nd
Rut de Sol = 20th
Tirreno Adriatico = 63rd
Giro = 38th, 44th (lost 2:00 to Tom D over 29 km. )

 

[Tonton]

The first ITT was in the rain...I would discard it as a reference.

Froome -
Aru @ 30"
Uran @ 35"
Bardet-Martin-Yates @ 40-45"

For what it's worth.

 

[Juan Pelota]

The first ITT was in the rain...I would discard it as a reference.

Froome -
Aru @ 30"
Uran @ 35"
Bardet-Martin-Yates @ 40-45"

For what it's worth.

Only 30 seconds for Aru, that is quite the hot take.

 

[JS10]

The first ITT was in the rain...I would discard it as a reference.

Froome -
Aru @ 30"
Uran @ 35"
Bardet-Martin-Yates @ 40-45"

For what it's worth.

Mmmmm-I think this suggestion was designed to get response.If One takes last yrs TT as the reference point Aru conceded over 3 mins over 37kms.To concede only 30 secs over 22kms -I don't think so!!.Adrenalin is not going to overcome technique and the basic laws of Physics.Anything under 1 Min would be miraculous ,1.30 likely

 

[Robert5091]

To make it interesting everyone will need 3 minutes on Froome. There's one long flat stage on Friday so it'll be full-speed on the ITT.

 

[Juan Pelota]

The first ITT was in the rain...I would discard it as a reference.

Froome -
Aru @ 30"
Uran @ 35"
Bardet-Martin-Yates @ 40-45"

For what it's worth.

Mmmmm-I think this suggestion was designed to get response.If One takes last yrs TT as the reference point Aru conceded over 3 mins over 37kms.To concede only 30 secs over 22kms -I don't think so!!.Adrenalin is not going to overcome technique and the basic laws of Physics.Anything under 1 Min would be miraculous ,1.30 likely

Agree with this

 

[TMP402]

Something to consider: Uran was riding his spare TT bike on Stage 1.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Tony Martin to win
Froome @ 30 s
Uran @ 1 min
rest of GC @ 1:30 min